يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The transfer function model the basic concepts in the time series. This model is used in the case of multivariate time series. As for the design of this model, it depends on the available data in the time series and other information in the series so when the representation of the transfer function model depends on the representation of the data In this research, the transfer function has been estimated using the style nonparametric represented in two method local linear regression and cubic smoothing spline method The method of semi-parametric represented use semiparametric single index model, With four proposals, , That the goal of this research is comparing the capabilities of the above mentioned m
... Show MoreIn this study, we focused on the random coefficient estimation of the general regression and Swamy models of panel data. By using this type of data, the data give a better chance of obtaining a better method and better indicators. Entropy's methods have been used to estimate random coefficients for the general regression and Swamy of the panel data which were presented in two ways: the first represents the maximum dual Entropy and the second is general maximum Entropy in which a comparison between them have been done by using simulation to choose the optimal methods.
The results have been compared by using mean squares error and mean absolute percentage error to different cases in term of correlation valu
... Show MoreCapital Adequacy is on of the most importance of financial position element because its role is enhance against varions risks of Banking procese . Which this risks is a result of the nature of its operations , investment , Financing tools in addition , in order to Faced any clients withdraws un expected .
So This study aim to measure The Capital Adequacy according to basel II and explin the different risk in the Islamic Bank as aresult to nature and different investment and financing tools as participation speculation , murabah and natures of its assets and liabilities related to commercial banks .
Find out we concludes that the Islamic Banks needs to increase the ca
... Show MoreThe aim of this paper is to derive a posteriori error estimates for semilinear parabolic interface problems. More specifically, optimal order a posteriori error analysis in the - norm for semidiscrete semilinear parabolic interface problems is derived by using elliptic reconstruction technique introduced by Makridakis and Nochetto in (2003). A key idea for this technique is the use of error estimators derived for elliptic interface problems to obtain parabolic estimators that are of optimal order in space and time.
In linear regression, an outlier is an observation with large residual. In other words, it is an observation whose dependent-variable value is unusual given its values on the predictor variables. An outlier observation may indicate a data entry error or other problem.
An observation with an extreme value on a predictor variable is a point with high leverage. Leverage is a measure of how far an independent variable deviates from its mean. These leverage points can have an effect on the estimate of regression coefficients.
Robust estimation for regression parameters deals with cases that have very high leverage, and cases that are outliers. Robust estimation is essentially a
... Show MoreThis paper considers and proposes new estimators that depend on the sample and on prior information in the case that they either are equally or are not equally important in the model. The prior information is described as linear stochastic restrictions. We study the properties and the performances of these estimators compared to other common estimators using the mean squared error as a criterion for the goodness of fit. A numerical example and a simulation study are proposed to explain the performance of the estimators.
In this paper, we made comparison among different parametric ,nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for partial linear regression model users parametric represented by ols and nonparametric methods represented by cubic smoothing spline estimator and Nadaraya-Watson estimator, we study three nonparametric regression models and samples sizes n=40,60,100,variances used σ2=0.5,1,1.5 the results for the first model show that N.W estimator for partial linear regression model(PLM) is the best followed the cubic smoothing spline estimator for (PLM),and the results of the second and the third model show that the best estimator is C.S.S.followed by N.W estimator for (PLM) ,the
... Show MoreAbstract:
Under the state scenario, fiscal policy will not be able to use the oil surpluses optimally and economically and society, as long as these surpluses are not directed by public expenditure towards new productive investments and by following the path of fiscal policy after one year 2003 and until 2013 we note that it is based on the method of spending (excessive) consumption, and did not take any action towards the budget deficit planned at the beginning of the fiscal year, and the actual surplus at the end of the fiscal year, which represents the highest expenditure in the budget, Salaries and wages of workers in various government agencies with the expansion of spending on the security side.&n
... Show MoreIraq suffers the continuing lack of water resources in generdwether it is surface or underearth water or rain. The study of rain has got the utmost importance in order to the rain direction in Iraq and in Mosul in particular and what it will be in future. It also shows the wet as well as the dry seasons and the possibility of expecting them and expecting their quantities in order to invest them and to keep this vital resource The research deals with predict the wet and dry rainy seasons in Mosul using (SPI) Standardized precipitation index extracted from conversion of Gamma distribution to standardized normal distribution , depending on data of monthly rain amounts for 1940-2013 . Results showed existence of 31 w
... Show More- المقدمهIntroduction
الخيارات أحدى الأدوات المالية المشتقة التي تشتق قيمتها من قيمة الموجود الأساسي
Underlying Asset، وقد يكون الموجود الأساسي سهما عاديا أو مؤشر أسهم أو عقد مستقبلية سلع أو عقد مستقبلية على أوراق المديونية . وبالرغم من أن الدلائل تشير إلى أن التعامل بالخيارات يعود إلى أوائل القرن السادس العشر الميلادي آلا انه ونتيجة للعديد من الابتكارات ال