The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The Artificial Neural Network methodology is a very important & new subjects that build's the models for Analyzing, Data Evaluation, Forecasting & Controlling without depending on an old model or classic statistic method that describe the behavior of statistic phenomenon, the methodology works by simulating the data to reach a robust optimum model that represent the statistic phenomenon & we can use the model in any time & states, we used the Box-Jenkins (ARMAX) approach for comparing, in this paper depends on the received power to build a robust model for forecasting, analyzing & controlling in the sod power, the received power come from
... Show MoreIn this research, the nonparametric technique has been presented to estimate the time-varying coefficients functions for the longitudinal balanced data that characterized by observations obtained through (n) from the independent subjects, each one of them is measured repeatedly by group of specific time points (m). Although the measurements are independent among the different subjects; they are mostly connected within each subject and the applied techniques is the Local Linear kernel LLPK technique. To avoid the problems of dimensionality, and thick computation, the two-steps method has been used to estimate the coefficients functions by using the two former technique. Since, the two-
... Show MoreAbstract
The article is devoted to the study of modal framework of the utterance with the semantics of “disappearance” in modern Russian language. The empirical basis of the study was the works of Russian writers, such as M.A. Bulgakov, F.M. Dostoevsky, A.I. Kuprin., L.M. Leonov, B.L. Pasternak, K.G. Paustovsky, L.N. Tolstoy, I.S. Turgenev and others. The author focuses special attention on the role of the modal component in the formation of the sentences and its modal semantics. A lot attention is paid to the analysis of the reasons of productivity / low productivity in the functioning of the temporal forms of the verbs that form these utterances. The nature of the material of study determined the choice of
... Show MoreThis study aimed to analyze and measure the relationship between oil revenues and financial sustainability in Iraq, the study used the stylistic approach inductive and deductive approach. Accompanied by the use of quantitative and analytical style, which was based on two variables oil revenues and net general budget on annual data covered the period (1990-2013). Among the most important findings of the study contain the time-series variables study on the root of the unit and is not stable in the general level, and become stable after the use of mathematical processors to gain access to a stable by taking the first difference of natural Ogartm of the series. The way (Johnson) to a long-term relationship between oil revenues and ne
... Show MoreBackground: A quick and easy method was developed for extraction of DNA of eukaryotes from different samples, which are bone marrow and sperms in white mice Mus musculus strain (Balb/c).
Patients and Methods: this method using high salt buffer, Ethylene diemine tetracetec acid (EDTA), Trypsine,Sodium Dodecyl Sulfate(SDS), and urea without using Proteinase-K digestion or ultracentrifugation.
Results: This method was successful in extracting DNA from different samples in eukaryotic and this DNA is suitable for Hind III digestion.
Conclusion: Without further clean-up, the extracted DNA can be used for restriction endonuclease digestion or for numerous applications.
This research is an attempt to solve the ambiguity associated with the stratigraphic setting of the main reservoir (late Cretaceous) of Mishrif Formation in Dujaila oil field. This was achieved by studying a 3D seismic reflection post-stack data for an area of 602.62 Km2 in Maysan Governorate, southeast of Iraq. Seismic analysis of the true amplitude reflections, time maps, and 3D depositional models showed a sufficient seismic evidence that the Mishrif Formation produces oil from a stratigraphic trap of isolated reef carbonate buildups that were grown on the shelf edge of the carbonate platform, located in the area around the productive well Dujaila-1. The low-frequency attribute illustrated tha
... Show MoreFive oil sample of Mashrif and Nahr Umr Formation for Amarah oil field,
southern Iraq, were taken and analyzed in Geo Mark laboratory in USA center in
order to determine the bulk properties of crude oils and carbon isotopes for these
samples in addition to determine biomarker parameters using Gas
Chromatography(GC), and Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry )GCMS
(analytical technique. According to these biomarker analyses of the two formation, it
is indicated that they are non-degraded, marine, non-waxy, derived from
carbonate source and deposition in anoxic marine environment. This study also
showed that the bulk properties (terpanes and steranes) of Amarah oil field are one
family, and the source rocks contai
3D geological model for each reservoir unit comprising the Yamama Formation revealed to that the formation is composed of alternating reservoirs and barriers. In Subba and Luhais fields the formation began with barrier YB-1 and four more barriers (YB-2, YB-3, YB-4, YB-5), separated five reservoirs (YR-A, YR-B, YR-C, YR-D, YR-E) ranging in thickness from 70 to 80 m for each of them deposited by five sedimentary cycles. In the Ratawi field the formation was divided into three reservoir units (YR-A, YR-B, and YR-C) separated by two barrier units (YB-2 and YB-3), the first cycle is missing in Ratawi field.
The study involves 1 well in Luhais field (Lu-12), 3 wells in Subba field (Su-7, Su-8, and Su-9), and 5 wells in Ratawi fi
... Show MoreSurvival analysis is widely applied to data that described by the length of time until the occurrence of an event under interest such as death or other important events. The purpose of this paper is to use the dynamic methodology which provides a flexible method, especially in the analysis of discrete survival time, to estimate the effect of covariate variables through time in the survival analysis on dialysis patients with kidney failure until death occurs. Where the estimations process is completely based on the Bayes approach by using two estimation methods: the maximum A Posterior (MAP) involved with Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. While the other
... Show MoreThis paper presents a grey model GM(1,1) of the first rank and a variable one and is the basis of the grey system theory , This research dealt properties of grey model and a set of methods to estimate parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the least square Method (LS) , weighted least square method (WLS), total least square method (TLS) and gradient descent method (DS). These methods were compared based on two types of standards: Mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and after comparison using simulation the best method was applied to real data represented by the rate of consumption of the two types of oils a Heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and has been applied several tests to
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