The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The city of Karbala is one of the most important holy places for visitors and pilgrims from the Islamic faith, especially through the Arabian visit, when crowds of millions gather to commemorate the martyrdom of Imam Hussein. Offering services and medical treatments during this time is very important, especially when the crowds head to their destination (the holy shrine of Imam Hussein (a.s)). In recent years, the Arba'in visit has witnessed an obvious growth in the number of participants. The biggest challenge is the health risks, and the preventive measures for both organizers and visitors. Researchers identified various challenges and factors to facilitating the Arba'in visit. The purpose of this research is to deal with the religious an
... Show MorePorosity and permeability are the most difficult properties to determine in subsurface reservoir characterization. The difficulty of estimating them arising from the fact that porosity and permeability may vary significantly over the reservoir volume, and can only be sampled at well location. Secondly, the porosity values are commonly evaluated from the well log data, which are usually available from most wells in the reservoir, but permeability values, which are generally determined from core analysis, are not usually available. The aim of this study is: First, to develop correlations between the core and the well log data which can be used to estimate permeability in uncored wells, these correlations enable to estimate reservoir permeabil
... Show MoreEquation Boizil used to Oatae approximate value of bladder pressure for 25 healthy people compared with Amqas the Alrotinahh ways used an indirect the catheter Bashaddam and found this method is cheap and harmless and easy
In this research, we present a nonparametric approach for the estimation of a copula density using different kernel density methods. Different functions were used: Gaussian, Gumbel, Clayton, and Frank copula, and through various simulation experiments we generated the standard bivariate normal distribution at samples sizes (50, 100, 250 and 500), in both high and low dependency. Different kernel methods were used to estimate the probability density function of the copula with marginal of this bivariate distribution: Mirror – Reflection (MR), Beta Kernel (BK) and transformation kernel (KD) method, then a comparison was carried out between the three methods with all the experiments using the integrated mean squared error. Furthermore, some
... Show Moreيقترح هذا البحث طريقة جديدة لتقدير دالة كثافة الرابطة باستخدام تحليل المويجات كطريقة لامعلمية، من أجل الحصول على نتائج أكثر دقة وخالية من مشكلة تاثيرات الحدود التي تعاني منها طرائق التقدير اللامعلمية. اذ تعد طريقة المويجات طريقة اوتماتيكية للتعامل مع تاثيرات الحدود وذلك لانها لا تأخذ بنظر الاعتبار إذا كانت السلسلة الزمنية مستقرة او غير مستقرة. ولتقدير دالة كثافة الرابطة تم استعمال المحاكاة لتوليد البي
... Show MoreThis current research deals with the "The role of organizational change in the achievement of strategic success" Who are getting increased attention to being one of the important topics and relatively new, And which have a significant impact on the future of the organization So there is a need for this research, which aims to identify the role of organizational change across dimensions (technology, organizational structure, human resources, organizational culture) in the strategic success through its components (a specific strategy, effective implementation, innovation, customer satisfaction)، And that by two main hypotheses, branched about eight hypothes
... Show MoreIn this paper, a relationship between the liquid limit and the coefficient of consolidation of Iraqi soils are studied. The samples of soil used in study are undisturbed silty clay. These samples are taken from different locations and depths of Middle and South of Iraq by cooperation with Consulting Engineering Bureau- University of Baghdad- College of Engineering. The depth reached about 20 meters. The experimental work is made to calculate the liquid limit and the coefficient of consolidation. From these sites, 280 points are obtained. The relationship between the liquid limit and the coefficient of consolidation is drawn as a curve. This curve is studied and compared with the curve that obtained from other studies. From these curves, it
... Show MoreBio-diesel is an attractive fuel fordiesel engines. The feedstock for bio-diesel production is usually vegetable oil, waste cooking oil, or animal fats. This work provides an overview concerning bio-diesel production. Also, this work focuses on the commercial production of biodiesel. The objective is to study the influence of these parameters on the yield of produced. The biodiesel production affecting by many parameters such s alcohol ratio (5%, 10%,15 %, 20%,25%,30%35% vol.), catalyst loading (5,10,15,20,25) g,temperature (45,50,55,60,65,70,75)°C,reaction time (0-6) h, mixing rate (400-1000) rpm. the maximum bio-diesel production yield (95%) was obtained using 20% methanol ratio and 15g biocatalyst at 60°C.