يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The responsibility of the Central Bank through the implementation of its monetary policy to maintain the integrity and stability of the financial system and the economic system, because any shock, whether internal or external, may endanger the financial system and instability, so the research sheds light on the effectiveness of monetary policy in maintaining financial stability, The most important conclusion is that there is an increase in capital, which gives banks the possibility to face the risks to which they are exposed, as well as a rise in the total bad debts, which weakens its financial position, which constitutes a decline in the financial stability of these banks.
The study hypothesize that the majority of Arab countries show a poor agricultural economic efficiency which resulted in a weak productive capacity of wheat in the face of the demand, which in turn led to the fluctuation of the rate of self-sufficiency and thus increase the size of the food gap. The study aims at estimating and analyzing the food security indicators for their importance in shaping the Arabic agricultural policy, which aims to achieve food security through domestic production and reduce the import of food to less possible extent. Some of the most important results reached by the study were that the increase in the amount of consumption of wheat in the countries of t
... Show MoreThe responsibility of the Central Bank through the implementation of its monetary policy to maintain the integrity and stability of the financial system and the economic system, because any shock, whether internal or external, may endanger the financial system and instability, so the research sheds light on the effectiveness of monetary policy in maintaining financial stability, The most important conclusion is that there is an increase in capital, which gives banks the possibility to face the risks to which they are exposed, as well as a rise in the total bad debts, which weakens its financial position, which constitutes a decline in the financial stability of these banks.
Abstract:
The aim of the research is to demonstrate the impact of the professional specialization of the audit companies in the detection of fraud in the financial statements of the economic units listed in the Iraqi market for securities for the period 2014-2015 through the application of the model (Carcello) to test the hypothesis of research on the impact of professional specialization of audit companies in the detection of fraud in lists The effect of the variables was revealed through the use of statistical models of logistic regression model and correlation coefficient. After testing the hypotheses of the research, a number of conclusions were reached. The most important was the existence of a signi
... Show MoreFinancial Institutions are central to all most all Macroeconomic debates. They explain the market for money creation and Exchange the financial assets such as money stock and bonds play a central role in organizing and coordinating our economy. Financial Institutions’ position in economy is urgent position especially in the economic crises, they want to realize their profit target but this target conflicts with the target of monetary policy or fiscal policy or economic policy some time.
Financial Institution assets affect in technological factors and political factor. Those factors cause increasing or decreasing in wealth of the countries. The old classical crises was form real s
... Show MoreJudo has witnessed tremendous developments since its inception until the present day. It has been distinguished by its adaptation to the various challenges it has faced throughout the ages. Judo is one of the sports that have been affected by social, technological and cultural changes. These changes reflect its transformation from the traditional Japanese martial art to a global sport practiced. All over the world, therefore, studying the historical development of judo is important, as it provides valuable insights into the development of martial arts over a century, by studying the origins, principles and techniques of judo for the period (1880 - 1980), and also enables us to gain an understanding A deeper understanding of how the art form
... Show MoreThe research aims to Measuring the auditors' commitment with the analytical procedures of the economic units of the research sample in carrying out their professional duties and the importance of this commitment to the tax administration and the extent of their reliance on the external auditor's report and the financial statements in determining the income tax and its effect on the tax revenues.
The research depends on a main hypothesis stating that "The use of analytical procedures by the external auditor has a positive impact on the availability of confidence and credibility in the financial statements presented to the tax administration and has a positive impact on the tax revenues."
The resear
... Show MoreThe construction of development is required to develop various economic sectors with the necessity to meet the various requirement of both individuals and institutions , or through the import process , which must be commensurate with the needs of the market and the economy and development. But in fact , we find that the process of import in Iraq after 2003 took a turn dangerous excesses on limits of philosophy and objectives of the import , which is reflected at the level of national production as well as the policy of dumping and given and the lack of matching a lot of goods and materials imported for Standards and Measures of quality and stands behind it causes many of them exposure to the market and weak sectors with an overlap betwee
... Show MoreThe construction of development is required to develop various economic sectors with the necessity to meet the various requirement of both individuals and institutions , or through the import process , which must be commensurate with the needs of the market and the economy and development. But in fact , we found that the process of import in Iraq after 2003 took a turn dangerous excesses on limits of philosophy and objectives of the import , which reflected the level of national production as well as the policy of dumping and given to the lack of matching a lot of goods and materials imported for Standards and Measures of quality and stands behind it causes many of them exposure to the market and weak sectors with an o
... Show MoreTechnological and digital development has allowed the emergence of many methods of producing semantics on social media sites within semiotic and propagandistic frameworks. This is what made the image appear in different molds and shapes, especially as it is the first material for visual perception.
This made the Israeli propaganda discourse use it as an important tool to manage the content of suggestive messages with semiological connotations. By doing so, such tool uses social networking sites as an appropriate environment to achieve those goals, which are related to cases of manipulating emotions and minds. It, moreover, changes convictions, attitudes, trends and behaviors according to what the propaganda planner wants.
Many Isra