Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The present study deals with the story of Epidemic in two literary works issued in the same year (1947). One of them is a novel titled "Plague" written by the French writer Alber Kamo, the second is a poem of the Iraqi poetess Nazik Al-Malaekah. The research reflects a contrastive study of the war vision in the two works as both writers used science to serve literature by using Epidemic as a metaphor to refer to the dangers that the societies faced.
The problem of the present research lies in answering the question about the reason that makes the two writers use metaphor while narrating the issues of the society instead of mentioning them directly and illuminate what implications do the narrative style of Epidemic story have and
... Show MoreThe study aims at knowing the actual uses of instructional technology in teaching history subject in the colleges of education for humanities from the college staff members' perspectives and their attitudes towards it. The sample of the study consisted of (24) instructors from the Colleges of Education for the Humanities, the College of Basic Education- Haditha and the College of Education for Women, the study used the descriptive method, and the questionnaire was consisted of (50) items, and the psychometric properties of the instrument of the study were extracted. The researchers used the appropriate statistical means to analyze the data, and the results of the study showed the following: the teaching staff attitudes towards the use of
... Show MoreIn this paper solar radiation was studied over a region of Baghdad (Latitude 33.3o and longitude 44.4o). The two parts of global solar radiation: diffuse and direct solar radiation were estimated depending on the clearance index of measured data (Average Monthly mean global solar radiation). Metrological data of measured (average monthly mean diffuse and direct solar radiation) were used to comparison the results and show the agreement between them. Results are determined by applying Liu and Jordan two models (1960). Excel 2007program is used in calculation, graphics and comparison the results.
In a world of fierce competition companies of different activities strive to strengthen their competitiveness in order to be able to deliver greater value to their customers and gain a distinct sites in competition with other companies in the market at the local and international levels. Every company seeks to focus on one or more of the competitive capabilities in order to turn it into an obvious advantage or a number of competitive advantages to contribute in improving the performance and superiority over its competitors. Therefore, the management of companies no longer need only useful information for the internal aspects of the environment, but also need to include the external environment that includes various and constantly changin
... Show MoreThe banking industry, as a result of the great challenges it faced, required continuous development of the principles of management, control and mechanisms used. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has played a leading role in legalizing many of these developments and has been able to contribute significantly to establishing a common framework for banking supervision, The central role in the various countries of the world is based on coordination between the various regulatory authorities and thinking about finding mechanisms to confront the risks faced by banks, recognizing the importance of the banking sector in the stability of domestic and international banking systems or the danger of this sector in the emergence of F
... Show MoreThe current research deals with the dialectical relationship resulting from the conflict in the violent combination and construction of the living ( the actor)and the dead (the item) in the structure of the Sinography construction and the emergence of the theatrical play space , which can be summed up by the following question: what is the nature of the dialectical relationship between the living (the actor) and the dead( the item) in the Sinography creation, which limited the research in a central objective : to identify the controversy of the living (actor) and the dead (item) in the performance unit of the theatrical scene . The research, in its objective limits set forth in its methodological framework, analyzes this controversy in o
... Show MoreThe Muslim woman actively participated in narrating, preserving, controlling and maintaining the hadith, along with her brother, the man who later became an inexhaustible representative of the effort to preserve, control, and narrate the Sunnah. Undoubtedly, the mothers of the believers, may God be pleased with them, had a great advantage in communicating Islam and spreading the Sunnah of the Prophet Especially among women, all of them heard from him, may God’s prayers and peace be upon him, and lived with him in the details of his life on the disparity between them in memorizing and narrating and publishing them. It narrated (378) recently, and it is considered the second narrator after the mother of the believers Aisha, may God be pl
... Show MoreEstablishing the systemic character of vocabulary, its relationship with other language systems, their interdependence creates the possibility of a comprehensive scientific study and description of the lexical system of each language, as well as contrastive comparative studies of several languages, including their phraseological composition.
It is known that not all words-components of phraseological units are equivalent in their role in the formation of the semantic content of phraseological units. In this regard, it is necessary to introduce the concept of a lexical dominant. To this we include words, which are kind of centers around which the entire semantic complex of phraseological units, the entire set of its words-componen
... Show Moreيتعرض قانون الموازنة العامة الاتحادية للطعن بعدم الدستورية كغيره من القوانين، بل أن الطعن فيه يكاد يكون سنوياً حال نشره في الجريدة الرسمية ، وتوجه إليه المطاعن بعدم الدستورية إما عن إجراءات تشريعه أو لمضامينه المتعارضة مع الدستور نصاً أو روحاً ، ولكنّه إذا كانت مدة الطعن بعدم دستورية القوانين كافة متاحة دون قيد زمني محدد ولا تتطلب سوى إجراءات إقامة الدعوى العامة وأخصها قيام شرط المصلحة في حالة الدعوى ال
... Show MoreFour samples of the Se55S20Sb15Sn10 alloy were prepared using the melting point method. Samples B, C and D were irradiated with (6.04×1010, 12.08×1010 and 18.12×1010 (n.cm-2s -1 ) of thermal neutron beam from a neutron source (241Am-9Be) respectively, while sample A was left not irradiated. The electrical properties were assessed both before and after the radiation. All irradiated and non-irradiated samples show three conduction mechanisms, at low temperatures, electrical conductivity is achieved by electron hopping between local states near the Fermi level. At intermediate temperatures, conduction occurs by the jumping of electrons between local states at band tails. At high temperatures, electrons transfer between extended stat
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