يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Technological and digital development has allowed the emergence of many methods of producing semantics on social media sites within semiotic and propagandistic frameworks. This is what made the image appear in different molds and shapes, especially as it is the first material for visual perception.
This made the Israeli propaganda discourse use it as an important tool to manage the content of suggestive messages with semiological connotations. By doing so, such tool uses social networking sites as an appropriate environment to achieve those goals, which are related to cases of manipulating emotions and minds. It, moreover, changes convictions, attitudes, trends and behaviors according to what the propaganda planner wants.
Many Isra
The study aims to highlighting the Creative Accounting practices, identifying their impact on non reliability of financial statement of Insurance companies and Iraqi Public Reinsurance Company. Certain executive managements resort to creative accounting to falsely portray a better image to financial statement users by means of a set of techniques and mechanisms. Thus, impacting the company activities, The study was carried out in state insurance companies and Iraqi Public Reinsurance Company. Miller model is adopted to measure earning management practices. It is one of the tools to detect creative accounting practices and to measure reliability of accounting information of financial statements by applying “White” scale on
... Show MoreThis research aims to introduce the general tax on sales in gordan and the most important concepts related to this type of taxes and identify the most on characteristics and stand on its role in supplying the general budget of the necessary fundig to cover the over head of the state and the factorsinfluencing it and whether such a tax has been able to chieve the desired goals.including in contribute to an important and growing role in puplic revenues or not to be able to achieve these goals through the use of descriptive and analytical technique based on the data and information relevant.wasreached some conclusion and recommendations was most important is that the general sales tax comes in
... Show MoreFinancial compensation contracts related to Hajj
Hyperbole is an obvious and intentional exaggeration in the sense that it takes things to such an extreme that the audience goes too far and then pulls itself back to a more reasonable position, i.e. it is an extravagant statement or figure of speech not intended to be taken literally. This paper focuses on the formal and functional perspectives in the analysis of hyperbole which American candidates produce in their speeches in electoral campaigns, for it is hypothesized that candidates in their electoral campaigns use hyperbolic expressions excessively to persuade voters of the objectives of their electoral campaign programs. Hence, it aims to analyze hyperbole in context to determine the range of pragmatic func
... Show MoreIn this paper the method of singular value decomposition is used to estimate the ridge parameter of ridge regression estimator which is an alternative to ordinary least squares estimator when the general linear regression model suffer from near multicollinearity.
content Analysis for Some Type of Pillows used in Iraqi houses
The main challenge of military tactical communication systems is the accessibility of relevant information on the particular operating environment required for the determination of the waveform's ideal use. The existing propagation model focuses mainly on broadcasting and commercial wireless communication with a highs transceiver antenna that is not suitable for numerous military tactical communication systems. This paper presents a study of the path loss model related to radio propagation profile within the suburban in Kuala Lumpur. The experimental path loss modeling for VHF propagation was collected from various suburban settings for the 30-88 MHz frequency range. This experiment was highly affected by ecological factors and existing
... Show MoreVitamin D receptor (VDR) is a nuclear transcription factor that controls gene expression. Its impaired expression was found to be related to different diseases. VDR also acts as a regulator of different pathways including differentiation, inflammation, calcium and phosphate absorption, etc. but there is no sufficient knowledge about the regulation of the gene itself. Therefore, a better understanding of the genetic and epigenetic factors regulating the VDR may facilitate the improvement of strategies for the prevention and treatment of diseases associated with dysregulation of VDR. In the present investigation, a set of databases and methods were used to identify putative functional elements in the VDR locus. Histone modifications, CpG I
... Show MoreThe most common cause of death is cardiovascular disease (CVD), with ischemic heart disease being the most notable type. There is a propensity to raise the sensitivity of methods in contemporary laboratory for diagnosing of CVD, and assessing key as CVD bio-indicators. The urgent task is to seek for different indicators as a hopeful tool for early detection and monitoring of myocardial infarction in blood samples only. This study comprised 117 Volunteers, recorded with both genders in the age range of 32-64 years old. The volunteers were categorized into two groups: 67patients of myocardial infarction, other group embraced 50 healthy individuals. The samples of blood were collected and directed for biochemical analysis to evaluate estr
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