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A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes

Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 23 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Mitochondrial Copies Number and Some Renal Function Biomarkers in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus on Metformin

One of the most common metabolic illnesses in the world is diabetes mellitus. This metabolic disease is responsible for a large percentage of the burden of kidney damage and dysfunction. The goal of this study was to look into the renal function of diabetic patients using metformin monotherapy who came to Mosul's Al-Wafaa diabetes care and research facility. During the period 1 January 2021 to 30 April 2021, 47 patients with T2DM (age 50.48 7.74 years) were enrolled in this case-control study. These patients' results were compared to a control group of 47 seemingly healthy people (age 45.89 9.06 years). All participants' demographic and medical histories were acquired through the delivery of a questionnaire. Blood samples were collected

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Optimized Artificial Neural network models to time series

        Artificial Neural networks (ANN) are powerful and effective tools in time-series applications. The first aim of this paper is to diagnose better and more efficient ANN models (Back Propagation, Radial Basis Function Neural networks (RBF), and Recurrent neural networks) in solving the linear and nonlinear time-series behavior. The second aim is dealing with finding accurate estimators as the convergence sometimes is stack in the local minima. It is one of the problems that can bias the test of the robustness of the ANN in time series forecasting. To determine the best or the optimal ANN models, forecast Skill (SS) employed to measure the efficiency of the performance of ANN models. The mean square error and

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 26 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Prepare A Map for the Number of Hours of Electricity Generation for Different Wind Turbines in The Province of Wasit – Iraq

Wind energy is becoming one of the renewable energy that has attracted great attention all over the world. This research work aims to build a map by which the user can have a thought about the number of generation hours of electricity from wind through all the year at the location of study (Wasit-Iraq). To interact the idea, this study included using the work included using different wind turbines at different heights. The results show that Gamesa G58-850 KW wind turbine gives more generated hours at 50 meters height.

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2019
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Show fate to the people of Badr By Ibrahim ibn Hasan al-Kurani (1025-1101 AH): Study, investigate and comment

It is the grace of God and his grace that he accepts repentance for his slaves, forgives their bad deeds in return for their misfortune, or offers them a good deed, but pardons many of them for free. Therefore, it is not long for God Almighty to forgive His mercy for many of His slaves and bring them to Paradise with no punishment or punishment, even if they have committed some sins, because of the multitude of their favorable navigational disadvantages, or even without gratitude thanks to him and him. With all this, some have overlooked the old and new on these things and amazed at the hadeeth ((God may have seen the people of the full moon and said do what you want, I have forgiven you)). Therefore, the scholars tried to answer some of

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Building a model to reduce the cost of hajj in the Iraqi Authority for Hajj and Umrah

The research is summarized in the construction of a mathematical model using the most common methods in the science of Operations Research, which are the models of transportation and linear programming to find the best solution to the problem of the high cost of hajj in Iraq, and this is done by reaching the optimum number of pilgrims traveling through both land ports and the number Ideal for passengers traveling through airports by Iraqi Airways, instead of relying on the personal experience of the decision-maker in Hajj and Umrah Authority by identifying the best port for pilgrim's travel, which can tolerate right or wrong, has been based on scientific methods of Operations Research, the researcher built two mathematical models

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 20 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Socioeconomic status in relation to dental caries in Dewanyiah governorate among 12 years old school students

Background: The socioeconomic is important factor that effect in the severity and prevalence of most predominant and wide spread oral disease named dental caries, since this oral disease effects children, adolescents, adults and elderly peoples especially in developing countries as in Iraq.This survey was aimed to investigate the prevalence and severity of dental caries in relation to socioeconomic status. Materials and Methods: This oral health survey was conducted among primary and secondary school students aged 12 years old in Dewanyiah governorate in Iraq. The total sample composed of 804 (401 boys and 403 girls) selected randomly from different schools in Dewanyiah governorate. Diagnosis and recording of dental caries was assessed ac

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 07 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A comparative study to determine the nature of the eye lens protein in the two types of birds Iraqi

The study showed significant differences between the average weight lens and the average amount protein in the lens between that Kestrel Falco tinnunculus L. and the Collared Dove Streptopelia decaocto F. , also the study electrical migration of lens proteins having one bundle of crystalline –? in Kestrel compared with three bundles in Collared Dove, two bundles of crystalline – ? in both , and crystalline – ? appeared as one bundle in both birds.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Some Semi-parametric Methods in Partial Linear Single-Index Model

The research dealt with a comparative study between some semi-parametric estimation methods to the Partial linear Single Index Model using simulation. There are two approaches to model estimation two-stage procedure and MADE to estimate this model. Simulations were used to study the finite sample performance of estimating methods based on different Single Index models, error variances, and different sample sizes , and the mean average squared errors were used as a comparison criterion between the methods were used. The results showed a preference for the two-stage procedure depending on all the cases that were used

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 20 2023
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Comparison of Some Numerical Simulation Techniques for COVID-19 Model in Iraq

The aim of our study is to solve a nonlinear epidemic model, which is the COVID-19 epidemic model in Iraq, through the application of initial value problems in the current study. The model has been presented as a system of ordinary differential equations that has parameters that change with time. Two numerical simulation methods are proposed to solve this model as suitable methods for solving systems whose coefficients change over time. These methods are the Mean Monte Carlo Runge-Kutta method (MMC_RK) and the Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta method (MLH_RK). The results of numerical simulation methods are compared with the results of the numerical Runge-Kutta 4th order method (RK4) from 2021 to 2025 using the absolute error, which prove

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Clinical And Experimental Dentistry
Resistance of bonded premolars to four artificial ageing models post enamel conditioning with a novel calcium-phosphate paste

Background: This in vitro study compares a novel calcium-phosphate etchant paste to conventional 37% phosphoric acid gel for bonding metal and ceramic brackets by evaluating the shear bond strength, remnant adhesive and enamel damage following water storage, acid challenge and fatigue loading. Material and Methods: Metal and ceramic brackets were bonded to 240 extracted human premolars using two enamel conditioning protocols: conventional 37% phosphoric acid (PA) gel (control), and an acidic calcium-phosphate (CaP) paste. The CaP paste was prepared from β-tricalcium phosphate and monocalcium phosphate monohydrate powders mixed with 37% phosphoric acid solution, and the resulting phase was confirmed using FTIR. The bonded premolars were exp

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