Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
Las diferencias entre el pretérito perfecto simple y el imperfecto son uno de los temas más complejos de la lengua española, no sólo para el estudiante, sino para el profesor, puesto que sistematizar los casos y hacerlos fácilmente comprensibles al alumno es tarea difícil. Los profesores de lengua, cuyas investigaciones han dado lugar a una serie de teorías y de corrientes metodológicas y didácticas que permiten enfocar la enseñanza de una lengua extranjera de manera muy distinta a como se hacía tradicionalmente. Vamos a repasar muy brevemente cuáles son estas teorías.
En primer lugar es necesario señalar en qué consiste el aprendizaje de una segunda lengua:
"El aprendizaje de una segunda lengua (L2) es el
... Show MoreWater pollution is widely regarded as one of the most pressing global challenges, exacerbated by human progress in industrial, agricultural, and technological sectors. Wastewater often contains non-biodegradable heavy metals that accumulate in living organisms. This accumulation poses significant risks to both environmental ecosystems and human health. The structures and surface morphology were characterized by FTIR, UV-vis measurements, XRD, SEM, and AFM. TiO2 nanoparticles could remove heavy metal ions (Pb2+, Cd2+, and Cr3+) from two samples (laboratory samples and real samples from Babylon battery factory in Al-Waziriya, Baghdad/Iraq) and measured by AAS. The results indicated that the removal percentages of heavy metal ions by T
... Show MoreThis study aimed identify the teachers of sociology. In the development of creative thinking. I have students in middle school .llvra literary. In schools. Second Karkh From the perspective of the teachers and the students themselves numbered (41), a teacher and a school. As The study population encompassed of some students the fourth and fifth preparatory stage in the Karkh II schools, totaling 200 male and female students. As the study sample were consisted of (7) and a teacher (34) and accented (85) of male students (115) were female student The researcher the questionnaire which consisted of (39) items And to achieve the objectives of the study it was ascertained sincerity And stability. And
... Show MoreThe article analyzes the neologisms that arose in the Iraqi dialect after the 2003 US-British invasion and the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, according to the theory I advocate: "The Basic Outline of Reference," a developed theory of Arab legacy and cognitive theory, which came out in 1987 in America, so we have used the terminology of cognitive grammar. In this theory it is stated that the reference is the interaction between four components: perception, imagination, imaginative comprehension and the linguistic sign or symbolization (the neological word in this article), which are closely related, so that none of them can be lacking, because they constitute a holistic whole that belongs to a deeper level. Let us
... Show MoreThe important factor in the success of construction projects is its ability to objective estimate of the cost of the project and adapt to the changes of the external environment, which is affected by a lot of elements and the requirements of the competitive environment. The faces of those projects are several problems in order to achieve particular goals. To overcome these difficulties has been the development of research in the last two decades and turn the focus on the role of the cost of project management, by providing information and assist management in planning and control of the budget among the main elements of the project, namely, (time-cost-quality),The research aims at the possibility of developing and implementing mechanisms
... Show MoreIn addition to being a religious book with high human and moral themes, Nahj al-Balagha is considered a mirror of Arab culture and a literary masterpiece at the height of eloquence and eloquence, and because proverbs in the form of short, concrete and understandable phrases for everyone, experiences, thoughts and convey ideas, Imam Ali (AS) used it to facilitate the understanding of various political, social and moral concepts. In this article, we intend to criticize the way Dashti, Shahidi and Foladvand translated it by using Newmark's model due to the importance and cultural reflections of proverbs in understanding the cultural atmosphere governing Nahj al-Balagheh. In his evaluation model, Newmark divides cult
... Show MoreJean-Paul Sartre and Badr Shakir al-Sayyabe are among the most prominent writers that critiqued the destructive role of capitalism and the patriarchal power system in the period of the Post-World War II crisis. Divided into three chapters, the present study examines two of the most eminent literary works in the history of the Western and Eastern societies in the fifties of the last decade: Jean Paul Sartre’s play : The Respectful Prostitute and Badr Shaker al-Sayyabe’s poem: The Blind Prostitute.
Chapter one discusses the position of the prostitute in a patriarchal societies. Chapter two linguistically analy
... Show MoreThis study seeks to address the impact of marketing knowledge dimensions (product, price, promotion, distribution) on the organizational performance in relation to a number of variables which are (efficiency, effectiveness, market share, customer satisfaction), and seeks to reveal the role of marketing knowledge in organizational performance.
In order to achieve the objective of the study the researcher has adopted a hypothetical model that reflects the logical relationships between the variables of the study. In order to reveal the nature of these relationships, several hypotheses have been presented as tentative solutions and this study seeks to verify the validity of these hypotheses.
... Show MoreAbstract
This paper tackles the theme of alienation as being a concurrent state of human being from birth to death; so extensive is the description of this state by writers. Alienation has been a product of their hard experiences and miserable lives. One such writer is Jean-Marie Gustave le Clézio who was so perfect in describing alienation in his works. Upon so many occasions, he imagined one or more of his characters as living in a chaotic world and so lived safely in alienation. The novel "Le Procès-Verbal" is one of the most important of his works. This paper deals with e the narrative structure of novel while shedding light on the hero's alienation: its essence and causes.
... Show MoreThis research deals with the frameworks and mechanisms of international press coverage of the issue of foreign interference in the formation of the Iraqi government in the Saudi newspapers Asharq Al-Awsat and Kayhan Al-Arabi Iran and how this topic was addressed in the two newspapers. The frameworks for international press coverage of external interference in the formation of the Iraqi government. ”This research is one of the descriptive research that adopted the survey method، which made it possible to use the content analysis tool to analyze
the content of the two newspapers، whose numbers are (624) from the
newspapers (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat Al-Saudi Arabia and Kayhan Al-Arabi Iran) from (1/1/2018 to 31/12/2018)، and the researc