The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The development issue is considered as one of the most important matters of concern to governments, intellectuals and specialists in the contemporary world, especially in developing countries that are trying hard to move out of the afflicting underdevelopment domain to a brighter future and achieve the aspirations of those countries through organized planning which take advantage of available resources, whether material or humanitarian, in the best way possible.
The development process are taking place at multiple levels ranging from national to regional to local where the community is stimulated and excited for the cooperation, participation and preparation to perform planned change in the methods of thinking, acting and production.<
The ration card system is a kind of support provided by the state to individuals through the provision of essential goods at subsidized prices during the period of war or crisis. For many years, the ration card was an essential source of food supplies to Iraqis, especially under the economic siege of the nineties, But after the events of 2003 and the passage of Iraq's political and economic changes required radical reforms in the ration card system according to the recipes of the International Monetary Fund. It was evident from the estimation of the demand function that the price did not have the greatest impact on this type of goods because the ration card items are subsidized by the government. There is also a
... Show MoreTwo groups of chronic hepatitis B and C virus patients were divided into Pre-treated patients (25 CHB patients with positive HBs Ag for more than 6 months and 40 CHC patients), and post-treated patients [12 CHB patients (4, 6, and 2 were treated with lamivudine, IFN-? and combination of LMV + IFN-? respectively), and 27 patients for CHC (3, 13 and 11 patients were treated with Ribavirin, IFN-? and combination therapy (RBV+ IFN-?) respectively].These patients were followed up for 6 months. By using ELISA technique, levels of IL-6, IL-10, IFN-? and TNF-? were measured in vivo and in vitro (supernatant of PBMCs stimulated with PHA) and compared with healthy control. The mean level of IL-6, IL-10 and TNF-? in CHB patients showed significant dif
... Show MoreMersing is one of the places that have the potential for wind power development in Malaysia. Researchers often suggest it as an ideal place for generating electricity from wind power. However, before a location is chosen, several factors need to be considered. By analyzing the location ahead of time, resource waste can be avoided and maximum profitability to various parties can be realized. For this study, the focus is to identify the distribution of the wind speed of Mersing and to determine the optimal average of wind speed. This study is critical because the wind speed data for any region has its distribution. It changes daily and by season. Moreover, no determination has been made regarding selecting the average wind speed used for w
... Show MoreThe research aims to shed light on the financing structure, which is one of the important pillars of financial management in the commercial banking sector, which enhances its financial position through financing its various investments, which is one of the pillars of the successful economy of the commercial banking sector. in which country. The contents of the research variables, which were represented by the independent variable, financing structure, the dependent variable, and investment decisions in commercial banks, which the researcher tried to address, as the research began with a basic variable that depends on diagnosing the impact of the financin
... Show MoreBig data analysis has important applications in many areas such as sensor networks and connected healthcare. High volume and velocity of big data bring many challenges to data analysis. One possible solution is to summarize the data and provides a manageable data structure to hold a scalable summarization of data for efficient and effective analysis. This research extends our previous work on developing an effective technique to create, organize, access, and maintain summarization of big data and develops algorithms for Bayes classification and entropy discretization of large data sets using the multi-resolution data summarization structure. Bayes classification and data discretization play essential roles in many learning algorithms such a
... Show MoreThe objective of this study is to examine the properties of Bayes estimators of the shape parameter of the Power Function Distribution (PFD-I), by using two different prior distributions for the parameter θ and different loss functions that were compared with the maximum likelihood estimators. In many practical applications, we may have two different prior information about the prior distribution for the shape parameter of the Power Function Distribution, which influences the parameter estimation. So, we used two different kinds of conjugate priors of shape parameter θ of the <
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to estimate the parameters and reliability function for kumaraswamy distribution of this two positive parameter (a,b > 0), which is a continuous probability that has many characterstics with the beta distribution with extra advantages.
The shape of the function for this distribution and the most important characterstics are explained and estimated the two parameter (a,b) and the reliability function for this distribution by using the maximum likelihood method (MLE) and Bayes methods. simulation experiments are conducts to explain the behaviour of the estimation methods for different sizes depending on the mean squared error criterion the results show that the Bayes is bet
... Show MoreToday, the science of artificial intelligence has become one of the most important sciences in creating intelligent computer programs that simulate the human mind. The goal of artificial intelligence in the medical field is to assist doctors and health care workers in diagnosing diseases and clinical treatment, reducing the rate of medical error, and saving lives of citizens. The main and widely used technologies are expert systems, machine learning and big data. In the article, a brief overview of the three mentioned techniques will be provided to make it easier for readers to understand these techniques and their importance.