The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
This study includes a palynological and organic geochemical evaluation of Nahr Umr, Zubair, and Yamama Formations in the Subba field, Southern Iraq, represented by three wells (Su-14, Su-9 and Su-8). The determination of quantity organic matter showed that the rocks of Nahr Umr Formation had a total organic carbon of 4.76%, indicating very good production of hydrocarbons where type (II) kerogen was dominant, but the rocks were thermally immature. Zubair Formation had a total organic carbon of 1.91% to 2.26%, indicating good to very good production of hydrocarbons where kerogen of types (I) and (II/III) were dominant, with low thermal maturity. Yamama Formation showed a total organic carbon of 1.68%, revealing good production of hydrocarb
... Show MoreIn this research, the one of the most important model and widely used in many and applications is linear mixed model, which widely used to analysis the longitudinal data that characterized by the repeated measures form .where estimating linear mixed model by using two methods (parametric and nonparametric) and used to estimate the conditional mean and marginal mean in linear mixed model ,A comparison between number of models is made to get the best model that will represent the mean wind speed in Iraq.The application is concerned with 8 meteorological stations in Iraq that we selected randomly and then we take a monthly data about wind speed over ten years Then average it over each month in corresponding year, so we g
... Show MoreThis paper considers the maximum number of weekly cases and deaths caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq from its outbreak in February 2020 until the first of July 2022. Some probability distributions were fitted to the data. Maximum likelihood estimates were obtained and the goodness of fit tests were performed. Results revealed that the maximum weekly cases were best fitted by the Dagum distribution, which was accepted by three goodness of fit tests. The generalized Pareto distribution best fitted the maximum weekly deaths, which was also accepted by the goodness of fit tests. The statistical analysis was carried out using the Easy-Fit software and Microsoft Excel 2019.
Abstract. Full-waveform airborne laser scanning data has shown its potential to enhance available segmentation and classification approaches through the additional information it can provide. However, this additional information is unable to directly provide a valid physical representation of surface features due to many variables affecting the backscattered energy during travel between the sensor and the target. Effectively, this delivers a mis-match between signals from overlapping flightlines. Therefore direct use of this information is not recommended without the adoption of a comprehensive radiometric calibration strategy that accounts for all these effects. This paper presents a practical and reliable radiometric calibration r
... Show MoreThis paper addresses the nature of Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI), considered as one of the most important concepts to ensure effective functioning in a modern society. It comprises a set of continually developing methods and procedures providing the geospatial base supporting a country’s governmental, environmental, economic, and social activities. In general, the SDI framework consists of the integration of various elements including standards, policies, networks, data, and end users and application areas. The transformation of previously paper-based map data into a digital format, the emergence of GIS, and the Internet and a host of online applications (e.g., environmental impact analysis, navigation, applications of VGI dat
... Show MoreThe current study includes preparing a geometric proposal of the main parameters that must be worked within a seismic reflection survey to prepare a three-dimensional subsurface image. This image represents the Siba oil field located in Basra, southern Iraq. The results were based on two options for selecting these approved elements to create a three-dimensional image of the Mishrif, Zubair and Yamama formations as well as the Jurassic and Permian Khuff and the pre-Khuff reservoir area. The first option is represented in the geometry in option -1 is 12 lines, 6 shots, and 216 chs. The receiver density is 66.67 receivers / km2, so the shot density is the same. Total shots are 21000, which is the same number of receiv
... Show MoreAbstract
That Iraq's dependence on the revenues of the oil product in financing its development programs and growth rates , Making the economy affected by external forces represented by fluctuations in crude oil prices in the global market, Which is directly reflected on the performance and efficiency of the Iraqi economy.
The study adopted its objectives to analyze the time series for the period (1988 - 2015) through the use of standard and statistical methods, Four standard models were estimated to reach those targets, Where the results of the stability test showed instability of most variables at their original level, But to achieve stability when taking the first differences, While the result
... Show MoreThis paper investigates the modal analysis of vibration of Euler-Bernoulli beam subjected to concentrated load. The governing partial differential equation was analysed to determine the behaviour of the system under consideration. The series solution and numerical methods were used to solve the governing partial differential equation. The results revealed that the amplitude increases as the length of the beam increases. It was also found that the response amplitude increases as the foundation increases at fixed length of the beam.