ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
عرض كتاب ثلاثية النفط العراقي
The earthly music has a clear influence on the religious music in the musical culture to read and recite the Holy Quran in the city of Baghdad. This research deals with this subject in an attempt to reveal the influence of the Iraqi maqam in the recitation of Hafiz Khalil Ismail. The methodological framework of the research included the problem of research and its importance as it is useful to the Iraqi schools concerned with the recitation of the Holy Quran in Iraq. The theoretical framework included three sections that serve the literature of its subject: the first is (Iraqi maqam), the second is (the recitation of the Holy Quran) and the third is (the biography of Hafez Khalil Ismail).
The most important procedures
... Show MoreThe study of civil liability is one of the most important issues of interest in all jurisprudential, judicial and legislative direction, because of the problems and difficulties it requires. the solution requires a focused effort that sets its source, basis, scope, and control with extreme care and accuracy to achieve the right and enable the injured party to obtain fair compensation both with scope of the contractual or tort liability.
In fact, the contract of the maritime agency is what is called the comparative jurisprudence (the contract of the ship's agency) connecting between the terminals of the maritime carrier on the on hand and the maritime agent on the other hand. It is the source of responsibility of each party to the
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The public budget in Iraq depends on a number of legislations across its fourth stages, starting from preparation to implementation and control; one of these legislations is the amended law of financial management and public Debt. No. (95) In 2004. Accordingly, the public budget cycle faces various failures, some of them resulted from the shortcomings in the legislation depended that effect on the public budget in a way or another; whereas the other failure resulted from no applying the legislation that adversely effect on the public budgeting stages that call for studying them and paying the attention toward them to present the suggestions that contribute in handling and developing public budgetin
... Show MoreThe subject of disclosure, transparency and corporate governance taking globally significant attention recently, especially after the collapse of many large companies because the level of disclosure and transparency is an important measure of the effectiveness and reliability of the system of governance in the companies, the equity in the provision of correct information and clear and complete in a timely manner to all stakeholders in the life of the company with whom in relation strengthen the confidence the company's management systems and automatic guide the staff and the decision-making.
The research aims to shed light on the concept of corporate governance, and the reasons and motives of the spread
Growing interest in the subject of corporate governance after the repercussions of financial collapses of some of the leaders of American companies and European, and the consequent crisis of confidence in global financial lists of companies due to weak accounting disclosure and transparency, was quick from many countries and international organizations to adopt the concept in an attempt to improve the situation of companies and promote transparency and prevent further financial crises in the future. Based on this background, the present study aims to shed light on the concept of exercising the powers of governance that has become invitations for adoption in Iraq of great importance, given the increasing role of corporations both restrict
... Show Moreدف البحث إلى قياس الشخصية الاستغلالية لدى طلبة الجامعة على وفق متغيرات: الجنس والتخصص والمرحلة الدراسية ، تكونت عينة البحث من (200) طالباً وطالبة من طلبة جامعة بغداد، قامت الباحثة ببناء مقياس الشخصية الاستغلالية وبعد تطبيقه على العينة وتحليل البيانات بالوسائل الاحصائية المناسبة ، اظهرت نتائج البحث عن شيوع الشخصية الاستغلالية لدى الطلبة ، وان الذكور لديهم شخصية استغلالية اكثر موازنة بالاناث كما اظهرت نتائج ا
... Show MoreEstimating the semantic similarity between short texts plays an increasingly prominent role in many fields related to text mining and natural language processing applications, especially with the large increase in the volume of textual data that is produced daily. Traditional approaches for calculating the degree of similarity between two texts, based on the words they share, do not perform well with short texts because two similar texts may be written in different terms by employing synonyms. As a result, short texts should be semantically compared. In this paper, a semantic similarity measurement method between texts is presented which combines knowledge-based and corpus-based semantic information to build a semantic network that repre
... Show MoreThe present research aims to measure the wisdom among university students and the differences of the concept of wisdom according to the gender of students in college of Basic Education. The sample of the research reached (300) male and female students in the morning studies upon the four stages of the psychological guidance department, the Scale of wisdom has been designed by the researcher herself and the psychometric feature were obtained as validity and Reliability. the researcher used Chi- square to Know the differences between the number of agreed and disagreed students for the wisdom scale, as well as the researcher used person correlation coefficient to Know the reliability of the scale by re test method for wisdom scale , t- test
... Show MoreThe invention relates to a coordinate measuring machine (CMM) for determining a measuring position of a probe. The AACMM isdepends on the robotkinematics (forward and reverse) in their measurementprinciple, i.e., using the AACMM links and joint angles todetermine the exact workspace or part coordinates. Hence, themeasurements are obtained using an AACMM will be extremely accurate and precise since that ismerely dependent on rigid structural parameters and the only source of measurement error is due to human operators. In this paper, a new AACMM design was proposed. The new AACMM design addresses common issues such as solving the complex kinematics, overcoming the workspace limitation, avoiding singularity, and eliminating the effects of
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