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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 22 2025
Journal Name
اكليل للدراسات الانسانية
Topic review article Britain and Iraq's book The Economic Status of Iraq during the era of the British administration 1914-1921 by Dr. Hussein Ali Falih Al-Khazraji
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: Summary Iraq suffered under the British administration during the First World War and its entry into an occupation of economic backwardness, and this economic backwardness was linked to the phenomenon of linking Iraq economically to the capitalist world by keeping it as a source of raw materials and a market for capitalist goods, and that the occupation authorities controlled Iraq's economic goods and wealth and mocked them to serve its interests and achieve their political and economic goals that it drew before the war.

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Publication Date
Sat May 30 2026
Journal Name
Enterpreneurship Journal For Finance And Business
The role of psychological ownerships' dimensions in deterring the effects of toxic leadership: Analytical research in some companies at the Ministry of Industry and Minerals in Iraq
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Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The search for Sanctity and Divine Love « The Narrow Door » Andre Gide: À la recherche de la sainteté et de l’amour céleste dans « La porte étroite » d’André Gide.
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The theme of love has been and still is the interest of authors and writers for it is closely related to people’s lives. That great passion has helped them express genuine thoughts pertinent to that theme that has given rise to many debates, some are vague and others controversial. In his (strait is the gate), (La Porte étroite), André Gide has sought to shed light on his characters perspective of love and its relationship with sacredness and divine happiness. Indeed these characters have found often themselves restrained, chained and exhausted, by tough religious commands that have imposed on them spiritual commitments and duties too hard to break.

André Gide has revealed a protestant deviation from the perfection theme tha

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
International Journal Of Supply Chain Management
The effect of internal training and auditing of auditors on supply chain management: An empirical study in listed companies of Iraqi stock exchange for the period 2012-2015
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Scopus
Publication Date
Mon Dec 28 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Variables (Bias-cut) of Tailoring and their Effect on the Quality of Fitting the Standard Pattern for Large-Shaped Iraqi Ladies: رشا علي صالح , بشرى فاضل صالح التميمي
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The present research is descriptive and analytical by nature; it practically presents the method of implementing the standard pattern in an unconventional way using the bias-cut line. The study aims at investigating the variables of bias-cut and their suitability for fitting large-shaped Iraqi ladies. It also aims at exploring the artistic and innovative features of the bias-cut. Therefore, one needs to understand the rules and basics of clothing and the nature of the body to reach the maximum degree of control.Consequently, the study is to answer the following questions: What is the effectiveness of tailoring on the bias-cut in fitting a standard template of a large-shaped Iraqi ladies? Is it possible to obtain from the offered possibil

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Innovation, Creativity And Change (ijicc)
The relationship between conceptual knowledge and procedural knowledge among students of the mathematics department at the faculty of education for pure sciences/IBn Al-Haitham, university of Baghdad
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Scopus
Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Degree of Availability of Moral Values in the Arabic Language Textbook (Al-Mu’nes) For Grades Eleven and Twelve For Post-Basic Education in The Sultanate of Oman
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          The current study aimed to reveal the moral values available in the Arabic language textbook (Al-Mu’nes) for   grades eleven and twelve for post-basic education in the Sultanate of Oman. The researcher adopted the descriptive approach using the sentence as measuring unit in the analysis process. The five fields of moral values and their subcategories values represented the categories of the analysis. Iterations of values and the percentages of iteration were calculated in those textbooks. Moreover and the analysis and stability of the process were confirmed.

         After referring to previous studies, it was possible to de

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 07 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of KWL Strategy on the Achievement of the Students of the fourth class literary in the subject of History and the Development of Cognitive Thinking skills
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Whereas conventional methods of teaching history do not meet the sometimes purpose has suggested some educators strategies modern help to improve the level of students in the education process through activating prior knowledge and employed in positions of current learning, and focus attention on the points and the outstanding elements of the content and practice techniques Calendar criticof ideas and meanings and mental and linguistic activities used to verify the extent of reaching understanding.                                       &n

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Publication Date
Sat May 30 2026
Journal Name
College Of Basic Education Researches Journal
Identify the effect of exercise of the arm is the practice in the development of accurate performance skill transmission (short and long) arm of practice for students badminton
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2024
Journal Name
Energy Storage
Comprehensive Study of <scp>PAN</scp>‐<scp>NaBF<sub>4</sub></scp> Solid Polymer Electrolytes: Insights Into Optical, Structural, Thermal, Electrical, and Electrochemical Properties for Sodium‐Ion Batteries
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ABSTRACT<p>This research explores the use of solid polymer electrolytes (SPEs) as a conductive medium for sodium ions in sodium‐ion batteries, presenting a possible alternative to traditional lithium‐ion battery technology. The researchers prepare SPEs with varying molecular weight ratios of polyacrylonitrile (PAN) and sodium tetrafluoroborate (NaBF<sub>4</sub>) using a solution casting method with dimethyl formamide as the solvent. Through optical absorbance measurements, we identified the PAN:NaBF<sub>4</sub> (80:20) SPE composition as having the lowest energy band gap value (4.48 eV). This composition also exhibits high thermal stability based on thermogravimetric analysis results. </p> ... Show More
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