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تحليل وقياس الاستدامة المالية لصندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي في العراق للمدة 2004-2018
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يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of financial policy instruments to reduce the deficit of the State budget to the IMF terms: Applied Research at the Iraqi Ministry of finance - budget service
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Abstract search seeks to clarify the role and the importance of financial and fiscal policy adopted by the Iraqi Government during the years (2015 – 2018) to meet federal public deficit, as the Iraqi economy to shocks from falling global oil prices and terrorist attack ISIS, so the State budget suffered from a severe lack of income as a result of its reliance on revenues from selling crude oil and in return the high proportion of public expenditures. Especially military to counter these attacks that by studying the results of the implementation of budgets and analysis and statement Causes of disabilities and assessment of these policies and procedures imposed by the International Monetary Fund. the research aims to show how increased g

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Role of the Social Networking Site (Facebook) in the Adjustment of Youth Trends / Community Issues and Problems
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Recent technological developments in the mass media a major paradigm shift in important segments of society, particularly among young people in particular social networking sites including (Facebook) .
it was able to link the sprawling parts of the world and paved the way for all the communities of convergence and exchange views, ideas and desires as provided by their ability to communicate through the use of video clips,pictures,share files, chat, communicate and direct interaction between the audience for this the means. Wondered problem Find the role that can be played using the university youth to the social networking site (Facebook ) to modify their attitudes or their interest in Iraqi society issues, With focused research objec

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 01 2023
Journal Name
Mustansiriyah Journal Of Arts
The Significance of Utilizing the Social Networking Site (LinkedIn) Among Researchers and Specialists in the Field of Information and Knowledge Technologies
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This study aims to identify both the importance of using (LinkedIn) and its drawbacks for researchers and specialists in the field of information and knowledge technologies. The study relied mainly on the statistical method (analytical method) from the collection of data tools (questionnaire) that was distributed electronically (Google Forms) to the sample community of (55) instructors. The feedback received illustrates that (46) instructors among those who participated in the questionnaire subscribed to (LinkedIn) and the rest did not. Their data was analyzed statistically, and the general arithmetic mean and the hypothetical mean was extracted for them to achieve the objectives of the study and prove their hypotheses. The site positively

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
المناخ المدرسي وعلاقته بالتكيف الاجتماعي لدى تلاميذ الصف الاول الابتدائي في محافظة اربيل/ المركز
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The research aims at defining the level of the school environment and the social adjustment of the sample due to the sex and the relation among them. The two researchers have stated the school environment scale counting on the theoretical background and previous studies. As for the social adjustment scale, the researchers have used the scale of (Al-Kindy, 2001) and the school environment scale is implicated on (112) students. The schools and the students were elected in a random way. Whereas the social adjustment scale is implicated on (30) teachers in order to know their ratio of the student's adjustment. The results have appeared the satisfaction of the students on the private school environment within their school aspects (the directo

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 21 2018
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Ways to face rumors in the social networking site Facebook: Research thesis from the PhD thesis
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The research deals with the subject of «ways to face rumors in the site of social networking Facebook», a research based on a doctoral thesis, as the research dealt with rumors in the most dangerous type of new media, which sites of social communication with the global community as spreading rumors of all kinds and afflicts everyone who has eyes on him Of the audience of these sites, and aims to identify the rumors on Facebook because it is one of the most popular sites in the world and the strategy of combating the rumors published by Facebook users in their personal pages and groups that organize them, as well as identify methods and methods that can be During which the face of the rumors in the said site and eliminate them t

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun May 18 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
THE IMPACT OF ENTERTAINMENT PROGRAMS IN ARAB SATELLITE CHANNELS ON THE SOCIAL BEHAVIOR OF IRAQI YOUTH (Field study)
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Our research is based on the fact that the reflection of entertainment programs in Arab satellite channels on the social behavior of Iraqi youth … a field analysis of the Arab ldol program) and that its importance is the entertainment programs and their reflection on social behavior، which occupies
large areas of time from Satellite channels in the form of various episodes and each episode contains several categories، or in the form of templates and forms of various goals and contents، but the problem of
research boils down to (how far iraqi youth follow the entertainment programs in Arab satellite channels and what are the motives for watching the Program Arab ldol )) by For Iraqi youth and what are the positive and negative

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of value chain analysis of information in determining the most important the accounting information
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The use  analysis  value chain such  information in the provision as financial  so information quality meet and satisfy the needs of users such information , particularly investors and lenders   as the identification needs   financial information and the knowledge as their behavior influenced by that information can be based on the accounting profession to focus on improving their function in order to achieve its goal that satisfying their needs and rationalize their decisions . In accounting thought discovered fertile ground for users preferences as one of the entrances   theorising positive which is based on the need to include knowledge on accounting hypothesis that explain the

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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Social Exclusion of People Infected with Coronavirus and Its Relationship with the Length of Incubation of the Disease Fatin sabaa khamas
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The importance of social exclusion lies in the psychological problems that cause problems in social relations and mental-physical health. For this reason, the researcher set three goals for the current research: identifying the level of social exclusion among people infected with the Coronavirus. The incubation period of the virus. Social exclusion and its relationship to the duration of incubation of the disease among people infected with the Coronavirus. The result showed that the research sample does not suffer from social exclusion. The mean value for the period from

(8-14) days is the highest value followed by the period (1-7) days and the period

 (14 days or more) comes at the end. There is no statistically sig

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Social Loafing and its Relation to the Personality Traits of Kindergarten Teachers: ابتسام سعيد احمد
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The research seeks to know the social loafing of kindergarten teachers and their relation to personality traits. In order to achieve the research objectives, the researcher constructed the social loafing scale, which she applied to kindergarten teachers. The scale consists of (22) paragraphs. It has good credibility and stability. The coefficient of stability (85.0) was the retest method and (81.0) Alpha Cronbach equation. In addition, the researcher has adopted (Raymond Cattel) personality traits scale, which has been adapted to the Arab environment (Abdel Rahman and Abu Abada,1998), The scale consists of (39) paragraphs, and enjoys the apparent honesty. The measure of social loafing and the measure of personality traits was applied to

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Moral identity and its relationship to social affiliation among university students Exposed to shock pressure
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The current research aimed to identify the level of moral identity and social affiliation among students exposed to shock pressures, as well as to reveal the relationship between these variables. To achieve these objectives, the researcher adopted the diagnostic tool for the measure of post-traumatic stress disorder (PDS-5) scale (Foa, 2013) translated to Arabic language by (Imran, 2017). The researcher also adopted the moral identity scale built by (Al-Bayati, 2015) and the measure of social affiliation built by (Al-Jashami, 2013), which were applied to a random sample of (200) male and female students chose from al Anbar University. They were exposed to shock pressures. The results of the research showed that the sample has an average

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