The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Many economists believe that the development and promotion of small and medium-sized enterprises is one of the most important sources of economic and social development in countries in general and in developing countries in particular. This is considered to be an essential starting point for increasing production capacity and contributing to tackling poverty and unemployment. In view of the importance of these projects, most developing countries have concentrated their efforts on them. They have encouraged the establishment of small and medium industries, especially after they have proved their ability and efficiency in dealing with the major problems facing different economies.
The banking system plays an important role by finan
... Show MoreThe Banking Supervision of the most important functions of the Central Bank of Iraq, which he intended to have a strong banking system and a sound and competitive, and exercised control over the banks by inspection bodies to ensure their compliance with the laws, regulations and orders and instructions and the safety of their financial positions.
The research was aimed to release the concept of banking inspection, compliance and problems and obstacles faced by the inspectors, and monitors compliance and down to make recommendations.
Has been reached on a set of theoretical and practical conclusions, including: -
1-confirmed the statistical analysis of the answers to the research sample the importance of the role o
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The ability of pulverized walnut-shell to remove oil from aqueous solutions has been studied. It involves two-phase process which consists of using walnut-shell as a filtering bed for the accumulation and adsorption of oil onto its surface. Up to 96% oil removal from synthetic wastewater samples was achieved while tests results showed that 75% of oil can be removed from the actual wastewater discharged from Al- Duara refinery in the south of Baghdad.
All major organs may be impacted by the connective disease systemic lupus erythematosus, a separate risk factor for coronary artery disease (CAD). Adhesion molecules like intercellular adhesion molecules (ICAM) and vascular cell adhesion molecules (VCAM) can detect endothelial damage and dysfunction, which appear to play a crucial role. This study investigated whether people with SLE had elevated subclinical and clinical atherosclerosis risk factors. Traditional CAD risk factors such as smoking, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia cannot entirely explain this elevation. It is thought that immunological dysfunction also increases CAD risk in SLE patients. The study aimed to assess early endothelial changes in SLE Iraqi female patients w
... Show MoreAbstract Daily dressing changes cause distress and pain for victims of burn injuries. The study aimed to determine the effect of music in reducing the pain and anxiety of thermally burned children during routine dressing changes. This quantitative study employed a randomized controlled trial design. The participants comprised 80 children at the Specialized Burns Hospital, in Baghdad, Iraq who were divided into two groups. The intervention group were exposed to three generic musical pieces (children’s music, nature sounds, and classical music) for 10-15 minutes. The researchers used the Objective Pain Scale, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, and physiological parameters to measure the children’s responses immediately before the dressing cha
... Show MoreNonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a
... Show MoreObjectives: The research aims to highlight the semiotic approach and apply it to a photograph of the Pope's reception at Baghdad International Airport, published on the page of the Media Office of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi in the Twitter application, in order to study its components, analyze its contents and clarify its implications, as well as approach the image as a political and media act. Methods: The stages of research were accomplished by "investigation, observation, and analysis", and the dismantling of the composition of the photograph, thus revealing the hidden and hidden aspects, relying on the semiotic approach to analysis. Results: The study showed that the ideas and meanings included in the image in form
... Show MoreThe experiment was carried out at the Field Crops Research Station, College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences - University of Baghdad in Jadiriyah, with the aim of evaluating the performance of partial diallel hybrids and inbred lines of maize and estimating general combining ability(GCA), specific combining ability (SCA) and some genetic parameters. The experiment was carried out in two seasons, spring and fall 2020. Eight inbred lines of maize were used in the study (BI9/834, BSW18, LW/5 L8/844, ZA17W194, Z117W, ZI17W9, ZI7W4), numbered (1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8), It was sowed in the spring season and entered into a cross-program according to a partial diallel crossing system to obtain tw
Multilocus haplotype analysis of candidate variants with genome wide association studies (GWAS) data may provide evidence of association with disease, even when the individual loci themselves do not. Unfortunately, when a large number of candidate variants are investigated, identifying risk haplotypes can be very difficult. To meet the challenge, a number of approaches have been put forward in recent years. However, most of them are not directly linked to the disease-penetrances of haplotypes and thus may not be efficient. To fill this gap, we propose a mixture model-based approach for detecting risk haplotypes. Under the mixture model, haplotypes are clustered directly according to their estimated d