Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
Abstract:
This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.
The comparison was done by simulation using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood with sample size (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param
... Show MoreThis research aims at answering many questions raised by the research problem concerning the view of the organizations under consideration for the concept of smart leadership and its most important dimensions, as well as the view of crisis management and its concept and most important methods through research objectives that define and clarify the smart leadership with its dimensions and methods of crisis management.
For the purpose of reaching the results of the research and testing the assumptions about the relationship between smart leadership and methods of crisis management, the researcher adopted a questionnaire, designed especially to be a criterion for the research, as the main tool for data coll
... Show MoreFor the duration of the last few many years many improvement in computer technology, software program programming and application production had been followed with the aid of diverse engineering disciplines. Those trends are on the whole focusing on synthetic intelligence strategies. Therefore, a number of definitions are supplied, which recognition at the concept of artificial intelligence from exclusive viewpoints. This paper shows current applications of artificial intelligence (AI) that facilitate cost management in civil engineering tasks. An evaluation of the artificial intelligence in its precise partial branches is supplied. These branches or strategies contributed to the creation of a sizable group of fashions s
... Show MoreThis study seeks to identify the role that the leadership trend plays in the management of health institutions in Iraq and its impact on improving the quality of the health service provided by analyzing some opinions of affiliates working in the Iraqi health sector where a survey list was used as a main tool for collecting primary data, as it was subjected to this analysis ( 60) of the medical staff, of whom (40) are doctors and (20) are affiliated with the rank of assistant physician, and (60) members of the administrative cadre have undergone their various job ranks and administrative specializations (department manager, auditor, observer, accountant, statistician, secretary). Reliance on statistical software (spss) in data ana
... Show MoreThe research aims to identify the extent to which Iraqi private banks practice profit management motivated by reducing the taxable base by increasing the provision for loan losses by relying on the LLP it model, which consists of a main independent variable (net profit before tax) and independent sub-variables (bank size, total debts to total equity, loans granted to total obligations) under the name of the variables governing the banking business. (Colmgrove-Smirnov) was used to test the normal distribution of data for all banks during the period 2017-2020, and then find the correlation between the main independent variable sub and the dependent variable by means of the correlation coefficient person, and then using the multiple
... Show MoreIn this paper was discussed the process of compounding two distributions using new compounding procedure which is connect a number of life time distributions ( continuous distribution ) where is the number of these distributions represent random variable distributed according to one of the discrete random distributions . Based on this procedure have been compounding zero – truncated poisson distribution with weibell distribution to produce new life time distribution having three parameter , Advantage of that failure rate function having many cases ( increasing , dicreasing , unimodal , bathtube) , and study the resulting distribution properties such as : expectation , variance , comulative function , reliability function and fa
... Show MoreAny city that has such a market and is organized, organized and established
Mini
And respect
Freedom of expression
Profile.
Conflict resolution and conflict resolution
Political
Which affected the growth of some markets
And religious th
The search for the return of economic and cultural activity and the emigration of some others
Cultural exchange and trade, which in turn
Al-Rifaie
We took the problem that we are experiencing
Menia, the holy city of Karbala in the market organization, has suffered from fierce attacks
Economic and heritage
e
As well as tourism and tourism, as it depends on the abundance of visitors, tourists and residents in terms of needs and motivation
Resource
he present work, among other previous studies done in our lab, aimed to highlight the histopathological effect of S. xylosus peptidoglycan in comparison to LPS of E. coli. Materials and methods: One hundred and fifty urine specimens were collected from urinary tract infection patients visiting Baghdad hospitals. The histopathological effects of S. xylosus S24 peptidoglycan was studied in the urinary tract of female mice by injecting 5 animal groups at the following concentrations: 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, and 5000 µg/mL. Another 5 groups were injected with 10, 25, 50, 75, and 100 ng/mL of E. coli (serotype 0128:B12) LPS. Results: Ten isolates were confirmed to be Staphylococcus xylosus. Histopathological study showed different pathological
... Show MoreArtificial Neural networks (ANN) are powerful and effective tools in time-series applications. The first aim of this paper is to diagnose better and more efficient ANN models (Back Propagation, Radial Basis Function Neural networks (RBF), and Recurrent neural networks) in solving the linear and nonlinear time-series behavior. The second aim is dealing with finding accurate estimators as the convergence sometimes is stack in the local minima. It is one of the problems that can bias the test of the robustness of the ANN in time series forecasting. To determine the best or the optimal ANN models, forecast Skill (SS) employed to measure the efficiency of the performance of ANN models. The mean square error and
... Show MoreThe tagged research is concerned with observation and investigating the concepts of consistency and harmony in contemporary Iraqi painting (selected models) in order to reveal the mechanisms and rules of these two concepts in the artistic field and their mechanisms of operation. How reflected tools Consistency and harmony in contemporary Iraqi painting? What is consistency and what are its mechanisms and principles? Is consistency a unit product quality? Are there similarities between consistency and harmony? What is harmony and its principles and rules? As for the second chapter, it included two topics that dealt with the first topic - consistency and harmony between concept and significance, while the second topic meant - histor
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