يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Abstract:
This study aims to identify the level of patients’ satisfaction among a sample of hospitalized patients in the targeted hospital (Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital, and Al-Yarmook Teaching Hospital). Moreover, this study highlights the reality of services for patients, especially in the targeted governmental teaching hospitals. The Patient Satisfaction with Nursing Care (PSNCS) has been measured in these hospitals through the revised scale by Tang et al, (2013).This scale includes four major domains; Health Information (5 items), Influencing Support (4 items), Decision Control (4 items), Specialized Technical Competence (7 items). The method of surveying patients’ opinions about the degree
... Show MoreThe search in these subjects makes an importanl accomplishment in the study of the scientific life in that (era) specialy what the wonen had from a scientific and social level in that(age) the studies of the scientestis which were brilliant in the this era never hed the same as the first scientests . because of the common mistakes toward some resesrchers
The educational service industry is one of the most negatively affected industries by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Government agencies have taken many measures to slow its spread, and then restrict movement and gatherings and stop recreational activities. Furthermore, the repercussions of the curfew had a significant impact due to the interruption in actual attendance for students and employees, and the severity of the Covid-19 crisis and its (economic, social, security, humanitarian and behavioral) effects on all societies and work sectors is no secret to anyone. Iraq, like other countries, was also affected by the negative impact of Covid-19 pandemic in all fields of institutional work, especially public fields, and specifically t
... Show Moreيختبر البحث الحالي علاقة الأثر والارتباط بين إدارة المعرفة التنظيمية (المتمثلة قيادة المعرفة، تنظيم المعرفة، عمليات المعرفة، ثقافة المعرفة، تطبيق المعرفة، تقاسم المعرفة) ومتغير (رأس مال الزبون) في مجموعة من المصارف الأهلية في محافظة النجف إذ تمثلت مشكلة الدراسة بمدى دور إدارة المعرفة في هذه المصارف فضلاً عن الزبائن الذين يتعاملون معها، وقد استخدمت استمارة الاستبيان كأداة رئيسة لجمع البيانات إذ تم تو
... Show MoreThe rental activity receives "significant" interest from accounting organizations interested in issuing accounting standards worldwide, such as the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB). As leases represents an important source of finance for economic units as an alternative to financing assets through purchase or borrowing. Professional organizations have focused on addressing the situation of extra-budgetary funding through which the lessee hides many leases that are classified as financing without It shows in the budget, which gives an incorrect picture of the reality of the financial situation of economic unity, IASB has issued IFRS 16, which terminates off- Balance s
... Show MoreThe study aims to achieve several objectives, including follow-up scientific developments and transformations in the modern concepts of the Holistic Manufacturing System for the purpose of identifying the methods of switching to the entrances of artificial intelligence, and clarifying the mechanism of operation of the genetic algorithm under the Holonic Manufacturing System, to benefit from the advantages of systems and to achieve the maximum savings in time and cost of machines Using the Holistic Manufacturing System method and the Genetic algorithm, which allows for optimal maintenance time and minimizing the total cost, which in turn enables the workers of these machines to control the vacations in th
... Show MoreThis research aims to examine the effectiveness of a teaching strategy based on the cognitive model of Daniel in the development of achievement and the motivation of learning the school mathematics among the third intermediate grade students in the light of their study of "Systems of Linear Equations”. The research was conducted in the first semester (1439/1440AH), at Saeed Ibn Almosaieb Intermediate School, in Arar, Saudi Arabia. A quasi-experimental design has been used. In addition, a (pre & post) achievement test (20 Questions) and a (pre & post) scale of learning motivation to the school mathematics (25 Items) have been applied on two groups: a control group (31Students), and an experimental group (29 Students). The resear
... Show MoreHealth service institutions suffer from challenges resulting from the great changes that our world is witnessing today. This has affected the value that these institutions add to the patient.
This research aims to identify the effect of integrating each of the techniques of QFD and value engineering for the health services provided to the patient to improve the value for him and thus obtain his satisfaction, which is reflected in the reputation of the surveyed hospitals. To achieve this, the descriptive analytical method was used, and a questionnaire was designed to collect the necessary data, which represents a measure of this research. The questionnaire was distri
... Show MoreMultimedia is one of the most important elements of modern educational media and must be used in educational websites in order to disseminate knowledge on a large scale and should be used to provide scientific information to all, as the current research tried to explore the possibilities of employing them in the design of educational websites and highlight their role in promoting the scientific aspects of the user. This study included four axes, the first of which was devoted to the introduction which includes the problem of research, its importance, objectives and its objective, temporal and spatial limitations, which were limited to the study of the main pages of Arabic educational websites published in 2019. The second axis cont
... Show MoreLand use change, particularly the expansion of urban areas and associated human activities at the expense of natural and semi-natural areas, is a major ecological issue in urban areas around the world. Climate change being a very strong additional driver for changing the temperature and habitat in the cities. This also applies to Baghdad, Iraq, where urbanisation and climate change exerts a major pressure on the natural habitats of the city, and thus may affect the ability of city planners to adapt to future climate change scenarios. Here we present evidence of substantial growth in urban areas, increases in temperature, and degradation of natural vegetation within Baghdad city by using Remote Sensing techniques and an assessment for the
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