The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

In this paper, we establish the conditions of the occurrence of the local bifurcations, such as saddle node, transcritical and pitchfork, of all equilibrium points of an eco-epidemiological model consisting of a prey-predator model with SI (susceptible-infected) epidemic diseases in prey population only and a refuge-stage structure in the predators. It is observed that there is a transcritical bifurcation near the axial and free predator equilibrium points, near disease-free equilibrium point is a saddle-node bifurcation and near positive (coexistence) equilibrium point is a saddle-node bifurcation, a transcritical bifurcation and a pitchfork bifurcation. Further investigations for Hopf bifurcation near coexistence equilibrium point

Abstract 

     The aim of this work is to create a power control system for wind turbines based on fuzzy logic. Three power control loop was considered including: changing the pitch angle of  the blade, changing the length of the blade and turning the nacelle. The stochastic law was given for changes and instant inaccurate assessment of wind conditions changes. Two different algorithms were used for fuzzy inference in the control loop, the Mamdani and Larsen algorithms. These two different algorithms are materialized and developed in this study in Matlab-Fuzzy logic toolbox which has been practically implemented using necessary intelligent control system in electrical engineerin

The mathematical construction of an ecological model with a prey-predator relationship was done. It presumed that the prey consisted of a stage structure of juveniles and adults. While the adult prey species had the power to fight off the predator, the predator, and juvenile prey worked together to hunt them. Additionally, the effect of the harvest was considered on the prey. All the solution’s properties were discussed. All potential equilibrium points' local stability was tested. The prerequisites for persistence were established. Global stability was investigated using Lyapunov methods. It was found that the system underwent a saddle-node bifurcation near the coexistence equilibrium point while exhibiting a transcritical bifurcation

Compaction curves are widely used in civil engineering especially for road constructions, embankments, etc. Obtaining the precise amount of Optimum Moisture Content (OMC) that gives the Maximum Dry Unit weight g_dmax. is very important, where the desired soil strength can be achieved in addition to economic aspects.

In this paper, three peak functions were used to obtain the OMC and g_dmax. through curve fitting for the values obtained from Standard Proctor Test. Another surface fitting was also used to model the Ohio’s compaction curves that represent the very large variation of compacted soil types.

The results showed very good correlation between the values obtained from some publ

Charge multipole Coulomb scattering form factors in ⁴⁸Ca nucleus have been reproduced utilizing the theory of nuclear shell. The efficient two-body nuclear potential fpbm is considered to construct the-spin orbit term LS vectors with Harmonic Oscillator HO potential as a wave function of single particle in Fp shell. Discarded spaces ( core + higher configuration) are taken into account through the Core polarization effect by model space with accurate two-body potential of Gogny to  interact the LS operating particles with the discarded space pair ( particle-hole) with energy of excitation equal to 2ћω. Gogny interaction has been selected as it had succeeded in nuclear shell theory. The computed results were compared with th

A summary of zooplankton research done in Peruvian marine waters is presented. We first provide a brief overview of the evolution of zooplankton studies off Peru before reviewing zooplankton biodiversity, regional distribution, seasonal and interannual fluctuation, trophodynamics, secondary production, and modeling are some of these topics. We evaluate research on various meroplankton, macroplankton, mesoplankton, and microplankton groups and provide a list of species from both published and unpublished sources. Three regional zooplankton groups have been identified: A shelf group on the continental shelf dominated by Acartia tonsa and Centropages brachiatus; A slope group on the continental shelf with siphonophores, bivalves, foramin