The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Abstract
That Iraq's dependence on the revenues of the oil product in financing its development programs and growth rates , Making the economy affected by external forces represented by fluctuations in crude oil prices in the global market, Which is directly reflected on the performance and efficiency of the Iraqi economy.
The study adopted its objectives to analyze the time series for the period (1988 - 2015) through the use of standard and statistical methods, Four standard models were estimated to reach those targets, Where the results of the stability test showed instability of most variables at their original level, But to achieve stability when taking the first differences, While the result
... Show MoreIn this study predication of crop coefficient (Kc) values through growing season for cucumber plant was conducted. A field experiment was carried out at AL Yusufiyah Township, in the Governorate of Baghdad, (latitude: 33°09' N, longitude: 44°24' E, and altitude: 34 m) in medium loam soil. The plant was cultivated inside the greenhouse under subsurface trickle irrigation system with soil water retention technology (SWRT) during the growing season 2017. Crop coefficient values were guessed from the direct method of measurements of daily crop evapotranspiration, while reference evapotranspiration was obtained from Agricultural Meteorology Project - Station of Baghdad - Abu-Ghraib. The obtained results were showed that crop coeffici
... Show MoreForecasting has become common process and reality. Since man has found multiple forms of simple predictive predictions, fruitful predictive results have emerged, such as weather forecasting or trading on stock exchange. The research was organized by defining the problem, which was manifested by the question:
(What is the prediction in global logo design methods?)
The aim of the research: (revealing design prediction in the methods of global logos). The theoretical framework was: (the concept of prediction in the design of global logos), (methods of global logos), (types of prediction) and then were attached to indicators, results and conclusions, including:
- The color value of international logos came with human needs: a
Objective: The evaluation of serum osteocalcin (OSN) for Iraqi infertile patients to see the effect of osteocalcin insufficiency, which may lead to a decreased level of testosterone production in males that may cause infertility. Methods: Forty two newly diagnosed infertile males age range (24–47) years and thirty two apparently healthy males as controls age range (25–58) years. Serum levels of testosterone (TEST), stimulating follicle hormone (FSH) and luteinizing hormone (LH), prolactin (PROL), osteocalcin OSN, and fasting blood sugar (FBS) were performed in both patients and controls. Estimation of serum OSN by Immulite1000 auto-analyzer, TEST, FSH, LH, PROL, and FBS by Immulite2000 auto-analyzer. Results: Infertile patients
... Show MoreThe oil sector in Iraq suffered from several difficulties led to the decline and reduction of oil production and the deterioration of refineries and transport pipeline status in addition to the weakness of the technology side and the prevalence of financial and administrative corruption besides the high costs of rehabilitation of the oil sector and also administrative and institutional problems still ongoing.
In spite of Iraq's possession of vast oil wealth allows him to play an important role in the international energy market، he is still under the level. The production of oil doesn'<
... Show MoreThe study relied on data about the health sector in Iraq in 2006 in cooperation with the Ministry of Health and the Central Bureau of Statistics and Information Technology in 2007 Included the estimates of the population distribution of the Baghdad province and the country depending on the population distribution for 1997,evaluate the health sector which included health institutions, and health staff, and other health services. The research Aimis; Measurement an amount and size of the growth of health services (increase and decrease) and the compare of verified in Iraq and Baghdad, and evaluate the effectiveness of the distribution of supplies and health services (physical and human) of the size of the population distribution and
... Show MoreThis research a study model of linear regression problem of autocorrelation of random error is spread when a normal distribution as used in linear regression analysis for relationship between variables and through this relationship can predict the value of a variable with the values of other variables, and was comparing methods (method of least squares, method of the average un-weighted, Thiel method and Laplace method) using the mean square error (MSE) boxes and simulation and the study included fore sizes of samples (15, 30, 60, 100). The results showed that the least-squares method is best, applying the fore methods of buckwheat production data and the cultivated area of the provinces of Iraq for years (2010), (2011), (2012),
... Show MoreDesert truffle is considered as a type of Syrian wild fungi that spreads heavily, and it occupies important rank in folk medicine, where its aqueous extract is used for the treatment of some eye and skin illnesses, and people prefer the use of black truffle. This work interested in studying of the most available species; Terfezia claveryi (black) and Tirmania pinoyi (white). The extracts of the two species of truffle were prepared by maceration with water, methanol, and ethanol 70%. Their total phenolic contents (TPC) and total flavonoid contents (TFC) were analyzed using Folin-ciocalteu and Aluminum chloride methods respectively, and their antioxidant activities was tested using 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) and
... Show MoreA modified water injection technique has organized by this study to improve oil recovery of the Mishrif reservoirs using polymerized alkaline surfactant water (PAS-Water) injection. It is planned to modify the existing water injection technology, first to control and balance the hazardous troublemaker reservoir facies of fifty-micron pore sizes with over 500 millidarcies permeability, along with the non-troublemaker types of less than twenty micron pore sizes with 45 to 100 millidarcies permeability. Second to control Mishrif reservoirs rock-wettability. Special core analysis under reservoir conditions of 2250 psi and 90 °C has carried out on tens of standard core plugs with heterogeneous buildup, using the proposed renewal water f
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