يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
the contemporary Arab scholars deal with semiotics as an approach that helps them understand the texts, its meaning, and its structural functionalism . that’s why every now and then we find some
studies and researches using semiotics as an approach in study and comparatives, some of them even used the semiotic approach in analyzing old and new texts, while others think that semiotic holds and important place in critical approaches .
even though some of them considers semiotic just a trend of fashion this really didn’t lessen the value of semiotic as a scientific and procedural approach in literary and media studies as well as in analyzing literary and journalistic texts. for this reason it is considered as an important approa
The process of granting loans by banks is the confidence they give to their customers, but this trust should not be a cornerstone in granting loans even if granted these loans on the basis of sound banking should involve risks that may be exposed to the bank because of the failure of the client to meet The bank's financial obligations to the bank due to the unexpected economic conditions affecting the customers, which makes them in a state of faltering, which weaken the ability of banks to provide loans, which are the most important sources of revenue and profits, so the problem of non-performing loans is one of the main problems facing most of the banks Which impede the functioning of its work and the reasons that led to the agg
... Show MoreThe strategic approach had a great effect on information technology analysis which relevant to business organizations. The role was explicated, through uses of the strategic leadership for these approaches to support the strategic capabilities (powers) and its contribution to reach the advantage and superiority strategy. This paper was attempt to reveal the strategic philosophy or strategic talent mind had a big role on confrontation the strategic risk and challenges. The paper was concluded by represents a wide perspective for the information technology and its effects on organizations strategic role. The topic can be considered as a rational and reasonable contribution, in addition to the opportunist pragmatic analysis will sup
... Show MoreThe mechanical design of elevator elements is always performed by international standards. The engineer selects the appropriate elements of elevator according to catalogues without knowing scientific details. Therefore, a theoretical analysis is achieved at two operating conditions for guide rails (1) safety gear operation, and (2) running condition with the loads unevenly distributed on the elevator car. The guide rail is considered a continuous beam with variable supports. Then the British code is listed showing the equations used in it.
The theoretical equations showed that guide rails are never subjected to stress in simultaneous combined buckling and bending in the plane, where the bending moment is exerted. It is always a c
... Show MoreOnline communication on social networks has become a never-given-up way of expressing and sharing views and opinions within the realm of all topics on earth, and that is that! A basis essential in this is the limits at which "freedom of expression" should not be trespassed so as not to fall into the expression of "hate speech". These two ends make a base in the UN regulations pertaining to human rights: One is free to express, but not to hate by expression. Hereunder, a Critical Discourse Analysis in terms of Fairclough's dialectical-relational approach (2001) is made of Facebook posts (being made by common people, and not of official nature) targeting Islam and Muslims. This is made so as to recognize these instances of "speech" a
... Show MoreObjective: To know the impact of social networks on the mental health of adolescents in the city of Diwaniyah.
Methodology: A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted on adolescents in preparatory schools in ALDiwaniyah
City Center, for the period from Jun 26, 2015 through to October 20, 2015. The schools were
selected from using Probability sampling (240 random samples) six schools were selected from 32 schools (20 %
from total number) the schools were chosen by writing the names of all schools on a pieces of paper and put in
bags. Then, selected six schools random, three boys schools (2 preparatory and 1 secondary) three girls schools
(2 preparatory and 1 secondary), then I chose the sample the students in grad
The current research aims to study social capital and its effect in enhancing the psychological empowerment of workers through the two variables of social capital within its dimensions (structural, relational, cognitive) and the variable of psychological empowerment within its components (ability, meaning, personal will and influence). The questionnaire was used as a main tool in the collection of data and with data collected from a sample of 168 employees in the Municipality of Samawa Municipality, which is part of the Ministry of Construction, Housing, Municipalities and Public Works. The results of the research (The impact of social capital in enhancing the psychological empowerment of workersApplied research in the Dire
... Show MoreThe study aimed to reveal the role of social capital represented by its dimensions (structural, relational, and cognitive) in strengthening the management of excellence in Azadi Hospital / Duhok. In order to reach the goal of the study, the study variables were highlighted in theory through framing concepts and literary contributions for researchers in this field, In the field, the questionnaire was used as a basic tool to collect data from the individuals in the research sample who were represented by officials and individuals working from administrators and technicians, as (120) forms were distributed to the respondents, and (110) were retrieved from them in a way that is valid for analysis. Several statistical methods have bee
... Show MoreThe purpose of the research is to identify the social capital of the Municipality of Samawah Municipality by defining the level of its three dimensions (the structural dimension, the relational dimension and the cognitive dimension) and identifying the appropriate means that contribute to increasing the structural empowerment of the workers in the Municipality of Samawah. Between the social capital and the structural empowerment of the workers. From the perspective of social capital, the researchers examined the correlation and the effect of dimensions (structural, relational, cognitive) on the structural empowerment of the workers and with data collected from a sample of (168) Samawah, which is part of the Ministry of Constructi
... Show MoreIt has aimed by this research at presenting new interpretations to diversification phenomenon and its possible effects on firm value. These interpretations are culminated by the disclosure of the distinct role of resource-based view in the study of relationship between diversification strategy and firm value. The study has conducted on a sample consisted of the largest American companies listed in Fortune 500 along with seven years period
(2005-2011). This first local attempt, which has based on panel dat--a analysis for interpreting an expected variance of firm value due to diversification strategy, may helps with a clear vision to solve the contradiction and confusion surrounded the true linkages between t