ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The purpose of this research is to explain the effect of the dropping of three zeroes from Iraqi dinar on the basic role of the dinar and derivative and dynamic in transaction of Iraqi economic. the importance of this research comes from the effect of this operation on the evaluation of the exchange between the individuals of Iraqi society and the other between the Iraqi individuals and the foreign whom use the Iraqi dinar as a tool for exchange also the effect of the operation on the reserves of the Iraqi dinar the results of this research are as the following:-
1-the operation of dropping of zeroes must be associated with increase of the sharing of economic sectors wi
... Show Moreالعلاقة بين السلطات الثلاث والدستور العراقي
Judo has witnessed tremendous developments since its inception until the present day. It has been distinguished by its adaptation to the various challenges it has faced throughout the ages. Judo is one of the sports that have been affected by social, technological and cultural changes. These changes reflect its transformation from the traditional Japanese martial art to a global sport practiced. All over the world, therefore, studying the historical development of judo is important, as it provides valuable insights into the development of martial arts over a century, by studying the origins, principles and techniques of judo for the period (1880 - 1980), and also enables us to gain an understanding A deeper understanding of how the art form
... Show MoreThis research aims to study the economic, social, and political reality of Iraqi women by identifying the obstacles and diagnosing their empowerment trends in various fields, assessing the extent of their participation in economic activity, and re-achieving balance between women and men by reducing the gender gap between them and reducing the percentage of female unemployment to the lowest possible level. Is achieved by enhancing confidence in Iraqi women by enacting laws and making decisions that allow them to access resources freely. The researcher used the descriptive and analytical method to deal with information and data related to the research topic over a specific period (1990-2018), using local, Arab, and international re
... Show MoreThe holy city of Najaf is a vital space that helps to bring people together within a particular context, thus strengthening intellectual communication, community participation and increasing opportunities to learn about different cultures
The research focuses on addressing one of the most important concepts of modern management that deal with the relationship between government institutions and stakeholders, Which now occupies a special significance in trends modern management, a concept of corporate governance it takes the internal mechanisms due to its key role and is important in the process of corporate governance and looking for building Effective mechanisms for this concept in light of laws and regulations that are available in the local environment and on the functioning of government institutions, Search has been applied in the Federal Board of Supreme Audit of Iraq (BSA) due to its particular importance as an institution control and as a awaits the societ
... Show MoreThe study of images in the cognitive field receives considerable attention by researchers, whether in the field of media and public relations or in other humanities. Due to the great importance in shaping trends of public opinion, especially trends that individuals and the behaviors of people, institutions or ideas are determined by forming images that they hold in their minds towards these persons or institutions. Modern enterprises have realized, whether they are governmental ministries and official departments or non-governmental organizations as civil society organizations, the importance of studying the dominant image in the minds of the masses and make decisions and draw plans to configure this image as these institutions wishes.&n
... Show MoreThe Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) is one of the most influential elements in the Iraqi national security since 2014. It has a new and effective role in the Iraqi political arena, as a result of participating in combat operations against ISIS in Nineveh Governorate, which prompted several minorities within the province to sympathize with its presence and its role in particular in Sinjar after ISIS committed the most brutal crimes against the Aizidi minority, Turkey took advantage of the security conditions that Iraq went through after the entry of ISIS into the country to expand its influence in the north, using the pretext of the PKK and the previous agreement between the two countries on border protection. Also, the continued
... Show Moreيحتل موضوع الاستهلاك اهمية كبيرة في الدراسات الاقتصادية في حالتي السلم والحرب وذلك لارتباط هذا الموضوع بالانسان والمجتمع ولكونه احد مؤشرات مستوى الرفاهية الاقتصادية والاجتماعية وتزداد اهمية ضبط حركة هذا المتغير السلوكي والكمي في زمن الحرب اكثر مما هو عليه في حالة السلم، في هذا البحث تم استخدام بيانات احصائية عن الانفاق الاستهلاكي الخاص ونصيب الفرد من الدخل القومي اضافة الى الرقم القياسي لاسعار المس
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