The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Hydrocarbon production might cause changes in dynamic reservoir properties. Thus the consideration of the mechanical stability of a formation under different conditions of drilling or production is a very important issue, and basic mechanical properties of the formation should be determined. There is considerable evidence, gathered from laboratory measurements in the field of Rock Mechanics, showing a good correlation between intrinsic rock strength and the dynamic elastic constant determined from sonic-velocity and density measurements. The values of the mechanical properties determined from log data, such as the dynamic elastic constants derived from the measurement of the elastic wave velocities in the material, should be more accurate t
... Show MoreHydrocarbon production might cause changes in dynamic reservoir properties. Thus the consideration of the mechanical stability of a formation under different conditions of drilling or production is a very important issue, and basic mechanical properties of the formation should be determined.
There is considerable evidence, gathered from laboratory measurements in the field of Rock Mechanics, showing a good correlation between intrinsic rock strength and the dynamic elastic constant determined from sonic-velocity and density measurements.
The values of the mechanical properties determined from log data, such as the dynamic elastic constants derived from the measurement of the elastic wave velocities in the material, should be more a
This research includes structure interpretation of the Yamama Formation (Lower Cretaceous) and the Naokelekan Formation (Jurassic) using 2D seismic reflection data of the Tuba oil field region, Basrah, southern Iraq. The two reflectors (Yamama and Naokelekan) were defined and picked as peak and tough depending on the 2D seismic reflection interpretation process, based on the synthetic seismogram and well log data. In order to obtain structural settings, these horizons were followed over all the regions. Two-way travel-time maps, depth maps, and velocity maps have been produced for top Yamama and top Naokelekan formations. The study concluded that certain longitudinal enclosures reflect anticlines in the east and west of the study ar
... Show MoreZubair Formation is the most productive reservoir in southern Iraq, which is comprised of sandstones, interbedded with shale sequences and sometimes carbonate rock. It is an important formation in the lower Cretaceous cycle in Iraq. Rumaila oil field is the largest oil field in Iraq and the 6th in the world. Two wells were studied for three depths, one in the southern Rumaila and the other in the north. The study focused on light and heavy minerals in sand fractions and their relationship with hydrocarbon assemblages. For the survey to be complete, the sedimentological study of the cores was also conducted. This research aims to determine the effect of the amount of heavy and light minerals on the generation and production of
... Show MoreThe drought is a globally phenomenon, its influence will convert large parts of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region into hot dry deserts under the expectations of the climate change scenarios. Climate limitations, soil erosion affected by weather properties such as unequally and limited rainfall; temperature changing and wind, unsuitable irrigation techniques, excessive grazing, agricultural expansion against to the natural habitats, extensively clearance of natural vegetation, and soil salinity had all contributed to land degradation, reduced water supplies, and limited agricultural production in Iraq. It is estimated that nearly 54.3 % of Iraq's area is threatened by desertification problems.
In this research, for Iraq the Cl
Roaming data is an important source of information about the political and social activities of a country. And this is true for Iraq situation after 2003 when the mobile companies started their business. In this paper, data of subscribers roamed onto foreign networks (inbound roamers) is collected; it consists of the name of the Radio Control Point, the counter dealing with this type of information, Mobile Network Code/Mobile Country Code tupel. This data is processed. Results obtained out of this process show the classification of the inbound roamers (according to their countries) during the occupation period (2008-2009). These results reflect the political situation of Iraq at that time. Information resulted from this proc
... Show MoreIn this paper the wind data that is measured for 12 months (January to December 2011) at Al-Hay district of Wasit province, southern IRAQ country has been analyzed statistically. The wind speed at heights of 10 m above ground level was measured for every 10 minutes interval. The statistical analysis of wind data was performed using WAsP software which is based on Weibull distributions. The Weibull shape and scale parameters is obtained and used in this paper statistics. The achieved results demonstrated that the study area has Annual Mean Energy Production (AMEP) about 219.002 MWh. The computations have been performed on 70m hub‟s height of the turbine and on Earth surface roughness length (0.0, 0.03, 0.1, 0.4, 1.5) m respectively.
Theresearch took the spatial autoregressive model: SAR and spatial error model: SEM in an attempt to provide a practical evident that proves the importance of spatial analysis, with a particular focus on the importance of using regression models spatial andthat includes all of them spatial dependence, which we can test its presence or not by using Moran test. While ignoring this dependency may lead to the loss of important information about the phenomenon under research is reflected in the end on the strength of the statistical estimation power, as these models are the link between the usual regression models with time-series models. Spatial analysis had
... Show MoreThe research took the spatial autoregressive model: SAR and spatial error model: SEM in an attempt to provide practical evidence that proves the importance of spatial analysis, with a particular focus on the importance of using regression models spatial and that includes all of the spatial dependence, which we can test its presence or not by using Moran test. While ignoring this dependency may lead to the loss of important information about the phenomenon under research is reflected in the end on the strength of the statistical estimation power, as these models are the link between the usual regression models with time-series models. The spatial analysis had been applied to Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHS
... Show MoreSetting-up a 3D geological model both from field and subsurface data is a typical task in geological studies involving natural resource evaluation and hazard assessment. In this study a 3D geological model for Mishrif Formation in Garraf oil field has been set-up using Petrel software. Mishrif Formation represents the most important reservoir in Garraf oil field. Four vertical oil wells (GA-4, GA-A1P, GA-3 and GA-5) and one directional well (GA-B8P) were selected in Garraf Oil Field in order to set-up structural and petrophysical (porosity and water saturation) models represented by a 3D static geological model in three dimensions. Structural model shows that Garraf oil field represents a domal structure that shows continuous growth as i
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