يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
This study aims to expand the traditional model in calculating the break-even point to include the cost of capital invested and the funds employed in industrial companies through a change in the traditional model and the effect of adopting the advanced model of the break point on the operational leverage in planning profits in industrial companies. Where, the analysis of the break-even point and the operational leverage of the tools important by the management, which is used in the field of planning profits. A parity analysis in its sophisticated model will help in planning profits and determine the optimal size of production that maximizes profits. For its part, the operational leverage helps to make decisions regarding the expansion of
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In this research, estimated the reliability of water system network in Baghdad was done. to assess its performance during a specific period. a fault tree through static and dynamic gates was belt and these gates represent logical relationships between the main events in the network and analyzed using dynamic Bayesian networks . As it has been applied Dynamic Bayesian networks estimate reliability by translating dynamic fault tree to Dynamic Bayesian networks and reliability of the system appreciated. As was the potential for the expense of each phase of the network for each gate . Because there are two parts to the Dynamic Bayesian networks and two part of gate (AND), which includes the three basic units of the
... Show MoreThe printing designer's creative thinking is a deliberate mental process based on specific skills that stimulate the motivation of the student to learn and call for new information for the investigation and research to discover the problems and attitudes and through reformulating the experience in new patterns depending on the active imagination and the flexible scientific thinking through providing the largest number possible of various unfamiliar printing design models, and testing their suitability and then readjusting the results with the availability of suitable educational, learning and academic atmosphere.
The designer's creative thinking depends on main skills. Fluency skill is to put t
... Show MoreImpairment of financial assets defined according to IFRS 9 as the difference between all contractual cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and all the cash flows that the entity expects to receive, the entity should estimates all the cash flows through looking to the contract terms during the life time period of the assets or for shorter period if possible, the cash flow should include the amounts of selling any collateral taken or any other enhancement. On the other hand, the Central bank of Iraq guidelines regards impairment differ from the IFRS 9 that’s does not consider the collateral value on calculating the impairment that’s effects on the net profit through recognizing exaggerated loss an
... Show MoreGoal of research is to investigate the impact of the use of effective learning model in the collection of the fourth grade students/Department of physics in the material educational methods and the development of critical thinking .to teach this goal has been formulated hypothesis cefereeten zero subsidiary of the second hypothesis .To investigate the research hypothesis were selected sample of fourth-grade students of the department of physics at the univers
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to investigate potential effects of the finance industry and block-chain to general business of financing in particular, as well as its shortcomings and difficulties. To answer the research questions, the researcher used the objective narrative-analytical descriptive approach and included a qualitative analysis of Blockchain technology. The process of Blockchain technology based on their industries, the authors were selected based on their reputation in the Blockchain field. The research found that Blockchain can improve the efficiency of the banking industry's various sections. It has the ability to upgrade and transfer wages across borders, financial reporting and compliance, as well as trade finance
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Abstract
Due to the momentum of winning in the streets of the city of Baghdad as a result of the large number of checkpoints so felt researcher to conduct a field visit to find out the main reasons that led to this congestion and to find practical solutions to mitigate wastage winning the arrival time citizen to where you want the least possible time.
This research aims to overcome the difficulties experienced by citizens to reach their places of work and reduce waste at the time of service and waiting time as well as reduce the cost of waiting.
Has emerged study a set of conclusions, including the use of model queue (G / G / C) and the mome
... Show MoreThe study seeks to investigate the effect of Dunn Dunn learning style model on students’ achievement. Besides, the way of developing students’ deductive thinking by testing the null hypothesis: there is no significant difference between experimental group who takes Dunn Dunn model as style in studying geography and control group that follows a traditional method in studying geography at the level of (0,05). Additionally, there is no significant difference between experimental group who takes Dunn Dunn model as style in studying geography and control group that follows a traditional method in studying geography at the level of (0,05) on testing developing deductive thinking skills. The researcher adopted a quasi-experimental posttest
... Show MoreResearch aims to shed light on the concept of corporate failures , display and analysis the most distinctive models used to predicting corporate failure; with suggesting a model to reveal the probabilities of corporate failures which including internal and external financial and non-financial indicators, A tested is made for the research objectivity and its indicators weight and by a number of academics professionals experts, in addition to financial analysts and have concluded a set of conclusions , the most distinctive of them that failure is not considered a sudden phenomena for the company and its stakeholders , it is an Event passes through numerous stages; each have their symptoms that lead eve
... Show MoreContracting companies play a prominent role today in economic activity, due to their contribution to the implementation of major construction projects which together constitute the infrastructure of society. Most construction projects also suffer from exceeding the time and cost specified and planned for the completion of the project, and this comes for several reasons, including the work environment, country conditions, The method of managing project costs and the techniques used in its implementation Accordingly, the concepts of lean construction came, which help in addressing the causes of waste, both in time and cost, in addition to the fact that project management needs techniques that are useful in controlling the control and manag
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