يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The performance evaluation process requires a set of criteria and for the purpose of measuring the level of performance achieved by the Unit and the actual level of development of its activities, and in view of the changes and of rapid and continuous variables surrounding the Performance is a reflection of the unit's ability to achieve its objectives, as these units are designed to achieve the objectives of exploiting a range of economic resources available to it, and the performance evaluation process is a form of censorship, focusing on the analysis of the results obtained from the achievement All its activities with a view to determining the extent to which the Unit has achieved its objectives using the resources available to it and h
... Show MoreThe goal of this work is demonstrating, through the gradient observation of a of type linear ( -systems), the possibility for reducing the effect of any disturbances (pollution, radiation, infection, etc.) asymptotically, by a suitable choice of related actuators of these systems. Thus, a class of ( -system) was developed based on finite time ( -system). Furthermore, definitions and some properties of this concept -system and asymptotically gradient controllable system ( -controllable) were stated and studied. More precisely, asymptotically gradient efficient actuators ensuring the weak asymptotically gradient compensation system ( -system) of known or unknown disturbances are examined. Consequently, under convenient hypo
... Show MoreThe research aims to estimate missing values using covariance analysis method Coons way to the variable response or dependent variable that represents the main character studied in a type of multi-factor designs experiments called split block-design (SBED) so as to increase the accuracy of the analysis results and the accuracy of statistical tests based on this type of designs. as it was noted in the theoretical aspect to the design of dissident sectors and statistical analysis have to analyze the variation in the experience of experiment )SBED) and the use of covariance way coons analysis according to two methods to estimate the missing value, either in the practical side of it has been implemented field experiment wheat crop in
... Show MoreThe purpose of current study is to analyze the computer textbooks content for intermediate stage in Iraq according to the theory of multiple intelligence. By answering the following question “what is the percentage of availability of multiple intelligence in the content of the computer textbooks on intermediate stage (grade I, II) for the academic year (2017-2018)? The researcher followed the descriptive analytical research approach (content analysis), and adopted an explicit idea for registration. The research tool was prepared according the Gardner’s classification of multiple intelligence. It has proven validity and reliability. The study found the percentage of multiple intelligence in the content of computer textbooks for the in
... Show Moreيهدف هذا البحث إلى تحليل محتوى كتابي الحاسوب للمرحلة المتوسطة في العراق وفقاً لنظرية الذكاءات المتعددة عن طريق الإجابة عن السؤال الآتي: ما نسبة توافر الذكاءات المتعددة في محتوى كتابي الحاسوب المقرران على طلبة المرحلة المتوسطة (الصفين الأول والثاني) للعام الدراسي (2017-2018) م؟ ولتحقيق هدف البحث اتبعت الباحثة منهج البحث الوصفي التحليلي (تحليل المحتوى)، واعتمدت الفكرة الصريحة وحده للتسجيل، أما أداة البحث فهي أداة
... Show MoreThe research considers The Analysis Dimensions of The organizational citizen ship Behavior for a sample of the Faculty of the university of Baghdad through the five Dimensions of citizenship ((Altruism– couscientiosness– sportsmanship courtesy– civic virtue))
The sample contains (120) professor from four colleges of the Baghdad university.
The most Important conelusion is the rise of citizenship behavior level for the Iraqi professor through his generaliaed compliance for most dimensions of the citizenship behavior the most important recommanelations presenteel in research is the encouragement and development for this behavior because of its oby viosis impact on the p
... Show MoreThe aim of this research is to diagnose the impact of competitive dimensions represented by quality, cost, time, flexibility on the efficiency of e-learning, The research adopted the descriptive analytical method by identifying the impact of these dimensions on the efficiency of e-learning, as well as the use of the statistical method for the purpose of eliciting results. The research concluded that there is an impact of the competitive dimensions on the efficiency of e-learning, as it has been proven that the special models for each of the research hypotheses are statistically significant and at a level of significance of 5%, and that each of these dimensions has a positive impact on the dependent variable, and the research recommended
... Show Moreيهدف هذا البحث الى تصميم قائمة بمؤشرات القيم العلمية والاخلاقية التي ينبغي توافرها في محتوى كتاب الحاسوب للصف الثاني المتوسط، وتحليل محتوى الكتاب المذكور آنفاً وفقاً لها، وذلك عن طريق الإجابة عن السؤال الآتي: ما نسبة توافر القيم العلمية والأخلاقية في محتوى كتاب الحاسوب المُعد لطلبة الصف الثاني المتوسط الصادر من وزارة التربية العراقية/ المديرية العامة للمناهج في العام الدراسي ( 2017-2018) م؟ ولتحقيق هدفا البحث أ
... Show MoreCritical buckling and natural frequencies behavior of laminated composite thin plates subjected to in-plane uniform load is obtained using classical laminated plate theory (CLPT). Analytical investigation is presented using Ritz- method for eigenvalue problems of buckling load solutions for laminated symmetric and anti-symmetric, angle and cross ply composite plate with different elastic supports along its edges. Equation of motion of the plate was derived using principle of virtual work and solved using modified Fourier displacement function that satisfies general edge conditions. Various numerical investigation were studied to exhibit a convergence and accuracy of the present solution for considering some design parameters such as edge
... Show MoreThis paper deals with the design and implementation of an ECG system. The proposed system gives a new concept of ECG signal manipulation, storing, and editing. It consists mainly of hardware circuits and the related software. The hardware includes the circuits of ECG signals capturing, and system interfaces. The software is written using Visual Basic languages, to perform the task of identification of the ECG signal. The main advantage of the system is to provide a reported ECG recording on a personal computer, so that it can be stored and processed at any time as required. This system was tested for different ECG signals, some of them are abnormal and the other is normal, and the results show that the system has a good quality of diagno
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