The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices
Abstract
The aim of the research is to demonstrate the impact of long-term investment on profitability, and in order to achieve this goal, long-term investment was chosen, represented by (the ratio of long-term investments to total investments, the ratio of long-term investment to the total (deposits) as independent variables, and studying its impact on the dependent variable, which is profitability as measured by the rate of return on investments, the rate of return on equity. In order to reach the results, the inductive approach and the analytical descriptive approach were used, and the research found a significant impac
... Show MoreThis research includes a detailed morphological description of the Pollenia mesopotamica sp. nov. in Iraq. Locality, host plant and data of collection were given.
The aim of the current research is to verify the effect of the cognitive modeling strategy on the achievement of the chemistry course for the students of the first intermediate grade. To achieve the objective of the research, the null hypothesis was formulated via cognitive modeling strategy. The results showed that the experimental group's students performed better than the students in the control group. In the light of the results, the researchers concluded: The impact of the cognitive modeling strategy in the achievement of students of first intermediate grade in chemistry.
Quantum dots (QDs) of zinc sulfide (ZnS) was prepared by chemical reaction with different potential of hydrogen (pH) and used to fabricate organic quantum dot hybrid junction device. The optical properties of QDs were characterized by ultraviolet-visible (UV-Vis.) and photoluminescence (PL) spectrometer. The results show that the prepared QDs were nanocrystalline with defects formation. The energy gap (Eg)calculated from PL were 3.64, 3.53 and 3.35 eV for pH=8, 10 and 12 respectively. This decreasing of energy gaps is results of the effect the pH solution increases, which in turn leads to the shifted of the PL spectrum toward red shifted, which makes the energy bands at surface states are shallow ban
... Show MoreThe objective of the research is to measure the impact of social responsibility on the financial performance of the National Bank of Iraq for the period from 2014 to 2016 (3 years) through discussing and analyzing the level of practice of the Bank of Baghdad for social responsibility and the impact on their financial performance during the period. To measure the independent variable (CSR), the researcher used the CSR Disclosure Index and relied on the ROA as an indicator to measure the dependent variable (financial performance). The results of the research showed the main hypothesis of the research, which states that the social responsibility of the banks has no significant impact on the financial performance. In relation to the disclosu
... Show MoreThe electrocardiogram (ECG) is the recording of the electrical potential of the heart versus time. The analysis of ECG signals has been widely used in cardiac pathology to detect heart disease. The ECGs are non-stationary signals which are often contaminated by different types of noises from different sources. In this study, simulated noise models were proposed for the power-line interference (PLI), electromyogram (EMG) noise, base line wander (BW), white Gaussian noise (WGN) and composite noise. For suppressing noises and extracting the efficient morphology of an ECG signal, various processing techniques have been recently proposed. In this paper, wavelet transform (WT) is performed for noisy ECG signals. The graphical user interface (GUI)
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