Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
Artificial Neural networks (ANN) are powerful and effective tools in time-series applications. The first aim of this paper is to diagnose better and more efficient ANN models (Back Propagation, Radial Basis Function Neural networks (RBF), and Recurrent neural networks) in solving the linear and nonlinear time-series behavior. The second aim is dealing with finding accurate estimators as the convergence sometimes is stack in the local minima. It is one of the problems that can bias the test of the robustness of the ANN in time series forecasting. To determine the best or the optimal ANN models, forecast Skill (SS) employed to measure the efficiency of the performance of ANN models. The mean square error and
... Show MoreThe aim of study was making comparison in some kinematics variables in (100) meter butterfly swimming to first and second ranking in championship 2003 Espana, so noticed there is no such like this study in our country in comparison study for international champions therefore not specific and scientific discovering to these advanced levels, also the researchers depend on group of kinematics variables when the comparison making and it was included (50 meter the first, 50 meter the second, the differences between the first (50) meter and the second , more over basic variables in (100) meter butterfly , after having the results and treat it statistically the researchers reaches to two conclusions which was: • Success the first rank in startin
... Show MoreThe tagged research is concerned with observation and investigating the concepts of consistency and harmony in contemporary Iraqi painting (selected models) in order to reveal the mechanisms and rules of these two concepts in the artistic field and their mechanisms of operation. How reflected tools Consistency and harmony in contemporary Iraqi painting? What is consistency and what are its mechanisms and principles? Is consistency a unit product quality? Are there similarities between consistency and harmony? What is harmony and its principles and rules? As for the second chapter, it included two topics that dealt with the first topic - consistency and harmony between concept and significance, while the second topic meant - histor
... Show MoreThe two most popular models inwell-known count regression models are Poisson and negative binomial regression models. Poisson regression is a generalized linear model form of regression analysis used to model count data and contingency tables. Poisson regression assumes the response variable Y has a Poisson distribution, and assumes the logarithm of its expected value can be modeled by a linear combination of unknown parameters. Negative binomial regression is similar to regular multiple regression except that the dependent (Y) variables an observed count that follows the negative binomial distribution. This research studies some factors affecting divorce using Poisson and negative binomial regression models. The factors are unemplo
... Show MoreRegression Discontinuity (RD) means a study that exposes a definite group to the effect of a treatment. The uniqueness of this design lies in classifying the study population into two groups based on a specific threshold limit or regression point, and this point is determined in advance according to the terms of the study and its requirements. Thus , thinking was focused on finding a solution to the issue of workers retirement and trying to propose a scenario to attract the idea of granting an end-of-service reward to fill the gap ( discontinuity point) if it had not been granted. The regression discontinuity method has been used to study and to estimate the effect of the end -service reward on the cutoff of insured workers as well as t
... Show MoreThe search included a comparison between two etchands for etch CR-39 nuclear track detector, by the calculation of bulk etch rate (Vb) which is one of the track etching parameters, by two measuring methods (thichness and change mass). The first type, is the solution prepared from solving NaOH in Ethanol (NaOH/Ethanol) by varied normalities under temperature(55˚C)and etching time (30 min) then comparated with the second type the solution prepared from solving NaOH in water (NaOH/Water) by varied normalities with (70˚C) and etching time (60 min) . All detectors were irradiated with (5.48 Mev) α-Particles from an 241Am source in during (10 min). The results that Vb would increase with the increase of
... Show MoreIn The Name of Allah Most Gracious Most Merciful
It is no secret to everyone that the endowment is an important nucleus for the prosperity of Islamic civilization, especially in the fields of education, health, economy, and defensive military actions that fall within the door of jihad, and so on. Al-Ashraf, Qom Al-Quds, Cairo, and other parts of the Islamic world. What we will see in the research.
Reconstruction in Iraq requires coherent legitimate frameworks that are able to detail obligations, rights and responsibilities of the parties participating in reconstruction projects, regardless their type or delivery system.
Conditions of Contract can be considered an important component of these frameworks. This paper investigates flexibility and appropriateness of the application of Iraqi conditions of contract in reconstruction projects. These conditions were compared to FIDIC Conditions. The objective wasn't comparing individual clauses, but rather exploring the principles and philosophy laying behind each conditions, and to what extent each conditions care about realizing equity between main contract parties. Validity of applic
The research aims to identify the extent to which Iraqi private banks practice profit management motivated by reducing the taxable base by increasing the provision for loan losses by relying on the LLP it model, which consists of a main independent variable (net profit before tax) and independent sub-variables (bank size, total debts to total equity, loans granted to total obligations) under the name of the variables governing the banking business. (Colmgrove-Smirnov) was used to test the normal distribution of data for all banks during the period 2017-2020, and then find the correlation between the main independent variable sub and the dependent variable by means of the correlation coefficient person, and then using the multiple
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This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.
The comparison was done by simulation using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood with sample size (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param
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