ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
This research is a result of other studies made about the iraqi public and its relationship with different states institutions, until recently, such studies were almost non-existent. The main characteristic that distinguishes scientific research is that it involves a specific problem that needs to be studied and analysed from multiple aspects. What is meant by identifying the problem, is to limit the topic to what the researcher wants to deal with, rather than what the title suggests as topics which the researcher doesn’t want to deal with. The problem of this research is the absence of thoughtful and planned scientific programs to build a positive mental image of the institutions of the modern state in general and the House of Represe
... Show Moreقياس جودة نظام الحكم أنموذج فعالة الأداء الحكومي في العراق
The current research aims to measure the level of entrepreneurial orientation and its dimensions (creativity, independence, proactivity, risk tolerance, and achievement) in the National Security Chancellery, as its importance and role in guiding senior leaders of the chancellery to make strategic decisions with high quality in various Iraqi concerns, more specifically the security aspect. The data was collected from 94 individuals (the research sample) from the research community (120) individuals at different administrative levels and intentionally where the questionnaire was adopted as a main tool for data collection and the primary data was analyzed through descriptive and inferential statistical methods (arithmetic mean, standard dev
... Show MoreThe present research aims to measure the wisdom among university students and the differences of the concept of wisdom according to the gender of students in college of Basic Education. The sample of the research reached (300) male and female students in the morning studies upon the four stages of the psychological guidance department, the Scale of wisdom has been designed by the researcher herself and the psychometric feature were obtained as validity and Reliability. the researcher used Chi- square to Know the differences between the number of agreed and disagreed students for the wisdom scale, as well as the researcher used person correlation coefficient to Know the reliability of the scale by re test method for wisdom scale , t- test
... Show Moreيعد موضوع الاتجاهات ((Attitudes)) من الموضوعات الهامة في مجال علم النفس الاجتماعي، فالاتجاه هو المحرك للسلوك، ويرى البورت أن مفهوم الاتجاه يمثل حجر الزاوية في علم النفس الاجتماعي وتحتل دراسة الاتجاهات مكاناً بارزاً في دراسات الشخصية وديناميات الجماعة وتوجيه الرأي العام، وان العلاج النفسي ما هو إلا محاولة لتغيير اتجاهات الفرد نحو ذاته ونحو الآخرين ونحو عالمه الذي يعيش فيه.
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... Show MoreEstimating the semantic similarity between short texts plays an increasingly prominent role in many fields related to text mining and natural language processing applications, especially with the large increase in the volume of textual data that is produced daily. Traditional approaches for calculating the degree of similarity between two texts, based on the words they share, do not perform well with short texts because two similar texts may be written in different terms by employing synonyms. As a result, short texts should be semantically compared. In this paper, a semantic similarity measurement method between texts is presented which combines knowledge-based and corpus-based semantic information to build a semantic network that repre
... Show MoreThe invention relates to a coordinate measuring machine (CMM) for determining a measuring position of a probe. The AACMM isdepends on the robotkinematics (forward and reverse) in their measurementprinciple, i.e., using the AACMM links and joint angles todetermine the exact workspace or part coordinates. Hence, themeasurements are obtained using an AACMM will be extremely accurate and precise since that ismerely dependent on rigid structural parameters and the only source of measurement error is due to human operators. In this paper, a new AACMM design was proposed. The new AACMM design addresses common issues such as solving the complex kinematics, overcoming the workspace limitation, avoiding singularity, and eliminating the effects of
... Show Moreدف البحث إلى قياس الشخصية الاستغلالية لدى طلبة الجامعة على وفق متغيرات: الجنس والتخصص والمرحلة الدراسية ، تكونت عينة البحث من (200) طالباً وطالبة من طلبة جامعة بغداد، قامت الباحثة ببناء مقياس الشخصية الاستغلالية وبعد تطبيقه على العينة وتحليل البيانات بالوسائل الاحصائية المناسبة ، اظهرت نتائج البحث عن شيوع الشخصية الاستغلالية لدى الطلبة ، وان الذكور لديهم شخصية استغلالية اكثر موازنة بالاناث كما اظهرت نتائج ا
... Show MorePerformance measurement is considered one of the most important issues in
Measuring performance effectiveness in the educational institutions by maintaining balance among quantity measurable factors. They can be financial or non‐financial factors. Consequently they reflect decisive factors in the success of educational institutions and determining suitable standards and dimensions for their activities and giving it proportional importance. Adopting the idea of Balanced Score Card as one of the modern administrative techniques and methods by educational institutions assists in the development of administrative work, adjusting the performance in addition to achieving comprehensive standard and development of educational universit
... Show MoreAt the heart of every robust economy is a vital banking system. The functional banking system can effectively perform several functions such as mobilizing savings, allocating credit, monitoring managers, transforming risks, and facilitating the financial transactions. This paper aims to measure the impact of banking system development on economic growth in Iraq. Credit to private sector divided by GDP used as a proxy of banking development. Real per capita GDP used as a proxy of economic growth. By using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the paper finds that the undeveloped Iraqi banking system could not promote economic growth in the country. Therefore, a variety of policies need to be taken to spur the role of bankin
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