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A noval SVR estimation of figarch modal and forecasting for white oil data in Iraq
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The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2010
Journal Name
Positioning
Fluid Inclusions Usage for Assessing Oil Migration in Duhok, North Iraq
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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Some Estimation Methods Of GM(1,1) Model With Missing Data and Practical Application
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This paper presents a grey model GM(1,1) of the first rank and a variable one and is the basis of the grey system theory , This research dealt  properties of grey model and a set of methods to estimate parameters of the grey model GM(1,1)  is the least square Method (LS) , weighted least square method (WLS), total least square method (TLS) and gradient descent method  (DS). These methods were compared based on two types of standards: Mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and after comparison using simulation the best method was applied to real data represented by the rate of consumption of the two types of oils a Heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and has been applied several tests to

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Artificial Neural Network Models For Forecasting & Comparison
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The Artificial Neural Network methodology is a very important & new subjects that build's the models for Analyzing, Data Evaluation, Forecasting & Controlling without depending on an old model or classic statistic method that describe the behavior of statistic phenomenon, the methodology works by simulating the data to reach a robust optimum model that represent the statistic phenomenon & we can use the model in any time & states, we used the Box-Jenkins (ARMAX) approach for comparing, in this paper depends on the received power to build a robust model for forecasting, analyzing & controlling in the sod power, the received power come from

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 04 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using fuzzy logic for estimating monthly pan evaporation from meteorological data in Emara/ South of Iraq
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Evaporation is one of the major components of the hydrological cycle in the nature, thus its accurate estimation is so important in the planning and management of the irrigation practices and to assess water availability and requirements. The aim of this study is to investigate the ability of fuzzy inference system for estimating monthly pan evaporation form meteorological data. The study has been carried out depending on 261 monthly measurements of each of temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (W) which have been available in Emara meteorological station, southern Iraq. Three different fuzzy models comprising various combinations of monthly climatic variables (temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity) were developed

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 29 2023
Journal Name
Geomatics And Environmental Engineering
Challenges and Issues in Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) Development in Iraq
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This paper addresses the nature of Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI), considered as one of the most important concepts to ensure effective functioning in a modern society. It comprises a set of continually developing methods and procedures providing the geospatial base supporting a country’s governmental, environmental, economic, and social activities. In general, the SDI framework consists of the integration of various elements including standards, policies, networks, data, and end users and application areas. The transformation of previously paper-based map data into a digital format, the emergence of GIS, and the Internet and a host of online applications (e.g., environmental impact analysis, navigation, applications of VGI dat

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 14 2021
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
Estimation of domestic urban electricity consumption: A case study of Baghdad, Iraq
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Electricity consumption for household purposes in urban areas widely affects the general urban consumption compared to other commercial and industrial uses, as household electricity consumption is affected by many factors related to the physical aspects of the residential area such as temperature, housing unit area, and coverage ratio, as well as social and economic factors such as family size and income, to reach the extent of the influence of each of the above factors on the amount of electricity consumed for residential uses, a selected sample of a residential area in the city of Baghdad was studied and a field survey conducted of the characteristics of that sample and the results analyzed and modeled statistically in relation to the amo

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Methods of US propaganda in Iraq- A Study of Coalition Provisional Authority and US Army Data after 2003
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with an organized propaganda campaign. This military campaign was helped to formulate its speech by many institutions, research centers, and knowledge and intelligence circles in order to mobilize public opinion gain supporters and face the opponents by different means depending on a variety of styles to achieve its required effects. 
          After the US occupation of Iraq, US media fighters sought to influence the Iraqi public opinion and making them convinced them of the important presence of US military forces in Iraq which necessitated finding its justification through the use of persuasive techniques in its intensive propaganda campaigns. 
  This research discusses the most important

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 28 2025
Journal Name
Energies
Synergizing Machine Learning and Physical Models for Enhanced Gas Production Forecasting: A Comparative Study of Short- and Long-Term Feasibility
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Advanced strategies for production forecasting, operational optimization, and decision-making enhancement have been employed through reservoir management and machine learning (ML) techniques. A hybrid model is established to predict future gas output in a gas reservoir through historical production data, including reservoir pressure, cumulative gas production, and cumulative water production for 67 months. The procedure starts with data preprocessing and applies seasonal exponential smoothing (SES) to capture seasonality and trends in production data, while an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) captures complicated spatiotemporal connections. The history replication in the models is quantified for accuracy through metric keys such as m

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimation Mean Wind Speed in Iraq By Using Parametric And Nonparametric Linear Mixed Models
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In this research, the one of the most important model and widely used in many and applications is linear mixed model, which widely used to analysis the longitudinal data that characterized by the repeated measures form .where estimating linear mixed model by using two methods (parametric and nonparametric) and used to estimate the conditional mean and marginal mean in linear mixed model ,A comparison between number of models is made to get the best model that will represent the mean wind speed in Iraq.The application is concerned with 8 meteorological stations in Iraq that we selected randomly and   then we take a monthly data about wind speed over ten years Then average it over each month in corresponding year, so we g

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2024
Journal Name
Tikrit Journal For Dental Sciences
Enamel White Spot Lesions: A Review of Etiology, Prevention, and Treatment
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Enamel White Spot Lesions (EWSLs) are a common dental condition characterized by being opaque or chalky white in appearance. In this review, an overview of the etiology, prevention, and treatment techniques for EWSLs is presented. Enamel demineralization caused by bacteria in dental plaque which releases acids upon the consumption of fermentable carbohydrates causing mineral loss is thought to be the main cause of those lesions, which could be predisposed through orthodontic treatment, poor diet, inadequate oral hygiene and certain medical conditions. So, sustaining an adequate carbohydrate consumption, proper fluoride exposure and good oral hygiene are some of the practices which aid in these lesions’ prevention. Although the suc

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