The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Oil industry played a major role in delineating the course and type o development in both imported and exported Arabic countries alike where its revenues has perform an essential role in forming programs and plans of development on both national and international level in addition to anticipation of future consuming.
Iraq, as an oil producer country with a revenues –based economy depends on oil in building its economy totally including its infrastructure having a the greatest conformed reservoir which make the government budget depends largely on oil revenues where its strategic importance lies in funding all aspects of expenders as it is considered the prime source of foreign currency. The chall
... Show MoreThe faujasite type Y zeolite catalyst was prepared from locally available kaolin. For prepared faujasite type NaY zeolite X-ray, FT-IR, BET pore volume and surface area, and silica/ alumina were determined. The Xray and FT-IR show the compatibility of prepared catalyst with the general structure of standard zeolite Y. BET test shows that the surface area and pore volume of prepared catalyst were 360 m2 /g and 0.39 cm3 /g respectively.
The prepared faujasite type NaY zeolite modified by exchanging sodium ion with ammonium ion using ammonium nitrate and then ammonium ion converted to hydrogen ion. The maximum sodium ion exchange with ammonium ion was 53.6%. The catalytic activity of prepared faujasite type NaY, NaNH4Y and NaHY zeolites
The increase globally fossil fuel consumption as it represents the main source of energy around the world, and the sources of heavy oil more than light, different techniques were used to reduce the viscosity and increase mobility of heavy crude oil. this study focusing on the experimental tests and modeling with Back Feed Forward Artificial Neural Network (BFF-ANN) of the dilution technique to reduce a heavy oil viscosity that was collected from the south- Iraq oil fields using organic solvents, organic diluents with different weight percentage (5, 10 and 20 wt.% ) of (n-heptane, toluene, and a mixture of different ratio
... Show MoreThe study includes building a 3-D geological model, which involves get the Petrophysical properties as (porosity, permeability and water saturation). Effective Porosity, water saturation results from log interpretation process and permeability from special correlation using core data and log data. Clay volume can be calculated by six ways using IP software v3.5 the best way was by using gamma Ray. Also, Water Resistivity, flushed zone saturation and bulk volume analysis determined through geological study. Lithology determined in several ways using M-N matrix Identification, Density-Neutron and Sonic-Neutron cross plots. The cut off values are determined by Using EHC (Equivalent Hydra
Rotating cylinder electrode (RCE) is used . in weight loss technique , the salinity is 200000 p.p.m, temperatures are (30,5060,7080Co) . the velocity of (RCE) are (500,1500,3000 r.p.m). the water cut (30% , 50%). The corrosion rate of carbon steel increase with increasing rotating cylinder velocity. In single phase flow, an increase im rotational velocity from 500 to 1500 r.p.m, the corrosion rate increase from 6.88258 mm/y to 10.11563 mm/y respectively.
In multiphase flow, an increase in (RCE) from 500 to 1500 r.p.m leads to increase in corrosion rate from 0.786153 to 0.910327 mm/y respectively. Increasing brine concentration leads to increase in corrosion rate at water cut 30%.
Asphaltene is a component class that may precipitate from petroleum as a highly viscous and sticky material that is likely to cause deposition problems in a reservoir, in production well, transportation, and in process plants. It is more important to locate the asphaltene precipitation conditions (precipitation pressure and temperature) before the occurring problem of asphaltene deposition to prevent it and eliminate the burden of high treatment costs of this problem if it happens. There are different models which are used in this flow assurance problem (asphaltene precipitation and deposition problem) and these models depend on experimental testing of asphaltene properties. In this study, the used model was equation of
... Show MoreOf the many functions that are performed by the drilling fluid, the most important is to transport cuttings from the bit up the annulus to the surface. Various drilling fluid have been widely used in the oil industry to improve lifting capacity. In this study, three mud type have been used which they are, oil base mud, X-anthan polymer and a mixture of CMC and bentonite ,by using Carrying Capacity Index calculation (CCI) , the Xanthan gave good values of CCI than other studied drilling fluid. By using Sifferman chart and field data from well in south of Iraq and API equation to find cutting concentration in the annulus, The results showed that the used of thick mud increase the lifting capacity and decrease volumetric drill c
... Show MoreObjective: Comprehending microbial diversity and antibiotic resistance patterns is essential for efficient treatment protocols. This study sought to determine the incidence of bacterial and fungal pathogens responsible for burn and wound infections and their antibiotic susceptibility profiles. Methods: This cross-sectional study involved 140 patients with burn or wound infections. Sterile swabs and pus aspiration were employed to collect samples, which were subsequently processed using standard microbiological procedures. Antibiotic resistance was determined using the Kirby-Bauer disc diffusion method, following Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) guidelines. Data was analysed using IBM SPSS version 25.0, and the Chi-
... Show MoreBackground: Coping skills play a vital role in managing the physical and psychological effects of breast cancer (BC). Despite improvements in early detection and treatment, Breast cancer survivors continue to face long-term challenges after diagnosis. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the coping skills employed by breast cancer women in Iraq and to identify the sociodemographic, clinical, and psychological factors associated with these coping skills. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 244 breast cancer women in The Medical City Teaching Oncology Hospital, Baghdad, Iraq, from August 2023 to October 2023, coping skills and psychological factors were assessed using the BRIEF COPE-28, and Hospital Anxiety Depression scale
... Show MoreA field trial was conducted at Abu-Ghraib research station , Baghdad , Iraq . The objectives were to study the effect of nitrogen fertilizer and planting space on the performance of rape seed. A split-plot in a randomized complete of block design with three replications were used. Five levels of nitrogen fertilizer ( 120,160,200,240,280 Kg / ha ) were assigned to main plots, where as planting space in sub-plots. The result obtained confirmed that 280,240 kg / ha nitrogen maximized seed yield 1.830 , 1.773 ton/ha, oil yield,0.843,0.824 ton/ha .Results showed that planting space 30 cm produced the highest seed yield 1.90 ton / ha and oil yield , 0.884 ton / ha . Interactions between nitrogen fertilizer and p
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