The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Zanthoxylum L. 1753 belongs to the family Rutaceae. The plant, with its forest green color and with its distinctive fragrance attracted the attention of the study, specially it was an exotic to the environment of Iraq. Zanthoxylum is an exotic plant produced to Iraq and planted in gardens as an ever-green aromatic plant named (BUKHUR HINDI), as it is known among sellers and farmers in Iraq, because of the aromatic smell that emanated from the leaves and resembles Indian incense. The plant adapted to environmental conditions and succeeded in growing and blooming. It was examined and diagnosed for the first time in Iraq as Zanthoxylum beechyanum K. Koch. (Chinese pepper tree). Morphological characteristics and anatomical characteristi
... Show MoreA survey of haemoproteids among the eight species of Iraq rallids were carried out in the
middle, south, and west of Iraq. Two haemoproteods were recorded, Haeomproteus porzanae
(Galli-Valerio, 1907) as a new record for Iraq and the new species H. baghdadensis described
from Fulica atra L. collected in the middle of Iraq.
هدف البحث الى بيان طبيعة ارتباط والتأثير بين الضغوط التنافسية (المتغير المستقل) والتجديد الاستراتيجي (المتغير التابع) ، تم تطبيق البحث في فنادق الدرجة الممتازة في بغداد. وبلغت عدد افراد عينة البحث (99) مديراً يعملون في (6) فنادق من الدرجة (الممتازة) ببغداد، وهي (فندق الرشيد، فندق عشتار، فندق ميريديان، فندق المنصور، فندق بابل، وفندق بغداد) وتم اجراء التحليل الاحصائي باستخدام البرنامج الاحصائي AMOS وظهرت وجود تنافسي
... Show MoreThis study aimed to extraction of essential oil from peppermint leaves by using hydro distillation methods. In the peppermint oil extraction with hydro distillation method is studied the effect of the extraction temperature to the yield of peppermint oil. Besides it also studied the kinetics during the extraction process. Then, 2nd -order mechanism was adopted in the model of hydro distillation for estimation many parameters such as the initial extraction rate, capacity of extraction and the constant rat of extraction with various temperature. The same model was also used to estimate the activation energy. The results showed a spontaneous process, since the Gibbs free energy had a value negative sign.
Abstract
The government spending in Iraq and witnessed the changes and developments, especially after 2003, which outweighed consumer spending at the expense of capital expenditure and increased support and diversity of trends towards improving pension conditions for member
... Show MoreForty – two elderly hypothyroidism patients and forty – two apparently healthy as control groups , divided to (21) male (M) and (21) female (F) also (21) control male C(M) and (21) control female C(F) aged > 60 years, were tested for the presence of thyroid peroxidase autoantibody (TPo – Ab) and thyroglobulin auto antibody (Tg – Ab) , also for Se and Zn levels in their sera . The results revealed a significant increase in (TPO – Ab) and (Tg – Ab) for group (M) and (F) compared to control group , also a siginificant increase in TPo – Ab and Tg – Ab for (F) compared to (M) was found. A significant decrease in Se and Zn level for (M) and (F) compared to control group, while no significant difference between (M) and (F). In conc
... Show MoreThe research amid to find out the extent of Iraqi oil companies commitment to implement internal control procedures in accordance with the updated COSO framework. As the research problem was represented in the fact that many of the internal control procedures applied in the Iraqi oil companies are incompatible with most modern international frameworks for internal control, including the integrated COSO framework, issued by the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Tradeway Committee. The research followed the quantitative approach to handling and analysing data by designing a checklist to represent the research tool for collecting data. The study population was represented in the Iraqi oil companies, while the study sample
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to estimate the parameters and reliability function for kumaraswamy distribution of this two positive parameter (a,b > 0), which is a continuous probability that has many characterstics with the beta distribution with extra advantages.
The shape of the function for this distribution and the most important characterstics are explained and estimated the two parameter (a,b) and the reliability function for this distribution by using the maximum likelihood method (MLE) and Bayes methods. simulation experiments are conducts to explain the behaviour of the estimation methods for different sizes depending on the mean squared error criterion the results show that the Bayes is bet
... Show MoreBig data analysis has important applications in many areas such as sensor networks and connected healthcare. High volume and velocity of big data bring many challenges to data analysis. One possible solution is to summarize the data and provides a manageable data structure to hold a scalable summarization of data for efficient and effective analysis. This research extends our previous work on developing an effective technique to create, organize, access, and maintain summarization of big data and develops algorithms for Bayes classification and entropy discretization of large data sets using the multi-resolution data summarization structure. Bayes classification and data discretization play essential roles in many learning algorithms such a
... Show MoreIn this study, the mobile phone traces concern an ephemeral event which represents important densities of people. This research aims to study city pulse and human mobility evolution that would be arise during specific event (Armada festival), by modelling and simulating human mobility of the observed region, depending on CDRs (Call Detail Records) data. The most pivot questions of this research are: Why human mobility studied? What are the human life patterns in the observed region inside Rouen city during Armada festival? How life patterns and individuals' mobility could be extracted for this region from mobile DB (CDRs)? The radius of gyration parameter has been applied to elaborate human life patterns with regards to (work, off) days for
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