The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
A geological model is a spatial representation of the distribution of sediments and rocks in the subsurface. Where this study on Halfaya oil field; it is located in Missan governorate, 35 km southeast of the city of Amara. It is one of the main fields in Iraq because it is production high oil. This model contains the structure, and petrophysical properties (porosity, water saturation) in three directions. To build 3D geological models of petroleum reservoirs. Khasib, Tanuma, and Sa’di formations in Halfaya oil field have been divided into many layers depending on petrophysical properties and facies.
This research a study model of linear regression problem of autocorrelation of random error is spread when a normal distribution as used in linear regression analysis for relationship between variables and through this relationship can predict the value of a variable with the values of other variables, and was comparing methods (method of least squares, method of the average un-weighted, Thiel method and Laplace method) using the mean square error (MSE) boxes and simulation and the study included fore sizes of samples (15, 30, 60, 100). The results showed that the least-squares method is best, applying the fore methods of buckwheat production data and the cultivated area of the provinces of Iraq for years (2010), (2011), (2012),
... Show MoreThe Hartha Formation (age Late Campanian – Early Maastrichtian) is considered an important oil reservoir in Iraq. The petrography and the diagenetic features were determined based on the analyses of 430 thin sections from selected wells within Balad and East Baghdad oil fields, Ba-2, Ba-3, EB-53, Eb-56 and EB-102.
The most important and common diagenesis processes that affect Hartha Formation include Cementation, Neomorphsim, Micrtitization, Dolomitization, Compaction, Dissolution, and Authigenic minerals. This diagenesis deformation on Hartha Formation has overall accentuated the reservoir quality heterogeneity.
The reservoir quality evolution is affected by destruction by grain compaction mechanical and chemica
... Show MoreCarbonate reservoirs are an essential source of hydrocarbons worldwide, and their petrophysical properties play a crucial role in hydrocarbon production. Carbonate reservoirs' most critical petrophysical properties are porosity, permeability, and water saturation. A tight reservoir refers to a reservoir with low porosity and permeability, which means it is difficult for fluids to move from one side to another. This study's primary goal is to evaluate reservoir properties and lithological identification of the SADI Formation in the Halfaya oil field. It is considered one of Iraq's most significant oilfields, 35 km south of Amarah. The Sadi formation consists of four units: A, B1, B2, and B3. Sadi A was excluded as it was not filled with h
... Show MoreIn real situations all observations and measurements are not exact numbers but more or less non-exact, also called fuzzy. So, in this paper, we use approximate non-Bayesian computational methods to estimate inverse Weibull parameters and reliability function with fuzzy data. The maximum likelihood and moment estimations are obtained as non-Bayesian estimation. The maximum likelihood estimators have been derived numerically based on two iterative techniques namely “Newton-Raphson†and the “Expectation-Maximization†techniques. In addition, we provide compared numerically through Monte-Carlo simulation study to obtained estimates of the parameters and reliability function i
... Show MoreThe oil sector in Iraq suffered from several difficulties led to the decline and reduction of oil production and the deterioration of refineries and transport pipeline status in addition to the weakness of the technology side and the prevalence of financial and administrative corruption besides the high costs of rehabilitation of the oil sector and also administrative and institutional problems still ongoing.
In spite of Iraq's possession of vast oil wealth allows him to play an important role in the international energy market، he is still under the level. The production of oil doesn'<
... Show MorePetrel is regards one of the most important software to delineate subsurface Petrophysical properties to the reservoir. In this study, 3D Integrated geological models has been built by using Petrel software. The process includes integrated Petrophysical properties and environmental approaches.
Noor oil field within Mishrif Formation in terms of structural geology represents asymmetrical anticlinal fold with direction NW-SE. Porosity and water saturation model have been built. The reservoir was divided into several reservoirs and Nonreservoir units depends on the Petrophysical properties for each zone. In addition,
intact model for the reservoir in terms of porosity and water saturation have been b
Radiological assessment due to existing of natural occurring radioactive materials
(NORM) in South Rumaila oil field was achieved in this study. Different samples
including soil, sludge, scale, oil, and water were collected from different stages of
oil and gas production in Markazia Degassing Station (SDS) in South Rumaila oil
field. Radioactivity of Ra-226, Th-232 and K-40 were measured using gamma
spectrometry system based on HPGe detector with efficiency of 30%. The results
show that some locations within SDS are contaminated with NORM. The activity of
Ra-226, Th-232 and K-40 range between 18.4 to 312.8, 9.4 to 140.8 and 66.4 to
800.8 (Bq/kg) respectively. The places to be more contaminated among the other
p