يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Internal Music is considered as a basis to form music melody that sends rapture and
ecstasy within ones selves since it occurs directly on ears ( hearing) and since it tightens the
meaning to make it penetrating into Heart. It is rhythmic organization occurred inside the text
due to movements of internal sounds since rhythm heavily depends on language and
pronunciation. Repetition adds music melody to the poetic text since it increases music in
poetry. The sounds that reoccurred either be letters or words are no more than confirmation.
Thus , repetition is artistic phenomena most poets resorted to as to diverse his subjects and
metaphors he depicts in his poetry. The repetition has achieved artistic aesthetics , mean
The nature of this research is that it is a descriptive study that deals with the issue of abrogation in the Noble Qur’an by research and study, as it is one of the issues that have been and are still the subject of
اني ئاوات صالح عبد الله مواليد 1980 السليمانية حامل شهادة الدكتوراه في جامعة بغداد كلية العلوم الاسلامية قسم الشريعة تخصص الفقه مدرس في جامعة حلبجة
Many critics suggest that Beckett’s early plays are comic because they focus their analyses on the use comic elements. Waiting for Godot is one of Beckett’s early plays, and it has been heavily analyzed and read as a comic text partly because its subtitle is “a tragicomedy in two acts” and also because of the comic techniques used in the play. The present paper, however, attempts to read the play as a piece in which comedy fails to produce any effects on the characters who remain apparently very desperate and frustrated throughout the play. The characters perform different comic acts, but they do not really feel amused or entertained. The paper suggests that the acts these characters put on stage are only means to pass t
... Show MoreThe implementation of the educational system is in itself an application of the provisions of Islamic law and the basis upon which the social system rests
Student performance may influence by several factors in all his study levels such as primary school, intermediate school and even in his college; some of these factors are psychological factors, social factors, and the factors which correlate with student environment.
In this paper we study some of these factors to discover their influence by using canonical correlation analysis to analyze the data. Many conclusions are discovered to help who focuses student performance or to make it pest in future.
Investment in high education is considered to be most important factors of production which the return an individual and social than economic returns found by searching the growing problem of unemployment, especially among youth graduates, where the unemployment rate in 2010 (50%) of these high rates have led to increased migration of scientific minds graduate recently, "to search for job opportunities outside Iraq for not hiring functions and this is in vain" clear "in the human and financial resources lead to structural imbalances in the Iraqi economy. When calculating the correlation coefficient between the graduates and the unemployment rate where it reached (0.21) emerged from the results of
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The research included making a bibliography of the jurisprudential books available in the reference section of the central library at the University of Al-Mustansiriya. From this research, and I also saw that one of its objectives was to classify these books scientifically according to what was included in the Contemporary Islamic Fiqh Library of sections that were classified on its basis, according to what has settled in the custom of contemporary jurists, and according to the researcher’s view and his humble diligence, so the research was organized into an introduction and three topics. Each topic contained approximately five demands that included the sections of the contemporary jurisprudential lib
... Show MoreThis research deals with the poetic image of poets of the eighth century poetic, where they embodied the features of the religious life in which they live, and their impact on the Koranic text in the reflection of the image on their poems, where it becomes clear the ability of the poet at that stage to clarify the aesthetic components of the poetic text; Investigations, singled out the first topic: the analogy, and the second metaphorical picture, and the third: the picture.
The financial analysis of the published financial statements is the means that enables businessmen, financial institutions, financial analysts and others to conduct their studies and conclusions to obtain information that helps them in the decision-making process, including decisions related to investment. National in making the decision on the investment activity, for the period from 2012 to 2018, through the information provided by the annual financial statements, by selecting a set of indicators provided by the financial statements, namely (liquidity ratio, activity percentage, profitability ratios) to measure the extent of this ability Indicators in determining their role in making an investment decision.