The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)
Visualization of subsurface geology is mainly considered as the framework of the required structure to provide distribution of petrophysical properties. The geological model helps to understand the behavior of the fluid flow in the porous media that is affected by heterogeneity of the reservoir and helps in calculating the initial oil in place as well as selecting accurate new well location. In this study, a geological model is built for Qaiyarah field, tertiary reservoir, relying on well data from 48 wells, including the location of wells, formation tops and contour map. The structural model is constructed for the tertiary reservoir, which is an asymmetrical anticline consisting of two domes separated by a saddle. It is found that
... Show MoreThe oil exports play a vital role in supporting economic development and raise the economic growth. The oil exports can increase the economic growth via three main channels which are supporting the productive, distributive and service sectors; increasing the investment and capital formation; and increasing the employment rate.
However, the oil exports did not have an important role in increasing the economic growth in Iraq. Therefore, it also did not provide the required support to other economic sectors, neither participated in increase the employees’ skills nor increase the investment rate. It may slightly contribute in enhancement the infrastructure that can attract the public and private investments
... Show MoreThe physical and elastic characteristics of rocks determine rock strengths in general. Rock strength is frequently assessed using porosity well logs such as neutron and sonic logs. The essential criteria for estimating rock mechanic parameters in petroleum engineering research are uniaxial compressive strength and elastic modulus. Indirect estimation using well-log data is necessary to measure these variables. This study attempts to create a single regression model that can accurately forecast rock mechanic characteristics for the Harth Carbonate Formation in the Fauqi oil field. According to the findings of this study, petrophysical parameters are reliable indexes for determining rock mechanical properties having good performance p
... Show MoreToday, there are large amounts of geospatial data available on the web such as Google Map (GM), OpenStreetMap (OSM), Flickr service, Wikimapia and others. All of these services called open source geospatial data. Geospatial data from different sources often has variable accuracy due to different data collection methods; therefore data accuracy may not meet the user requirement in varying organization. This paper aims to develop a tool to assess the quality of GM data by comparing it with formal data such as spatial data from Mayoralty of Baghdad (MB). This tool developed by Visual Basic language, and validated on two different study areas in Baghdad / Iraq (Al-Karada and Al- Kadhumiyah). The positional accuracy was asses
... Show MoreLanguage is an important means through which one can construct one's social world. Accordingly, the way we view ourselves and the world is basically formed by language use whereby identities, relations, and values are constructed and maintained. Most discourse analysts consider narrative not only the locus of construction and enactment of identity, but also a distinguished genre for its analysis.The present study is concerned with how identity can poetically be informed, hence exploring the way black poets use language when reflecting their identity and culture. The poem, right on: white america by the black American poetess Sonia Sanchez, is chosen to be analyzed based on Simpson's stylistic model (2004). In this model, the ana
... Show MoreIn data transmission a change in single bit in the received data may lead to miss understanding or a disaster. Each bit in the sent information has high priority especially with information such as the address of the receiver. The importance of error detection with each single change is a key issue in data transmission field.
The ordinary single parity detection method can detect odd number of errors efficiently, but fails with even number of errors. Other detection methods such as two-dimensional and checksum showed better results and failed to cope with the increasing number of errors.
Two novel methods were suggested to detect the binary bit change errors when transmitting data in a noisy media.Those methods were: 2D-Checksum me
Rainfall in Nigeria is highly dynamic and variable on a temporal and spatial scale. This has taken a more pronounced dimension due to climate change. In this study, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Mann-Kendall test statistical tools were employed to analyze rainfall trends and patterns in Gombe metropolis between 1990 and 2020 and the ARIMA model was used for making the forecast for ten (10) years. Daily rainfall data of 31 years obtained from Nigerian Meteorological Agency, (NIMET) was used for the study. The daily rainfall data was subjected to several analyses. Standard precipitation index showed that alternation of wet and dry period conditions had been witnessed in the study area. The result obtained showed that there is an u
... Show MoreTwelve albino mice was divided randomly into four groups comprising A through D injected with ceftazidime at sub MIC, Escherichia.. coli 11, Escherichia.. coli 11 with ceftazidime solution, and standard strain, respectively. Histopathological sections did not show any changes in respect to group A. however, group C suffered signs of infection less than those appeared in group B sections. Simultaneously, group D suffered intense histpathological changes more than other groups infected with resistant isolate.