يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Optical burst switching (OBS) network is a new generation optical communication technology. In an OBS network, an edge node first sends a control packet, called burst header packet (BHP) which reserves the necessary resources for the upcoming data burst (DB). Once the reservation is complete, the DB starts travelling to its destination through the reserved path. A notable attack on OBS network is BHP flooding attack where an edge node sends BHPs to reserve resources, but never actually sends the associated DB. As a result the reserved resources are wasted and when this happen in sufficiently large scale, a denial of service (DoS) may take place. In this study, we propose a semi-supervised machine learning approach using k-means algorithm
... Show Moreيهدف البحث إلى تحضير سلسلة من معقدات العناصر الانتقالية ثنائية التكافؤ(المنغنيز, الكوبلت, النيكل, الخارصين والكادميوم) مع المركب الجديد(KL) والمشتق من تفاعل ثنائي كبريتيد الكاربون و المركب الوسطي (HD). شخصت المعقدات ذات الصيغة العامة[M(L)2] بواسطة طيف الرنين النووي المغناطيسي البروتوني والكربوني للمركب الجديد وقياسات الأشعة تحت الحمراء والطيف الإلكتروني ودرجات الانصهار و التوصيلية المولارية و ت
... Show MoreThis paper is submitted as anew approach to simulate manufacturing control & planning system to define the problem of designing control system on the needs for materials.
Production planning & control is a total and complex operation, resides in the essence of manufacturing companies operations. The successful process of production planning and control systems is critical for the staying of manufacturing organizations in markets leading to the increasing consumer competition and which dominate most of manufacturing sectors because of the market oriented economy , thus , what has happened previously , that the companies possessed a great inventory of crude material, components, and groupings and they use in flexible techni
... Show MoreCardiovascular disease is one of the most common comorbidities associated with enlarged extremities, occurring in 60 % of patients with acromegaly. The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship of growth hormone and insulin such as growth factor-1 with obesity, dyslipidemia, hyperglycemia, and pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-2, IL-6, IL-10), as risk factors for cardiovascular disorder in acromegaly patients. Eighty subjects were included and categorized into two groups: 40 acromegaly patients and 40 of the control group. The results indicated weight excess, hyperglycemia, hypertension, lipid disorder, and elevated levels of interleukins (2, 6, and 10). The correlation of both GH and IGF-1 with each of weight, BMI, systolic blood p
... Show MoreThis research aimed to definite Blending learning (BL) technique, and to know the impact of its use onacademic achievement in Biology course of second class students in secondary special schools in Omdurman Locality and attitudes towards it, to achieve this; researcher adopted the experimental method. The sample was selected of (41) students, chosen from Atabiyah school, were divided into two equals groups: one experimental group reached (26) students studied by using the BL technique, and the second control group (25) students have been taught in the traditional method.
Data has collected by using two tools: achievement test and a questionnaire for measuring the attitudes towards Blend
... Show MoreThe Accounting Disclosure for non-current intangible assets is necessary to rely on accounting information by decision makers in the economic unity, two international accounting standards issued (IAS16,36), which aims to provide the foundations of the recognition, measurement and disclosure of appropriate assets Non-current tangible. (IAS16) allowed to use re-evaluation approach to measure assets entrance due to the inadequacy of the accounting information resulting from the application of the historical cost of the entrance under increasing technical developments and continuing that leave clear their effects on non-current intangible assets, As well as the requirements of what came (IAS36) the importance of accounting for the impairment
... Show MoreThe current paper aims to study the different forms by which the theme of labyrinth imposes itself as a preferred narrative structure in the novels of the French writer Patrick Modiano. Theoretically speaking, the current research paper will limit itself to the theoretical framework of the textual poetics which relies on the study of literary texts without paying much attention, neither to the context, nor to the life of its author. The analysis of the strong and varied links that Modiano's novels establish with labyrinth represents a field which has not received adequate attention by the critical studies dedicated to this French writer. As it will be shown throughout the current paper, Modiano views labyrint
... Show MoreThis work studies the role of serum apelin-36 and Glutathione S-transferases (GST) activity in association with the hormonal, metabolic profiles and their link to the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in healthy and patients' ladies with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A total of fifty-four (PCOS) patients and thirty-one healthy woman as a control have been studied. The PCOS patients were subdivided on the basis of body-mass-index (BMI), into 2-subgroups (the first group was obese-PCOS with BMI ≥ 30 and the second group was non-obese PCOS MBI<30). Fasting-insulin-levels and Lipid-profile, Homeostatic-model assessment-of-insulin-resistance (HOMA-IR), follicle-stimulating-hormone (FSH), luteinizing-hormone (LH), testosterone and
... Show MoreThis research aim at finding out the impact of using the strategy of shape V on the achievement of the students of the Department of Artistic Education in the subject of "Principles of scientific Research ". This strategy is one of the cognitive strategies used in this topic . To verify the aim of the research ,the two researchers have put the following null hypothesis:-There are no significant differences on the level of 0,05 among the average degrees of the students of the experimental group in their answers on the topics of the pre and post cognitive achievement tests of the subject of "principles of scientific Research " . The two researchers have adopted the experimental approach which consists of one group . the population of the r
... Show More