يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Single Point Incremental Forming (SPIF) is a forming technique of sheet material based on layered manufacturing principles. The sheet part is locally deformed through horizontal slices. The moving locus of forming tool (called as toolpath) in these slices constructed to the finished part was performed by the CNC technology. The toolpath was created directly from CAD model of final product. The forming tool is a Ball-end forming tool, which was moved along the toolpath while the edges of sheet material were clamped rigidly on fixture.
This paper presented an investigation study of thinning distribution of a conical shapes carried out by incremental forming and the validation of finite element method to evaluate the limits of the p
... Show MoreIs the subject of environmental analysis of the important issues that should occupy the attention of the departments of banks in general and banks in particular, the research sample, regardless of their size and the nature of its activity, So if the current era and witnessing rapid developments and changes, making the banking environment is more complex and interconnected than ever, And it became not possible for banks to be aware and understand the external environment variables without an analysis of the various constituent elements and influential heavily in its financial and administrative,Therefore research aims to find out the relationship between the external environment and banking facilities analysis application on the Rafidain
... Show MoreOvako Working Postures Analyzing System (OWAS) is a widely used method for studying awkward working postures in workplaces. This study with OWAS, analyzed working postures for manual material handling of laminations at stacking workstation for water pump assembly line in Electrical Industrial Company (EICO) / Baghdad. A computer program, WinOWAS, was used for the study. In real life workstation was found that more than 26% of the working postures observed were classified as either AC2 (slightly harmful), AC3 (distinctly harmful). Postures that needed to be corrected soon (AC3) and corresponding tasks, were identified. The most stressful tasks observed were grasping, handling, and positioning of the laminations from workers. The construct
... Show MoreIn this paper a theoretical attempt is made to determine whether changes in the aorta diameter at different location along the aorta can be detected by brachial artery measurement. The aorta is divided into six main parts, each part with 4 lumps of 0.018m length. It is assumed that a desired section of the aorta has a radius change of 100,200, 500%. The results show that there is a significant change for part 2 (lumps 5-8) from the other parts. This indicates that the nearest position to the artery gives the significant change in the artery wave pressure while other parts of the aorta have a small effect.
Poetry is regarded an interesting area of inquiry in linguistic studies due to its eccentric and aesthetic use of language. A lot of studies have been carried out so far for the analysis of poetry, yet few have dealt with pastoral poetry. The present research attempts to investigate the language of pastoral poetry in two different languages i.e. English and Arabic with the aim of finding similarities and differences. The data of the study consists of one English and one Arabic pastoral poems. Leech and Short's (2007) checklist is used as a model for analysis. The findings of the study reveal that there are more similarities than differences between English and Arabic pastoral poems as the poems rely on contrast
... Show Morehave suffered from deteriorating residential neighborhoods, poor economic, social and urban living conditions of the population and deteriorating the infrastructural and superior services. These problems were the secretions of these cities' rapid urbanization. Based on the principles of sustainable urban planning and in order to achieve adequate opportunities for the lives of the population and provide them with sustainable livelihoods, policies have emerged to upgrade along the lines of community participation and programmes to reform and develop those neighbourhoods, raise their efficiency and make them livable. Thus, the problem of research was identified "The absence of a comprehensive cognitive perception of the most prominent facto
... Show MoreLoanwords are the words transferred from one language to another, which become essential part of the borrowing language. The loanwords have come from the source language to the recipient language because of many reasons. Detecting these loanwords is complicated task due to that there are no standard specifications for transferring words between languages and hence low accuracy. This work tries to enhance this accuracy of detecting loanwords between Turkish and Arabic language as a case study. In this paper, the proposed system contributes to find all possible loanwords using any set of characters either alphabetically or randomly arranged. Then, it processes the distortion in the pronunciation, and solves the problem of the missing lette
... Show MoreThe goal of this research to identify a set of criteria that can be measured on the basis of which the effectiveness of the application of the Balanced Scorecard in the Jordanian Public Institutions in order to identify the basic requirements to ensure the application of balanced performance measures. The study population consisted of the staff of the Public Institution for Social Security - Irbid of directors of departments and heads of departments and administrative staff, was the use of a random sample of (50) an employee and the employee. The questionnaire was used as a tool to collect data, and as a result of subjecting these standards for the field test and the use of statistical analysis tools to the results of the study c
... Show MoreThe evaluation of banks plays an important role in maintaining the interests of customers with the bank as well as providing continuous supervision and control by the Central Bank. The Central Bank of Iraq conducted an assessment of the Iraqi banks through the implementation of the CAMEL model during a certain period. This evaluation did not continue. The research provides continuity to the Central Bank's assessment and as a step to continue the evaluation process for all banks through the use of the CAMEL model. ROA and ROE by using the regression model for four Iraqi banks registered in the Iraqi market for securities during the period 2010-2016. The results showed that the capital and profitability indicators have a significan
... Show MoreAbstract