The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
In this paper, a relationship between the liquid limit and the coefficient of consolidation of Iraqi soils are studied. The samples of soil used in study are undisturbed silty clay. These samples are taken from different locations and depths of Middle and South of Iraq by cooperation with Consulting Engineering Bureau- University of Baghdad- College of Engineering. The depth reached about 20 meters. The experimental work is made to calculate the liquid limit and the coefficient of consolidation. From these sites, 280 points are obtained. The relationship between the liquid limit and the coefficient of consolidation is drawn as a curve. This curve is studied and compared with the curve that obtained from other studies. From these curves, it
... Show MoreA study of taxonomic quality of soil algae was conducted with some environmental variables in three sites of local gardens (Kadhimiya, Adhamiya and Dora) within the governorate of Baghdad for the period from October 2016 to March 2017. The study identified 28 species belonging to 16 species in which the predominance of blue green algae (18 species) Followed by Bacillarophyta algae (7 species) and three types of Chlorophyta. The study showed an increase in species of Oscillatoria. The results showed no significant differences between sites in temperature, pH and relative humidity, while there were clear differences between sites for salinity and nutrient The study showed a difference of irrigation water quality and use of different fertilize
... Show MoreThe study of Lake Hamrin is of enormous importance in understanding changes in water levels and their impact on the local environment. It helps to clarify the role of climatic and human factors in the decline of its water resources from 2013 to 2023 in order to ensure sustainable solutions. Satellite imagery from Landsat 8 is used, and processing is performed using ArcGIS Pro and ENVI. The normalized vegetation index (NDVI) is applied to show the changes in the vegetation cover and reveal the amount of change in the surface water area of the lake. It is noted that the water area changes in one year as it increases in the rainy season and decreases in the summer, and it also varies from one year to another with the difference in the amount o
... Show MoreSustainable human development means meeting the basic needs of society and striving for continuous improvement in quality, as it seeks to increase economic well-being while providing adequate housing and nutrition, as well as providing electricity, water, health and education services . Ten centuries ago, Islam highlighted the importance of the development effort and the necessity of its sustainability before the West took it in the 1970s. There are a number of challenges that greatly affect the reality of achieving and ensuring Millennium Development Goals. The research recommends the importance of fighting administrative and financial corruption, as this is one of the biggest challenges facing the possibility of advancing the economy and
... Show MoreThe sediments of the Hartha Formation were deposited during the Upper Campanian- Maastrichtian cycle. Due to the importance of this sequence in terms of stratification and economics in the oil industry, it has been focused on in this study. The present study includes three oil fields in central of Iraq within the Mesopotaminan Zone, East Baghdad, Balad and Kifl oil fields. This study was accomplished by describing 190 thin sections and interpreting the response of the available well logging data. Seven major microfacies were diagnosed in the Hartha succession at studied oil fields, they are; Orbitoidal wackestone - packstone, Orbitoidal and miliolids wackestone, Rotaliidae and Siderolites with echinodermata wackestone - packstone,
... Show MoreThe region of Kirkuk and its surrounding areas, including (Baba, Jambour, Qara Chuq, Qaiyarah, Demir Dagh, Bai Hassan, Taq Taq, Makhul, Gilabat as well as southern Mosul and the cities of Erbil and Sulymania, are known as one of the oldest discovered oil fields in northern Iraq. This area presents a significant opportunity for further organic geochemical analysis to describe maturation zones and estimate economically generated hydrocarbons with particular reference to the Sargelu formation, to enhance hydrocarbons productivity. To assess the potential of these oil fields, it is essential to perform correlation, comparisons, and geochemical analyses of the data collected from exploration wells in the surrounding area. This appro
... Show MoreUrsolic acid (UA, 3 ?-hydroxy-urs-12-en-28-oic acid) are isomeric triterpenic acids. The high quantities of pentacyclic triterpenoids in Scabiosa species seems to be obvious and there is an evidence that most of pentacyclic triterpenoids that have been isolated are saponins. This is one of the most important characteristic of the genus Scabiosa, the main aglycones are ursolic acid and oleanolic acid. In the current study, isolation from the aerial part and roots of Scabiosa palaestina L. was performed using Preparative HPLC. Furthermore, detection and quantitation of ursolic acid was performed by high performance thin layer chromatography (HPTLC). The identification of isolated triterpenoid involves two methods including FT-IR coupl
... Show MoreReflect the sustainable development of the interaction of three key elements are the economic component and the social component and the environmental component while focusing economic component to achieve economic growth and focuses social element to achieve social justice in the distribution of income and achieve prosperity, the environmental component related fields and including emphasizes the protection of the environment and to ensure the continuation and sustainability of resources physical, biological and form in which it believes the interaction required for development process real and effective and sustainable, and is considered the province of Kurdistan Iraq of important areas where the movement of developmental mount
... Show MoreThe problem of job burnout has become one of the main problems for researchers in social welfare organizations (social protection bodies) - one of the formations of the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs. Its negative effects increased in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in light of the Corona pandemic, the pressures and burdens of workers varied, which resulted in high rates of anxiety, tension, and intellectual and physical exhaustion, and then negatively affected their efficiency in performing work at the individual and organizational level, especially after the increasing tasks of these Bodies in carrying out their role in achieving the general goals and objectives as beingThe general goals are that they are responsible for providi
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