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A noval SVR estimation of figarch modal and forecasting for white oil data in Iraq

The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 30 2018
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Application Artificial Forecasting Techniques in Cost Management (review)

For the duration of the last few many years many improvement in computer technology, software program programming and application production had been followed with the aid of diverse engineering disciplines. Those trends are on the whole focusing on synthetic intelligence strategies. Therefore, a number of definitions are supplied, which recognition at the concept of artificial intelligence from exclusive viewpoints. This paper shows current applications of artificial intelligence (AI) that facilitate cost management in civil engineering tasks. An evaluation of the artificial intelligence in its precise partial branches is supplied. These branches or strategies contributed to the creation of a sizable group of fashions s

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A Comparison of Mishrif Formation Characteristics in Kumait and Dujaila Oil Fields, Southern Iraq, Using Seismic Inversion Method and Petrophysical Properties Analysis

A comparison was conducted between two wells, Kt-1and Kt-2, in Kumait and two wells, Du-1and Du-2, in Dujaila oil fields that belong to Mishrif formation, southern Iraq.  Seismic inversion method was employed to detect oil and water reservoirs. The comparison included the behavior of acoustic impedance (AI) of fluids and the lithology with related petrophysical properties. The values of water saturation, Shale volume (Vsh), and effective porosity were compared between the AI,  two fluid reservoirs. It was found that the AI value for the oil reservoir unit is relatively low to medium, whereas it was relatively medium for the water reservoir. Effective porosity value showed, in general, an increase in the oil reservoir and

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 31 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Utilization of Remote Sensing Imagery and Inverse Distance Weighted Scheme to Simulate the White Oil Effects on Soil Geotechnical Properties

     This research aims to utilize a complementarity of field excavations and laboratory works with spatial analyses techniques for a highly accurate modeling of soil geotechniques properties (i.e. having lower root mean square error value for the spatial interpolation). This was conducted, for a specified area of interest, firstly by adopting spatially sufficient and  well distributed samples (cores). Then, in the second step, a simulation is performed for the variations in properties when soil is contaminated with commonly used industrial material, which is white oil in our case. Cohesive (disturbed and undisturbed) soil samples were obtained from three various locations inside Baghdad University campus in AL-J

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 22 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Use of Gis for Creating a Project Management Data Base in Baghdad Al-Rissfa

The main objective of resources management is to supply and support the site operation with necessary resources in a way to achieve the required timing in handing over the work as well as to achieve the cost-realism within the budget estimated. The research aims to know the advantage of using GIS in management of resources as one of the new tools that keep pace with the evolution in various countries around the world also collect the vast amount of spatial data resources in one environment easily to handled and accessed quickly and this help to make the right decision regarding management of resources in various construction projects. The process of using GIS in the management and identification of resources is of extreme importance in t

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Financial contribution of taxes on Foreign oil companies in support of the state budget: The case of a foreign oil company in the Iraq Study

Imposed on foreign oil companies from important sources in the financing of the general budget in most countries of the world income tax is considered as well as be used to achieve political, economic and social goals, and has developed the concept of the tax until it became play an important role in influencing the economic conditions of a country, and the aim of this research is to statement imposed on foreign oil companies operating in Iraq in the financing of the state budget income tax contribution, as well as clarify the contracts type contracts with these companies, which is in favor of Iraq, together with the Income Tax Law No. (19) for the year / 2010, and instructed No. (5) for the year / 2011, which organized the tax process s

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 25 2021
Journal Name
Natural Resources Research
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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2019
Journal Name
2019 International Conference On Automation, Computational And Technology Management (icactm)
Multi-Resolution Hierarchical Structure for Efficient Data Aggregation and Mining of Big Data

Big data analysis is essential for modern applications in areas such as healthcare, assistive technology, intelligent transportation, environment and climate monitoring. Traditional algorithms in data mining and machine learning do not scale well with data size. Mining and learning from big data need time and memory efficient techniques, albeit the cost of possible loss in accuracy. We have developed a data aggregation structure to summarize data with large number of instances and data generated from multiple data sources. Data are aggregated at multiple resolutions and resolution provides a trade-off between efficiency and accuracy. The structure is built once, updated incrementally, and serves as a common data input for multiple mining an

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 28 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Development of 3D Geological Model and Analysis of the Uncertainty in a Tight Oil Reservoir in the Halfaya Oil Field

A geological model was built for the Sadi reservoir, located at the Halfaya oil field. It is regarded as one of the most significant oilfields in Iraq. The study includes several steps, the most essential of which was importing well logs from six oil wells to the Interactive Petrophysics software for conducting interpretation and analysis to calculate the petrophysical properties such as permeability, porosity, shale volume, water saturation, and NTG and then importing maps and the well tops to the Petrel software to build the 3D-Geological model and to calculate the value of the original oil in place. Three geological surfaces were produced for all Sadi units based on well-top data and the top Sadi structural map. The reservoir has

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 13 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes

Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

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