The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Mersing is one of the places that have the potential for wind power development in Malaysia. Researchers often suggest it as an ideal place for generating electricity from wind power. However, before a location is chosen, several factors need to be considered. By analyzing the location ahead of time, resource waste can be avoided and maximum profitability to various parties can be realized. For this study, the focus is to identify the distribution of the wind speed of Mersing and to determine the optimal average of wind speed. This study is critical because the wind speed data for any region has its distribution. It changes daily and by season. Moreover, no determination has been made regarding selecting the average wind speed used for w
... Show MoreThis current research deals with the "The role of organizational change in the achievement of strategic success" Who are getting increased attention to being one of the important topics and relatively new, And which have a significant impact on the future of the organization So there is a need for this research, which aims to identify the role of organizational change across dimensions (technology, organizational structure, human resources, organizational culture) in the strategic success through its components (a specific strategy, effective implementation, innovation, customer satisfaction)، And that by two main hypotheses, branched about eight hypothes
... Show MoreA survey of haemoproteids among the eight species of Iraq rallids were carried out in the
middle, south, and west of Iraq. Two haemoproteods were recorded, Haeomproteus porzanae
(Galli-Valerio, 1907) as a new record for Iraq and the new species H. baghdadensis described
from Fulica atra L. collected in the middle of Iraq.
Zanthoxylum L. 1753 belongs to the family Rutaceae. The plant, with its forest green color and with its distinctive fragrance attracted the attention of the study, specially it was an exotic to the environment of Iraq. Zanthoxylum is an exotic plant produced to Iraq and planted in gardens as an ever-green aromatic plant named (BUKHUR HINDI), as it is known among sellers and farmers in Iraq, because of the aromatic smell that emanated from the leaves and resembles Indian incense. The plant adapted to environmental conditions and succeeded in growing and blooming. It was examined and diagnosed for the first time in Iraq as Zanthoxylum beechyanum K. Koch. (Chinese pepper tree). Morphological characteristics and anatomical characteristi
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to estimate the parameters and reliability function for kumaraswamy distribution of this two positive parameter (a,b > 0), which is a continuous probability that has many characterstics with the beta distribution with extra advantages.
The shape of the function for this distribution and the most important characterstics are explained and estimated the two parameter (a,b) and the reliability function for this distribution by using the maximum likelihood method (MLE) and Bayes methods. simulation experiments are conducts to explain the behaviour of the estimation methods for different sizes depending on the mean squared error criterion the results show that the Bayes is bet
... Show MoreIn this study, the mobile phone traces concern an ephemeral event which represents important densities of people. This research aims to study city pulse and human mobility evolution that would be arise during specific event (Armada festival), by modelling and simulating human mobility of the observed region, depending on CDRs (Call Detail Records) data. The most pivot questions of this research are: Why human mobility studied? What are the human life patterns in the observed region inside Rouen city during Armada festival? How life patterns and individuals' mobility could be extracted for this region from mobile DB (CDRs)? The radius of gyration parameter has been applied to elaborate human life patterns with regards to (work, off) days for
... Show MoreEstimation of the names and verbs of some letters to consider the grammatical industry