Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
Deposits with the Industrial Bank, together with loans received from others, are non-financial financial resources, which are sources of supply to the Industrial Bank of funds that allow the Bank to expand the granting of loans. The increases in this resource indicates that the bank is practicing comprehensive banking, which is consistent with the nature of the transformation of the banking system towards multiple businesses. Therefore, the research comes to highlight the causality of the trend between total deposits and total loans. And if the causality is found, is it one-way or two-way? How long is the impact?
This research sheds light on the morphological structure of nouns and verbs in the novel "ASTONISHMENT" by the novelist Aharon Applefield by analysing selected models from the novel in a morphological analysis in order to identify the most important morphological features of this structure according to a statistical analytical approach.
The morphological structure is the main pillar of the linguistic structure of the literary text. Morphology is the science that studies the word, by which its structure and original letters are known, and the change that has occurred to it. The aesthetics of the fictional text is reflected in this structure, through which the writer conveys his ideas and narrations to the reader. The research
... Show MoreThis study measures the indicators of social and environmental performance of the contents of the administration's prepared reports on its social and environmental performance by comparing the actual performance with the indicators set within the standards of the Global Reports Initiative (GRI), In preparing this research, the researchers relied on studying the criteria of the Global Reporting Initiative, which aims to achieve a high level of performance disclosure under sustainability, In light of contemporary global trends towards achieving sustainable development and its disclosure and the orientations of economic institutions and units in different countries towards emphasizing the extent of commitment during practicing its a
... Show MoreRepresent choices Behaviorism available to the Managerial leaders one of the prerequisites to run any beginnings of a psychological or dilemmas Managerial barriers to working in the field of work has been varied these options until it had taken several kinds of which contributed to the left different impacts on the alleviation of these problems, which prompted the researcher to raising the problem of study within the framework of questionable content how to contribute to that shown by Choices Behaviorism accredited to the Managerial leaders in the management of frustration
... Show MoreObjectives: Successful endodontic treatment outcome requires effective shaping and cleaning of root canals. This study aims to evaluate the smear layer removal after continuous chelation (CC) ) NaOCL\HEDP( and sequential chelation (SC) )NaOCL\EDTA( and their influence on the push-out bond strength (POBS) of Bio-C sealer. Materials and Methods: Palatal roots of the maxillary first molar (n=72) were divided into four groups (n=18) as follows: 3% NaOCL, SC: 3% NaOCL followed by 17% EDTA, CC: 3% NaOCL \9% HEDP and Distilled water. Thirty-two roots (n=8/group) were split longitudinally for smear layer evaluation using SEM. Forty roots were obturated with Guttapercha and Bio-C sealer using a single cone technique. Thre
... Show MoreMotives: This study examines the integration of Feng Shui principles into urban public spaces to enhance social interaction, livability, and environmental harmony. The case study focuses on the Al-Arabi and Al-Washash neighbourhoods in Baghdad, exploring how spatial characteristics influence engagement and energy circulation (Qi) within the urban network. The motivation arises from deficiencies in connectivity, shading, greenery, and water features, which limit social and aesthetic vibrancy. Aim: The objectives are to evaluate spatial and social dynamics through the Feng Shui Public-Space Index (FS-PSI), Space Syntax analysis, and resident surveys, and to propose strategies using Feng Shui design proxies to improve energy flow, acce
... Show MoreAbstract:
The aim of the present research is to evaluate the child’s nutritional
method (2-5 years old) which is based on his resistance of the food highly rich
with nutritional elements and his acceptance of the food of a low nutritional
value in addition to his having forbidden food with other mates and making
use of all mates when having food, in establishing the sound social values and
affection since child hood. The required statistical equation have been used
by the researcher namely (Z test).
The sample of the present study consists of (26) children who were selected
intentionally and randomly from the kindergartens of Al-Bayaa region and the
college of Education for women. The questionnaires were d
The research aimed to prepare a measure of the importance of enlightenment, academic education, and applied skills for third-stage female students, including teaching methods from their point of view/College of Education and Sports Sciences/University of Baghdad/Al-Jadriyah. The researchers used descriptive description in the comprehensive research procedures, an appropriate methodology in achieving the research objectives, sufficient for interpretations, how important is the academic teacher’s knowledge of teaching methods for student learning, what are the roles that the learners have acquired from the academic teacher. The scale of importance and horror consists of 15 items. The research population includes female students of t
... Show MoreThe 1500m race event is part of the athletics system, and the continuous competition to break records and achieve the highest levels of achievement in athletics events, especially the 1500m race event, is one of the topics that occupies the minds of many people interested in achieving digital development for this event, given the distance of the race and the time it takes to complete it. Because it is unique from other events, it has characteristics that distinguish it from other events, despite it being a middle-distance event, which shares with them that its speed is measured by the step, which consists of the length of the step and its frequency. Increasing any of these two factors while keeping one of them constant or increasing
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