Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
Maxim Gorky’s Mother is one of the most important literary genre in social realism, in which he depicts female characters with revolutionary fervor and enthusiasm, projecting his social ideologies and dreams. Though the novel unique importance lies in the fact that it has been thoroughly analyzed by many writers, historians and sociologists, there are almost no studies devoted to the role of women out of a Marxist and feminist point of view. The present paper sheds light on the Russian woman‘s important role in overcoming all adversity and gain her position on Social Realism.
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Green biosynthesized selenium nanoparticles from
Praise be to Allah, the Lord of the Worlds, the best prayer and the best prayer, on our master Muhammad, and on his pure God, and his companions and the faithful, and who followed them by charity to the day of religion. This relationship between emphasis, is a sincere, and this harmony, such as the relationship between water, and the green, but it is good, but, with greenery, it is better, and as well as alone, is a beautiful view, but the most beautiful, with the most beautiful. From here he was starting on myself in writing the fundamentalist research of jurisprudence, to show the depth of this interconnection. The doctrine as a new term, then the taj al-Din al-Suobki came after three centuries, and a
... Show MoreThe reaction of methyldopa with o-vanillin in refluxing ethanol afforded Schiff base and characterized through physical analysis with a number of spectra also the study of biological activity. The geometry of the Schiff base was identified through using (C.H.N) analysis, Mass, 1H-NMR, FT-IR, UV-Vis spectroscopy. Metal complexes of Cr3+, Mn2+, Co2+, Ni2+, Cu2+, Zn2+, Cd2+ and Hg2+ with Schiff base have been prepared in the molar ratio 2:1 (Metal:L), (L = Schiff base ligand) except Hg2+ at molar ratio 1:1 (Hg:L). The prepared complexes were characterized by using Mass, FT-IR and UV-Vis spectral studies, on other than magnetic properties and flame atomic absorption, conductivity measurements. According to the results a dinuclear octahe
... Show MoreThe reaction of methyldopa with o-vanillin in refluxing ethanol afforded Schiff base and characterized through physical analysis with a number of spectra also the study of biological activity. The geometry of the Schiff base was identified through using (C.H.N) analysis, Mass, 1H-NMR, FT-IR, UV-Vis spectroscopy. Metal complexes of Cr3+, Mn2+, Co2+, Ni2+, Cu2+, Zn2+, Cd2+ and Hg2+ with Schiff base have been prepared in the molar ratio 2:1 (Metal:L), (L = Schiff base ligand) except Hg2+ at molar ratio 1:1 (Hg:L). The prepared complexes were characterized by using Mass, FT-IR and UV-Vis spectral studies, on other than magnetic properties and flame atomic absorption, conductivity measurements. According to the results a dinuclear octahedral geo
... Show MoreThrough this article, we studied the peristaltic motion of “Hyperbolic Tangent” fluid in the geometry of curvature channel by using the analysis of large wavelength and less of Reynolds number. The matter has controlled mathematically by the partial differential equations of continuity, motion, heat transfer. In the study, we used the impact of radial magnetic force. The obtained coupled non-linear equations of above equations have solved by an approximation technical. Locked formula solutions of the stream function, axial velocity, heat function has evaluated. The influence of curvature is analysed and took it into account. The impact of sundry variables on the inflow features ha
The aim of the research is to identify an appropriate training method that raises the levels of immune globulins (IgA, IgM, IgG) and white blood cells and the effect of training by (HIT) method using resistance (weights) as a training curriculum that increases immunity and ensures the continuation of the pills after the return of activity from the stone The response to the Covid-19 epidemic among amateur weightlifters, the researchers relied on the method of trace analysis in an experimental way by conducting a pre-, medial and post-test with the same experimental one agroup on a sample of amateur weightlifters in the Fury private hall for weightlifting and body building in Adhamiya, the number of sample members reached (15 players) who int
... Show MoreThe aim of this research is to identify the extent to which the Conventional and Islamic banks are committed to implement the requirements of the corporate governance in its financial reports. In addition to its commitment to transparency and clarity in dealing with the shareholders and stockholders to protect their interests and to determine the impact of the commitment of the corporate governance on assessing the financial performance of the conventional and Islamic banks that participate in Bahrain Stock Exchange.