The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
In this study, the mobile phone traces concern an ephemeral event which represents important densities of people. This research aims to study city pulse and human mobility evolution that would be arise during specific event (Armada festival), by modelling and simulating human mobility of the observed region, depending on CDRs (Call Detail Records) data. The most pivot questions of this research are: Why human mobility studied? What are the human life patterns in the observed region inside Rouen city during Armada festival? How life patterns and individuals' mobility could be extracted for this region from mobile DB (CDRs)? The radius of gyration parameter has been applied to elaborate human life patterns with regards to (work, off) days for
... Show MoreBig data analysis has important applications in many areas such as sensor networks and connected healthcare. High volume and velocity of big data bring many challenges to data analysis. One possible solution is to summarize the data and provides a manageable data structure to hold a scalable summarization of data for efficient and effective analysis. This research extends our previous work on developing an effective technique to create, organize, access, and maintain summarization of big data and develops algorithms for Bayes classification and entropy discretization of large data sets using the multi-resolution data summarization structure. Bayes classification and data discretization play essential roles in many learning algorithms such a
... Show MoreProtection of the oil pipelineswhich extracted from the wells was found to shut the well and prevent the leakage of oil when broken using safety valve. This valve is automatically activated by loss of pressure between the well and pipelines, which take the pressure, signal from hydraulic pressure sensor through pressure control valve which has constant or variable value but it is regulated manually. The manual regulatory process requires the presence of monitoring workers continuously near the wells which are always found in remote areas. In this paper, a smart system has been proposed that work with proportional pressure control valve and also electronic pressure sensor through Arduino controller, which is programmed in a way that satisfie
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The increasing of some traded Agricultural crops prices coincide with the increasing of crude oil prices in global market since the beginning of 21st century which indicate the possibility of short run and long run causality relation between the imported economic variables. The study aims to analysis the causality effects between some of Agricultural crops prices imported by Iraq and the prices of crude oil and Iraq dinar exchange rate in global markets for period (2004:1 -2016:4) theory for developing the adequate price and economic police for Iraqi economic sector. The results show the existence of short- run and long- run between the eco
... Show MoreThere is no doubt that Agricultural Policy is the main responsible for the degrading in Agricultural sector in Iraq during the period 2003-2013, and that was very clear from magnitude of indicators because of little sharing of each of agricultural product in GDP because it was (9.38%) in average during the study period and the annual changing of it was negative (-5.82%), and there is increasing in deficit of trade balance in Agriculture during the study period about (4185.73) million US$, and the percentage of agricultural exports from total exports was (0.14%) in average only. The foreign trade policy in Agricultural products also cannot determine map of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) of Agricultural products and crops. The study sh
... Show MoreIndicators of government debt is of extreme importanse in economic activity through knowledge of the economic impact of government debt, if the phenomenon is accepted or prepared to dangerous stage by stage, and there fore it can Through these indicators to measure the degree of indebtedness in relation to the economic activity of the Government on the one hand, the governments ability to repay the other hand.
Due to this it inferred that the degree of indebtedness in Iraq specificratio has exceed 60% during the period 1990 – 2002 ntejh lack of political and economic stability of the government, which led to the governments inability to repay the ma
... Show MoreToday, the science of artificial intelligence has become one of the most important sciences in creating intelligent computer programs that simulate the human mind. The goal of artificial intelligence in the medical field is to assist doctors and health care workers in diagnosing diseases and clinical treatment, reducing the rate of medical error, and saving lives of citizens. The main and widely used technologies are expert systems, machine learning and big data. In the article, a brief overview of the three mentioned techniques will be provided to make it easier for readers to understand these techniques and their importance.
Petrophysical characterization is the most important stage in reservoir management. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate reservoir properties and lithological identification of Nahr Umar Formation in Nasiriya oil field. The available well logs are (sonic, density, neutron, gamma-ray, SP, and resistivity logs). The petrophysical parameters such as the volume of clay, porosity, permeability, water saturation, were computed and interpreted using IP4.4 software. The lithology prediction of Nahr Umar formation was carried out by sonic -density cross plot technique. Nahr Umar Formation was divided into five units based on well logs interpretation and petrophysical Analysis: Nu-1 to Nu-5. The formation lithology is mainly
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