يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
It is easy to talk about democracy, but it is difficult to practice. We talk about postmodernism, but difficult to be embodied in the ground. Yet, the age of democracy and modernity at the same time prompted the researcher to try to find a media concept for it. It does not mean that this concept has not yet formed. But the rooting of democracy and the approaching of states and groups towards it, made it necessary to by studied again.
The relationship between democracy and the media has made them look like one concept. The existence of one is linked to the existence of the other. The reality is only a linguistic formulation, but the social and cultural aspect is related to democracy origin
... Show MoreThe main objective of this research is to design and select a composite plate to be used in fabricating wing skins of light unman air vehicle (UAV). The mechanical properties, weight and cost are the basis criteria of this selection. The fiber volume fraction, fillers and type of fiber with three levels for each were considered to optimize the composite plate selection. Finite element method was used to investigate the stress distribution on the wing at cruise flight condition in addition to estimate the maximum stress. An experiments plan has been designed to get the data on the basis of Taguchi technique. The most effective parameters at the process to be find out by employing L9
... Show MoreWaste recycling is one of the modern means of treating waste and minimizing its harmful effects that have caused problems for all countries of the world through the disposal of them in a safe and healthy manner as well as achieving economic and social benefits to the United Nations, and through the goals of sustainable development. 2015-2013 seeks to solve the environmental problems, including various peoples of the world, through various projects and programs, including waste recycling. Here is the question of whether there is a relationship between waste recycling and the goals of sustainable development, the research seeks to answer through five categories to determine the type of relationship between waste recycling and the g
... Show MoreDamascus has great importance throughout its history and has increased in the Umayyad period, It was interested the by Caliphs, and became the capital of the Islam, But the late Umayyad era has witness of troubles and political, this led to collapse the Umayyad state and take the Abbasid rule, despite the neglect of the Abbasids for this city and they left to others, but it remains of great concern by some of the Abbasid caliphs.
Damascus has great importance throughout its history and has increased in the Umayyad period, It was interested the by Caliphs, and became the capital of the Islam, But the late Umayyad era has witness of troubles and political, this led to collapse the Umayyad state and take the Abbasid rule, despite the neglect of the Abbasids for this city and they left to others, but it remains of great concern by some of the Abbasid caliphs.
العراق ومنطقة الخليج
Abstract
The current research aims to develop a guidance program suitable for high school students and apply it to them in order to ensure the reduction of addiction to the use of different means of communication. The researchers used the scale of addiction to the means of communication (SAS) to measure the level of addiction as well as to identify the impact of the proposed guidance program in reducing the degree of addiction to communication. It was applied to a sample of (20) female students divided equally into two groups: an experimental group of (10) female students and a control group of (10) female students from the secondary level in a school under the department of education in the education of the alma
... Show MoreThe present paper aims at investigating the linguistic image portrayed by UNICEF reports on the Iraqi child from a critical discourse analysis perspective during Covid19 pandemic (2020). The paper attempts to fill a gap in research literature concerning the linguistic construction of the Iraqi child by the UNICEF reports during the critical health crisis of Covid19. Van Leeuwen’s (2008) approach of social actor representation has been adopted for this purpose. From Van Leeuwen’s approach, the category of determination (single determination and overdetermination) has been selected to be the main analytical tool for its high compatibility with the set of objectives put forward to figure out how such a globally effective and
... Show Moreهذه الورقة البحثية تهدف الى مناقشة سبل تطوير التعليم العالي في العالم العربي والارتقاء به لخلق راسمال بشري وثقافي قادر على مواجهة تحديات العصر، فالتنمية الاقتصادية في العصر الحالي ما عادت تعتمد على المواد الاولية بل على القيمة الابداعية للانسان التي اصبحت اساسية في المنافسة الحالية بين الشعوب الانسانية و اصبح الفكر المبدع هو المنافس الحقيقي المهم حيث تصنع احدث الاجهزة الحديثة باحجام صغيرة ومواد اولية اقل
... Show More