The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The city of Karbala is one of the most important holy places for visitors and pilgrims from the Islamic faith, especially through the Arabian visit, when crowds of millions gather to commemorate the martyrdom of Imam Hussein. Offering services and medical treatments during this time is very important, especially when the crowds head to their destination (the holy shrine of Imam Hussein (a.s)). In recent years, the Arba'in visit has witnessed an obvious growth in the number of participants. The biggest challenge is the health risks, and the preventive measures for both organizers and visitors. Researchers identified various challenges and factors to facilitating the Arba'in visit. The purpose of this research is to deal with the religious an
... Show MoreThe development of a future mechanism for sustainable development in Iraq to meet the current and future challenges requires an analysis of the indicators of sustainable development. This research aims at presenting and analyzing the social care aspect and highlighting the important role of taxes with a focus on social sustainable development to determine the extent and direction of changes. Level of progress, the researcher concludes the weakness of the financial allocations to the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs and in line with the large number of people who apply the conditions and controls, and recommends the researcher the necessity of participation of all segments of society between the public and private sector In terms of o
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He research specifies subjects which may contribute in improve productivity of the General Company for vegetable oil product/ Al-Farab factory and aims to release the relationship between system Quick Response Manufacturing (QRM) and scheduling operations.
The Implementation was in the general company for vegetable oil product (Al-Farab factory), Universe Factory It suffers from a failure to follow Scheduling in its operations And not taking into account the lead times And delays in product delivery dates, Here are drawing the attention of the administration in the factory to use Quick Response Manufacturing (QRM) to control the energy and inventory, machin
... Show MoreForty – two elderly hypothyroidism patients and forty – two apparently healthy as control groups , divided to (21) male (M) and (21) female (F) also (21) control male C(M) and (21) control female C(F) aged > 60 years, were tested for the presence of thyroid peroxidase autoantibody (TPo – Ab) and thyroglobulin auto antibody (Tg – Ab) , also for Se and Zn levels in their sera . The results revealed a significant increase in (TPO – Ab) and (Tg – Ab) for group (M) and (F) compared to control group , also a siginificant increase in TPo – Ab and Tg – Ab for (F) compared to (M) was found. A significant decrease in Se and Zn level for (M) and (F) compared to control group, while no significant difference between (M) and (F). In conc
... Show MoreBackground; paraphilias were studied in the sex
clinic, at Al-Rashad teaching mental hospital, in the
years 2009-2010, a subject never touched before in the
field of psychiatry in Iraq.
Aims of the study :
1-to identify the prevalence of types and number of
paraphilias in those patients.
2-to study the relationship of paraphilias with
sociodemographic factors of the patients.
Patients and methods; using the diagnostic criteria of
DSM IV TR, 52 patients from the outpatient sex clinic
at Al-Rashad mental hospital, collected and studied (41
males and 11 females).
Results; the ratio of men to women was 3.7 : 1, the
majority of our sample was in the age range of 21-30
years (36.35%), with a limited
I
In this study, optical fibers were designed and implemented as a chemical sensor based on surface plasmon resonance (SPR) to estimate the age of the oil used in electrical transformers. The study depends on the refractive indices of the oil. The sensor was created by embedding the center portion of the optical fiber in a resin block, followed by polishing, and tapering to create the optical fiber sensor. The tapering time was 50 min. The multi-mode optical fiber was coated with 60 nm thickness gold metal. The deposition length was 4 cm. The sensor's resonance wavelength was 415 nm. The primary sensor parameters were calculated, including sensitivity (6.25), signal-to-noise ratio (2.38), figure of merit (4.88), and accuracy (3.2)
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The government spending in Iraq and witnessed the changes and developments, especially after 2003, which outweighed consumer spending at the expense of capital expenditure and increased support and diversity of trends towards improving pension conditions for member
... Show MoreThe banks mobilize savings and channel them to the economy, whether commercial or Islamic banks and thus both contribute to increasing financial depth, the objective of this paper is to measure the contribution of the Islamic banks in increase financial depth in Iraq, and compared the role played by private commercial banks in contributing to increasing financial depth in Iraq. The paper has been applying the most used indicators of financial depth that used widely in the literatures, especially those applicable with the Iraqi economy.
The paper found via using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) that Islamic banks did not contribute to increasing financial depth in Iraq, as well as for the p
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The increasing of some traded Agricultural crops prices coincide with the increasing of crude oil prices in global market since the beginning of 21st century which indicate the possibility of short run and long run causality relation between the imported economic variables. The study aims to analysis the causality effects between some of Agricultural crops prices imported by Iraq and the prices of crude oil and Iraq dinar exchange rate in global markets for period (2004:1 -2016:4) theory for developing the adequate price and economic police for Iraqi economic sector. The results show the existence of short- run and long- run between the eco
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