يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The process of granting loans by banks is the confidence they give to their customers, but this trust should not be a cornerstone in granting loans even if granted these loans on the basis of sound banking should involve risks that may be exposed to the bank because of the failure of the client to meet The bank's financial obligations to the bank due to the unexpected economic conditions affecting the customers, which makes them in a state of faltering, which weaken the ability of banks to provide loans, which are the most important sources of revenue and profits, so the problem of non-performing loans is one of the main problems facing most of the banks Which impede the functioning of its work and the reasons that led to the agg
... Show MoreNewspaper headlines are described as compressed and ambiguous pieces of discourse that represent the bodies of the articles. Their main function is to provide the readers with an informative message they would have no prior idea about. Ifantidou (2009) claims that the function of a headline is to get the readers’ attention rather than providing information because it does not have to represent the whole of the article it refers to. This paper aims at examining this hypothesis in relation to scientific news headlines reported by a number of news agencies. The paper follows Halliday (1967) information structure theory by applying it on ten selected headlines; each two headlines represent one scientific discovery reported by different new
... Show MoreThis study aims at discussing how gender differences might affect communication among people. For this purpose, several TV interviews are selected and examined on the discourse level. Developing a model of analysis ,is found that certain linguistics have been used by male speakers ,whereas different aspects have been utilized my female speakers like deictic expressions and lexical items of emotion and delicacy .
The current research aims to provide a conceptual and applied frame on the subject of multi- level analysis in the research of business administration. The research tries to address some of the problems that befall the preparation of research and studies at the Arab level and local level, where the unity of theory and measurement and analysis, as well as clarify the various types of conceptual constructs and give researchers the ability to distinguish different models related to the level of analysis. On the other hand, this research provides an example of
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his project try to explain the using ability of spatial techniques for land cover change detection on regional level with the time parameter and did select for explain these abilities study case (Hewaizah marsh ) . this area apply to many big changes with the time. These changes made action on characters and behaviors of this area as well as all activities in it . This Project concerting to recognize the Using importance of remote sensing and GIS Methodology in data collecting for the changes of land use and the methodology for the analyses and getting the results for the next using as a base data for development and drawing the plans as well as in regional planning .This project focus on practical
... Show MoreThe mechanical design of elevator elements is always performed by international standards. The engineer selects the appropriate elements of elevator according to catalogues without knowing scientific details. Therefore, a theoretical analysis is achieved at two operating conditions for guide rails (1) safety gear operation, and (2) running condition with the loads unevenly distributed on the elevator car. The guide rail is considered a continuous beam with variable supports. Then the British code is listed showing the equations used in it.
The theoretical equations showed that guide rails are never subjected to stress in simultaneous combined buckling and bending in the plane, where the bending moment is exerted. It is always a c
... Show MoreOnline communication on social networks has become a never-given-up way of expressing and sharing views and opinions within the realm of all topics on earth, and that is that! A basis essential in this is the limits at which "freedom of expression" should not be trespassed so as not to fall into the expression of "hate speech". These two ends make a base in the UN regulations pertaining to human rights: One is free to express, but not to hate by expression. Hereunder, a Critical Discourse Analysis in terms of Fairclough's dialectical-relational approach (2001) is made of Facebook posts (being made by common people, and not of official nature) targeting Islam and Muslims. This is made so as to recognize these instances of "speech" a
... Show MoreSource of energy and protein Field crops considered an important needed for human
beings Due of this fact increases should appear in the quantities of their production in order to
meet the needs of continuous increasing in the population of the glope year after year ;
otherwise, an increase in the gap between the amount of production and consumption will
occur .
This study aims to reveal the geographical distribution of the potato crop in the district
of Abu – Ghraib. For this purpose, a study conducted about the cultivated areas, production
and crop yields per Dunam for period of 7 years lasted from 2005-2011.
The study shows that potato is one of the most important field crops that are grown in
the Abu –
The study population growth of the most important demographic phenomena upon which planners to meet changes in the size of the population increase is through knowledge of the requirements of population growth can be planned for the future. On this basis, Tuz District was chosen for the study of population growth, which set her period (1977-2012), and compared with the growth of the population of the province and the extent of the variation in population growth, according to the administrative units, has touched search numerical and proportional distribution of the population according to the administrative aspects of the judiciary, as well as environmental distribution.
The elimination of the study population growth dramatically
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The prevention of bankruptcy not only prolongs the economic life of the company and increases its financial performance, but also helps to improve the general economic well-being of the country. Therefore, forecasting the financial shortfall can affect various factors and affect different aspects of the company, including dividends. In this regard, this study examines the prediction of the financial deficit of companies that use the logistic regression method and its impact on the earnings per share of companies listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange. The time period of the research is from 2015 to 2020, where 33 companies that were accepted in the Iraqi Stock Exchange were selected as a sample, and the res
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