The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices
Wellbore instability problems cause nonproductive time, especially during drilling operations in the shale formations. These problems include stuck pipe, caving, lost circulation, and the tight hole, requiring more time to treat and therefore additional costs. The extensive hole collapse problem is considered one of the main challenges experienced when drilling in the Zubair shale formation. In turn, it is caused by nonproductive time and increasing well drilling expenditure. In this study, geomechanical modeling was used to determine a suitable mud weight window to overpass these problems and improve drilling performance for well development. Three failure criteria, including Mohr–Coulomb, modifie
The research problem lies in identifying the challenges facing spreading the culture of peace in Iraq, and the most important factors of its instability from the point of view of leaders and intellectual elites.The research derives its importance from the fact that the peace imposed by justice leads to a stable Iraq and a prosperous future.
The study aims to identify the most prominent challenges and obstacles created by wars and faced the process of spreading the culture of peace and instability in Iraq, and to shed light on the reasons leading to the employment of the capabilities of community leaders in spreading the culture of peace.The objective of the current research is to identify the challenges of spreading the culture o
... Show MoreThe family Ormyridae has been very much neglected by workers and only two species has been recorded so far from Iraq. The present study, based mainly on my collection, deals with five species, of which one is new to science. The new species is described together with notes on locality data, host records, distribution and taxonomical remarks for all the species.
The research tacklets the role of risks arising from the excessive use of derivative contracts for trading in financial crises, including the recent global financial crisis in (2008) which is known the mortgage crisis.
In order to prove the hypothesis of the research, the risk index of derivative contracts has been chosed as expressed in the measure of (value at risk) to be the main field for testing the hypothesis of research. The duration of the contract has been also chased for (15) years between the years (2001- 2015), the period preceding the global financial crisis, while the second represents the period of time that followed. The research reached a number of conclusions, bu
... Show MoreComputer modeling has been used to investing the Coulomb coupling parameter ?. The effects of the structure parameter K, grain charge Z, plasma density N, temperature dust grain Td, on the Coulomb coupling parameter had been studied. It was seen that the ? was increasing with increasing Z and N, and decrease with increasing K and T. Also the critical value of ? that the phase transfer of the plasma state from liquid to solid was studied.
To the Banks capital several uses, including the protection of deposits and this was approved by the Basel Committee, And Finance long-term investments which intended to investment in fixed assets that are essential to the continuation of banking activity, Fixed assets not financed from the funds of the deposit, but the owner equity do this jop. the current research tries to prove the effect of banks capital on fixed assets for a sample of iraqi private banks (bank of baghdad and Iraqi middle east Investment bank), for the period from 2011 until 2014. The research concluded that the capital of bank of baghdad affect on his total fixed assets by (84%), and the capital of Iraqi middle east Investment bank affect on his total fixed assets b
... Show MoreThe Islamic Bank of Al-Nahrain offers a formula for financing the purchase of real estate through a deferred sale contract, through Murabaha to the order to buy, and the payment of the price is in the form of instalments that include (the purchase price of the profit and the mutual agreement on the real estate). This research aims to show the reflection of real estate murabaha on the bank's investments, by measuring the effect of real estate murabaha on the profits achieved by the Islamic Bank of Al-Nahrain Bank. The growth of 'real estate murabaha' realized from the 'amounts granted by Bank X, in addition to analyzing the financial ratios of profitability indicators, including (return on deposits Y2) and for the years (2016 - 20
... Show MoreThe banking sector of all kinds is the backbone of the economy in all countries, as it is the main financier of most economic projects in order to achieve economic development and achieve stability, which contributes to providing the necessary resources in return for obtaining a profit margin in exchange for giving up his money and bearing credit risks. Among the aforementioned banking sectors are: Islamic banks that invest their capital in several forms in order to obtain profits that enable them to continue and grow, and the most important of these formulas is the Murabaha formula, which is summarized by the bank selling a commodity after owning it and then selling it to the applicant for this commodity based on a prior request
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