يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Online service is used to be as Pay-Per-Use in Cloud computing. Service user need not be in a long time contract with cloud service providers. Service level agreements (SLAs) are understandings marked between a cloud service providers and others, for example, a service user, intermediary operator, or observing operators. Since cloud computing is an ongoing technology giving numerous services to basic business applications and adaptable systems to manage online agreements are significant. SLA maintains the quality-of-service to the cloud user. If service provider fails to maintain the required service SLA is considered to be SLA violated. The main aim is to minimize the SLA violations for maintain the QoS of their cloud users. In this res
... Show MoreThe effective application of the method of measuring and evaluating performance according to the Balanced Scorecard the need for an information system a comprehensive and integrated for internal and external environment, Which requires the need to develop accounting information system in general and cost management information systems to suit the particular requirements of the environment in terms of the development of modern methods of measurement to include the use of some methods that have proven effective in measuring and evaluating performance.
The research problem in need of management to develop methods of measuring and evaluating performance through the use of both financial measures and non
... Show MoreSome types of the fungus Aspergillus were isolated from some hospitals in the city of Baghdad (Imam Ali Hospital and Sadr General Hospital). The samples were taken by Transport media at a rate of three replicates of each place isolated from samples from different places within the hospital (waste, baths, the sick beds, corridors and room floors) for the purpose of isolating and diagnosing the fungus on the Czapeck Dox Agar media. It was noticed that the spread rate of fungus Aspergillus was 70% compared to other species that have emerged during the isolation process of the Sabouraud's Dextrose Agar media. The species A.niger (56.25%) was considered the most common type of fungus visible during the isolation process of the Imam Ali Hospit
... Show MoreThe article considers semantic and stylistic motivations for using obsolete lexicon (historicisms) in the text of a work of art. The specifics of the functioning of this process are presented against the background of the features of the contemporary Russian literary language. Attention is focused on the fact that the layer of obsolete lexical units belongs to a number of nationally specific vocabulary, the development of which forms an understanding of the nature of the actualized language. In addition, it should be noted that the semantics of historicisms is culturally commensurate: the latter is explained by the fact that the deactuation of linguistic units is positioned as parallel to the sociocultural and political changes.
... Show MoreThe logistic regression model is an important statistical model showing the relationship between the binary variable and the explanatory variables. The large number of explanations that are usually used to illustrate the response led to the emergence of the problem of linear multiplicity between the explanatory variables that make estimating the parameters of the model not accurate.
... Show MoreThis research aims to knowledge of the scope of applying the international specification of which is regarded to occupational health and safety management system (OHSAS 18001) second edition for year 2007 by The AL-Mammon Factory / The General Company For Vegetable Oils Industry in order to diagnosis the gap between specification requirements and reality by using the checklist made based upon the items of the specification, after translating the English copy into Arabic. The results of the research and analysis that occupational health and safety management system in comparison to the specification requirements in all of its main items, which was (%22.26) applied and documented partly, this refer to the existence of great gap (%7
... Show MoreThis research sheds light on the morphological structure of nouns and verbs in the novel "ASTONISHMENT" by the novelist Aharon Applefield by analysing selected models from the novel in a morphological analysis in order to identify the most important morphological features of this structure according to a statistical analytical approach.
The morphological structure is the main pillar of the linguistic structure of the literary text. Morphology is the science that studies the word, by which its structure and original letters are known, and the change that has occurred to it. The aesthetics of the fictional text is reflected in this structure, through which the writer conveys his ideas and narrations to the reader. The research
... Show MoreDiabetic retinopathy is one of most important complications of diabetes mellitus that can be treated by Nd:YAG laser. Laser is used in ophthalmic practice for photocoagulation and photodisruption. The purpose of this study is to evaluate changes in immunological ,hematological and biochemical values after treatment of diabetic retinopathy by laser. Blood samples from 10 patients suffering from diabetic retinopathy were taken before and after laser treatment to coagulate retina to prevent leakage and hemorraghe to avoid deterioration of vision.In group one (4 patients = 40%), blood tests were done one day after treatment. In group two (6 patients =60%) tests were done 7 days after treatment with laser. The study showed no clear changes in
... Show MoreXanthomonas axonopodis pv glycines (Xag) is a pathogen that causes pustule disease in soybeans. Many
techniques for controlling this disease have been widely developed, one of which is the use of biological agents.
Bacillus sp. from the soybean phyllosphere is a biological agent that has the potential to suppress the
development of pustule disease. One of the biological control mechanisms is through biochemical induction
of plant resistance which includes the accumulation of phenols, salicylic acid compounds, and peroxidase
enzymes. Bacillus subtilis JB12 and Bacillus velezensis ST32 are two bacteria isolated from the soybean
phyllosphere which have previously been known to suppress Xag through an anti
The present art icle discusses the prob lems of understanding and translating the lingu istic and cult ural aspect of a foreign lite rary text. The article considers the trans lation process through the pr ism of cult ural orientation. In the process of transl ation, the nati onal cultural iden tity should be expressed to the max imum extent, through all me ans of expre ssion that include imagery and inton ation. In addi tion to the author's sty le, special atte ntion should al so be pa id to tro pes, phraseological uni ts, colloquial wo rds and dial&n
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