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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 30 2016
Journal Name
International Business Management
ESTIMATE OF THE MULTIPLIER EFFECT OF THE MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY ON NON-OIL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN THE IRAQI ECONOMY FOR THE PERIOD OF 1990-2014
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The monetary policy is a vital method used in implementing monetary stability through: the management of income and adjustment of the price (monetary targets) in order to promote stability and growth of real output (non-cash goals); the tool of interest rate and direct investment guides or movement towards the desired destination; and supervisory instruments of monetary policy in both quantitative and qualitative. The latter is very important as a standard compass to investigate the purposes of the movement monetary policy in the economy. The public and businesses were given monetary policy signals by those tools. In fiscal policy, there are specific techniques to follow to do the spending and collection of revenue. This is done in order to

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Impact of Business Process Reengineering in the institutional performance : Research in the office of the General Inspector in the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research
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Abstract

       This research is aimed at indicating the impact of business process reengineering on corporate performance in the Office of the Inspector General of the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research of the Iraqi study has identified a problem in a number of the most important questions - what the impact of the Business Process Reengineering at the corporate office performance indicators respondent? What are the actual results of the analysis of paths Administrative Process Engineering and Corporate Performance respondent in the office? In order to achieve the goal of the research and answer the questions of the problem, the study applied to a sample of

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 17 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Lawyers’ Use of the Website of the Supreme Judicial Council and the Gratifications Obtained from It Drawn Research Submitted for the Study of the Higher Professional Diploma
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The field study of this paper focused on the motives for lawyers to use the website
of the Supreme Judicial Council, and the gratifications achieved as a result of its use.
This study sought to achieve a number of goals, including:
1. Monitoring the patterns of lawyers’ use of the website of the Supreme Judicial Council.
2. Determining the forms that lawyers use to interact on the website of the Supreme
Judicial Council.
This study is a descriptive in kind as the researcher relied on the ‘survey method’ in
its study of the external audience (lawyers) using the questionnaire and scale toolThe questionnaire was distributed among a deliberately chosen sample, consisting of
(160) lawyers who used the website of

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The effect of the strategy of asking clustered questions on the acquisition and retention of the general Arabic language subject among students of the College of Languages
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An experiment in the semester, the second semester of the academic year (2022-2023), and the data used was not processed (the second test for two independent, inaccurate samples, the Bermon correlation coefficient, and the Spearman correlation coefficient), and the following results were reached: There is a statistically significant difference at the level of ( 0) average, 05) between the third grade who studied the plan for asking cluster questions, and between the average of those who studied the special feature according to the traditional method of selecting achievement, and enjoyed completing the specialization, choosing the experimental group, because the strategy of asking cluster questions is one of the externalities that... Lear

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of some short-term debt instruments on the money supply and its effect on the production of wheat crop in Iraq during the period (1990_2018).
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The research aims to show the effect of some short-term debt instruments (central treasury transfers, cash credit granted to the government by commercial banks) on the production of the wheat crop in Iraq, through its effect on money supply during the period (1990-2018), As the study includes two models according to the statistical program (Eviews9), the first model included measuring the effect of short-term debt instruments on money supply, and the second measuring the extent of the money supply's impact on Wheat crop production, as the results of the standard analysis showed that the short-term debt instruments used in the model were Significant effect on wheat crop production indirectly through its effect on money supply, As

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Procedia Economics And Finance
The Mediating Role of Knowledge Sharing on Relationship between IT Capability and IT Support as Predictors of Innovation Performance: An Empirical Study on Mobile Companies in Iraq
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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Dalton Transactions
Mangiferin functionalized radioactive gold nanoparticles (MGF-<sup>198</sup>AuNPs) in prostate tumor therapy: green nanotechnology for production, in vivo tumor retention and evaluation of therapeutic efficacy
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We report here an innovative feature of green nanotechnology-focused work showing that mangiferin—a glucose functionalized xanthonoid, found in abundance in mango peels—serves dual roles of chemical reduction and in situ encapsulation, to produce gold nanoparticles with optimum in vivo stability and tumor specific characteristics. The interaction of mangiferin with a Au-198 gold precursor affords MGF-198AuNPs as the beta emissions of Au-198 provide unique advantages for tumor therapy while gamma rays are used for the quantitative estimation of gold within the tumors and various organs. The laminin receptor specificity of mangiferin affords specific accumulation of therapeutic payloads of this new therapeutic agent within prostate tumors

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
EFFECT OF INJECTED DIFFERENT CONCENTRATIONS OF ALCOHOLIC EXTRACT OF Moringa oleifera LEAVES POWDER IN HATCHING EGGS OF ADVANCED AGE OF BROILER BREEDERS ON PRODUCTIVE PERFORMANCE AND CARCASSES OF BROILER CHICKENS: EFFECT OF INJECTED DIFFERENT CONCENTRATIONS OF ALCOHOLIC EXTRACT OF Moringa oleifera LEAVES POWDER IN HATCHING EGGS OF ADVANCED AGE OF BROILER BREEDERS ON PRODUCTIVE PERFORMANCE AND CARCASSES OF BROILER CHICKENS
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This experiment was conducted to study the effect of injecting hatching eggs into a flock of broiler aged mothers with different concentrations of the alcoholic extract of Moringa oleifera powder on productive performance of broilers during the period of rearing of 35 days. The study included two experiments for a period at 2/10/2021 to 28/11/2021, where eggs were injected into the Mustafa Poultry Hatchery/ Wasit Governorate- Aziziyah District. A 400 hatching eggs of 308 Ross  mothers of modern broilers used at age  of 48  week, eggs of average weight  66 ± 1 g/egg were collected in same day then stored for two days. A quarter of treatments were randomly distributed with 100 eggs for each treatment.

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Difficulties toward third level students in the department of Arabic language for both Education for Women College and Ibn Rushd/University of Baghdad for the studying of Arabic language curriculum: Difficulties toward third level students in the department of Arabic language for both Education for Women College and Ibn Rushd/University of Baghdad for the studying of Arabic language curriculum
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Abstract
The curriculum is amodern science which reflects the social philosophy and
what it needs . It searches for amothod that limits the knowledge that the
indiridual gets in the society and the sorts of the culture that suits the enrironment
in which they live. It also clears for them their history and their great in heritance.
It has a great in flunce in their mental growth ,and it teacher the students new
roles in the thin king ,and training then on what they have learned . According to
there points the problem concentrats on the mostimpotant difficulties which facer
thestudents in studing Arabic langnage text-books
In spite of the great care that the text taker but it is full of subjects and studies
w

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Impact of supervisory control requirements on the financial performance of Islamic banks in Iraq: Case Study: Islamic Cooperation Bank for Investment and Development for the years (2015-2018)
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Given the importance that the Iraqi banking system in general and Islamic banks in particular, there must be effective supervisory oversight of these banks, as supervisory oversight has an essential and effective role in the development and evaluation of the performance of banks, through the application of legal controls and rules. Banking aimed at making sure that its financial centers are safe, protecting depositors' funds, and achieving both monetary and economic stability. This research studied and evaluates the mechanisms and tools used by the Central Bank of Iraq in the supervision and supervision of these banks. Therefore, the research aimed to measure the type and direction of the relationship between the requirements of supervis

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