The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The importance of the research from a practical point of view lies in the fact that it presents a set of statistics and data that give a clear picture of how the Iraqi newspapers (the subject of the study) deal with the visit of "Pope Francis" to Iraq ، and what are the most prominent indicators and manifestations of that visit in promoting societal peace among the Iraqi public. From a scientific point of view، the research provides another scientific addition to the media library، especially with regard to journalistic treatments and methods of framing the Arab international press for the subject of the visit، which could be a starting point for other researchers to complete qualitative research in this field. The research prob
... Show MoreAbstract: The marsh areas are spread over vast areas of the Iraqi alluvial plain and within areas of varying width among them. Opinions also differ about the origin of the formation and theories related to the formation of the marsh area and the successive political roles on it. Some specialists attribute it to irregularity in the river sediments of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers during their march towards the Gulf. Arab, and an opinion about the advancement of the waters of the Arabian Gulf towards the north before the borders of 4000 BC. The marsh areas are divided into three main regions (eastern - central and southern), and there are ancient marshes (the Susiana Marshes - the Chaldean Marshes and the Babylonian Marshes), and modern mar
... Show MoreThis research deals with unusual approach for analyzing the Simple Linear Regression via Linear Programming by Two - phase method, which is known in Operations Research: “O.R.”. The estimation here is found by solving optimization problem when adding artificial variables: Ri. Another method to analyze the Simple Linear Regression is introduced in this research, where the conditional Median of (y) was taken under consideration by minimizing the Sum of Absolute Residuals instead of finding the conditional Mean of (y) which depends on minimizing the Sum of Squared Residuals, that is called: “Median Regression”. Also, an Iterative Reweighted Least Squared based on the Absolute Residuals as weights is performed here as another method to
... Show MoreThis research aims at making a comparative survey between the dry season in (2017-2018) and the wet season (2018-2019) in Iraq concerning the variation of rainfall and pressure systems responsible for such a difference. In this paper, seven climatological stations have been selected: Mosul, Kirkuk, Khanaqin, Baghdad, Rutba, Diwaniyah and Basra. Results have shown that the first category of rainfall of the two seasons has recorded a higher number of rainy days in comparison with the second and third categories with a total of 274 day in a dry season and 403 day of a wet season. Further, the total amount of the annual continuous rain is higher than the total of thunderstorms in a dry season as well as in the
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to provide an analytical study to promote financial inclusion in Iraq by clarifying the opportunities and challenges of the economic and demographic situation in Iraq, studying the structure of the financial system and introducing non-bank financial institutions operating in Iraq, and using the descriptive approach. Analytical in the study of the phenomenon of research, the research reached a number of conclusions, the most prominent of which were:
- Iraqi society is a young society.
- The majority of the population is 70 percent. They live almost in urban areas.
- The coverage of bank branch networks is concentrated in only four provinces, leaving other provinces outside financial
This research attempts to shed light on a topic that is considered one of the most important topics of HRMs management, which is the Employee centric approach by examining its philosophy and understanding . To achieve the goal, the research relied on the philosophical analytical method, which is one of the approaches used in theoretical studies. The research reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which are the theoretical studies that addressed this entry in the English language and the lack of it in the Arabic language, according to the researcher's knowledge. The research reached a set of recommendations, the most important of which was that this approach needs more research, analysis and study at the practical and th
... Show MoreThe main purpose of the research is to demonstrate the importance of the insurance sector in the economy through its role in providing security for all economic sectors and thus stimulating the gross domestic product and reducing dependence on the output of the oil sector, which may expose the Iraqi economy to several problems and imbalances, I have found that there is a great weakness in the role of the insurance sector in Iraq at the level of government, companies and individuals, and the reason for this is the lack of policies supporting the insurance sector and the lack of work in the strategy of economic diversity and the decrease of security awareness by individuals so became Developing the sector to ensure the urgent need
... Show MoreThree scolopacids out of 150 are found infected with Haemoproteus scolopaci Galli-
Valerio 1929 and H. tringae n. sp. A detailed description of the new taxon is presented along
with a comparison of the diagnostic measurements between the two species.
In this research want to make analysis for some indicators and it's classifications that related with the teaching process and the scientific level for graduate studies in the university by using analysis of variance for ranked data for repeated measurements instead of the ordinary analysis of variance . We reach many conclusions for the
important classifications for each indicator that has affected on the teaching process. &nb
... Show MoreThe research presents the reliability. It is defined as the probability of accomplishing any part of the system within a specified time and under the same circumstances. On the theoretical side, the reliability, the reliability function, and the cumulative function of failure are studied within the one-parameter Raleigh distribution. This research aims to discover many factors that are missed the reliability evaluation which causes constant interruptions of the machines in addition to the problems of data. The problem of the research is that there are many methods for estimating the reliability function but no one has suitable qualifications for most of these methods in the data such