The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Mishrif Formation is the main reservoir in oil-fields (North Rumaila, South Rumaila, Majnoon, Zubair and West Qurna) which located at Basrah southern Iraq. The Inductively coupled plasma-Mass spectrometer (ICP-MS) was used for the water chemistry analysis and Scanning Electron Microprobe (SEM) for the purpose of mineralogy diagnosis. A weak acidic water of salinity six-time greater than seawater plays a role in generating the formation pressure and controlling the fluid flow. The potentiometric subsurface maps were modeled and the direction of super-pressure sites that are of a great importance in the oil exploration were marked to pay attention during future drilling.
The investment government expenditure is considered the fundamental of enhancing the economic activity as it has become a mean for achieving capital accumulation in all economic sectors, The Iraqi economy is characterized of being yield unilateral depending petroleum revenues as an essential resource of financing government expenditure , as the contribution of petroleum sector in GDP is large in proportions to other economic sectors contribution.
The relationship between investing government expenditure, and non-oil GDP is about to be not existent during the
... Show MoreStatistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)
Heavy oil is classified as unconventional oil resource because of its difficulty to recover in its natural state, difficulties in transport and difficulties in marketing it. Upgrading solution to the heavy oil has positive impact technically and economically specially when it will be a competitive with conventional oils from the marketing prospective. Developing Qaiyarah heavy oil field was neglected in the last five decades, the main reason was due to the low quality of the crude oil resulted in the high viscosity and density of the crude oil in the field which was and still a major challenge putting them on the major stream line of production in Iraq. The low quality of the crude properties led to lower oil prices in the global markets
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