The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The development of a future mechanism for sustainable development in Iraq to meet the current and future challenges requires an analysis of the indicators of sustainable development. This research aims at presenting and analyzing the social care aspect and highlighting the important role of taxes with a focus on social sustainable development to determine the extent and direction of changes. Level of progress, the researcher concludes the weakness of the financial allocations to the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs and in line with the large number of people who apply the conditions and controls, and recommends the researcher the necessity of participation of all segments of society between the public and private sector In terms of o
... Show MoreImmunization is one of the most cost-effective and successful public health applications. The results of immunization are difficult to see as the incidence of disease occurrence is low while adverse effects following the immunization are noticeable, particularly if the vaccine was given to apparently healthy person. High safety expectations of population regarding the vaccines so they are more prone to hesitancy regarding presence of even small risk of adverse events which may lead to loss of pub
... Show MoreCorruption is a phenomenon that exists in all times and places, they appear in the developing countries and in developed countries, and in all political systems. And its repercussions and economic repercussions on the society in which it is rampant, and lead to the undermining of economic development and obstruction, is also working on increasing poverty and unemployment, as well as its role in the worsening of social problems, and political instability. And corruption is deviant behavior is illegal and contrary to the teachings of the religious and moral values. The emergence of this phenomenon is due to several reasons, including political, economic, social and cultura
... Show MoreBackground: Mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pneumoniae) is an important respiratory bacterial pathogen, especially among children. It causes acute upper and lower respiratory infections.Objective: This study was aimed to measure anti- M. pneumoniae antibodies among hospitalized children who were admitted to hospital diagnosed with acute respiratory tract infections.Method: Automated ELISA technique was performed to detect anti- M. pneumoniae antibodies (IgM and IgG antibodies) in serum from 108 children less than 5 years old. The children were admitted to the Pediatric Teaching Hospital in Suleimani city/Kurdistan Region/Iraq because of acute respiratory tract infections. A questionnaire was designed to collect demographic and clinical data fr
... Show MorePolish Academy of Sciences
Representing banking supervision An important function performed by the Iraqi Central Bank, in order to achieve stability in the financial and banking system, and safeguard the rights of depositors, investors and other targets, and to realize the Iraqi Central Bank banking supervision actors on banks, there must be an awareness of regulatory bank's existing control and subject them, as well as the role of banking oversight interested in spreading this awareness.
So sought search to find out the role played by the Iraqi Central Bank in raising awareness of the regulatory banking between the parties to the regulatory process, through the presentation and analysis of the legal framework for banking supervision and awareness supervisory
The banks mobilize savings and channel them to the economy, whether commercial or Islamic banks and thus both contribute to increasing financial depth, the objective of this paper is to measure the contribution of the Islamic banks in increase financial depth in Iraq, and compared the role played by private commercial banks in contributing to increasing financial depth in Iraq. The paper has been applying the most used indicators of financial depth that used widely in the literatures, especially those applicable with the Iraqi economy.
The paper found via using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) that Islamic banks did not contribute to increasing financial depth in Iraq, as well as for the p
... Show Moreهدف البحث الى بيان طبيعة ارتباط والتأثير بين الضغوط التنافسية (المتغير المستقل) والتجديد الاستراتيجي (المتغير التابع) ، تم تطبيق البحث في فنادق الدرجة الممتازة في بغداد. وبلغت عدد افراد عينة البحث (99) مديراً يعملون في (6) فنادق من الدرجة (الممتازة) ببغداد، وهي (فندق الرشيد، فندق عشتار، فندق ميريديان، فندق المنصور، فندق بابل، وفندق بغداد) وتم اجراء التحليل الاحصائي باستخدام البرنامج الاحصائي AMOS وظهرت وجود تنافسي
... Show MoreBackground:The effects of contraception on Trichomonas vaginalis have important implications for women who suffer from infections associated with disruptions in the vaginal ecology, such as bacterial vaginitis and urinary tract infections.
Objective: To find the association of the common types of contraceptions with the Trichomonasvaginalis infection in women admitted to the Al-BatoolTeaching Hospital for Maternity and Children in Baqubah city.
Type of study: Cross-sectional study
Methods: This study consist of 75 women with contraception use and71 apparently healthy non contraception user women admitted to outpatient in Al
... Show MoreThe objective of the present study is to determine the effect of Kaolin as a fuel oil additive to minimize the fireside corrosion of superheater boiler tubes of ASTM designation (A213-T22) by increasing the melting point of the formed slag on the outside tubes surface, through the formation of new compounds with protective properties to the metal surface. The study included measuring corrosion rates at different temperatures with and without additive use with various periods of time, through crucible test method and weight loss technique.
A mathematical model represents the relation between corrosion rate and the studied variables, is obtained using statistical regression analysis. Using this model,
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