Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
For a long time, the intensification of profit represented a major goal for the company management ,but this goal confirmed a series of restrictions such the constriction on short period, the time rather than on long and medium strategic goal, the relationships with customers ,the supplies, employees , This goal is replaced by another one (intensification of the company's value) ,and the fortune of the share holders itself ,for the purpose of creating value, the company must generate great outcomes to cover the operating expense and to insure the a suitable compensation to the invested capital (the market value added) is the indication used to estimate the company ability to create value –added the development
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to measure the length between the variable the efficiency of the tax examiner with its dimensions represented by (scientific questions, practical process (experience), training and development, impartiality and independence, ethics of the profession) and the approved variable discovering the artificial adaptation of profits, and the degree of arrangement of those dimensions its importance and priority, and the research problem has been identified In a main question that is there any effect of copying the images of the image examiner in discovering the adaptation, the financial statements and reports of the companies (X, Y) and the banks (A, B) were relied on in the interpretation of the results, t
... Show MoreThe exercise of citizenship behaviors and their impact on customer loyalty (An analytical study from the perspective of workers in the National Insurance Company).
The Research aims to find out the degree of customers National Insurance company for customer citizenship behavior and its impact on the level oh loyalty from the perspective of employess in the company, as well as the statement of the differences in the answers of employees according to their personality traits. To achieve the goals of research has been the use of the questionnaire as a tool for the collection and distribution of data on a sample of (90) individuals, as was the use of statistical program (SPSS) in the process of statistical analysis methods (mean, sta
... Show MorePure cadmium oxide films (CdO) and doped with zinc were prepared at different atomic ratios using a pulsed laser deposition technique using an ND-YAG laser from the targets of the pressed powder capsules. X-ray diffraction measurements showed a cubic-shaped of CdO structure. Another phase appeared, especially in high percentages of zinc, corresponding to the hexagonal structure of zinc. The degree of crystallinity, as well as the crystal size, increased with the increase of the zinc ratio for the used targets. The atomic force microscopy measurements showed that increasing the dopant percentage leads to an increase in the size of the nanoparticles, the particle size distribution was irregular and wide, in addition, to increase the surfac
... Show MoreThe interactive websites are the interaction between the product and the user, and interactive design is based on the user interface for communication and how the interface responds to the user and how to help him to achieve his goals and enjoy the use of the interface. The interactive design is based on the design of interactive programs, i.e., programs that directly interact with the user, taking into account the different culture of the audience, the age group and many other factors. An example for the use of the user interface: Web designs, smartphone application designs and it even includes computer operating systems and electronic game interface. The interaction is the communication between the source and the receiver. The we
... Show MoreThe research addresses the questioning of political loads in a cinematic model from the films of the author (David Abdel Sayed), who has been busy throughout his films in criticizing political power, where he presented protests visions her body the artistic composition of cinematic means of expression through artistic treatments that facilitate the representations of modernity in contemporary cinematic trends, and by this Several contemporary cinematic criticism is an example of a thinker cinematographer who presents his critical thesis on power politics through the composition of the film (material - form - expression). The research consisted of four chapters. The first was a methodological framework that included the research problem o
... Show MoreThe field of graphic design has witnessed a unique, unique form transformed in its construction and installation and superior to systems through its creation of foundational data for design ideas with functional aesthetics and utilitarianism and effective and moving formulation in light of modern trends and what globalization has brought about in terms of openness to the outside world and the processes of communication and communication with the international community through graphic design. Based on the above, this study marked (Aesthetics of the Design Idea and its Communication Role in the Graphic Outcome) comes to clarify the topic through three chapters, including the first chapter, which was devoted to the research methodology, th
... Show MoreThis study explored the use of industrial acidic crude palm oil (ACPO) for biodiesel production, facing a significant obstacle due to its high free fatty acid (FFA) content, which complicates the biodiesel production process. Typically, esterification is employed to convert FFAs into fatty acid methyl ester (FAME). Herein, the effectiveness of tungstosilicic acid hydrate (TSAH) as an unsupported heteropoly acid (HPA) catalyst for FFA esterification in ACPO was investigated. The FFA content was reduced from 8.43% to 0.95% under optimum conditions (4 wt% catalyst dosage, a methanol to oil molar ratio of 10:1, 150 min and a temperature of 60°C). Noteworthy, the TSAH catalyst showed stability over 7
The research focuses on addressing one of the most important concepts of modern management that deal with the relationship between government institutions and stakeholders, Which now occupies a special significance in trends modern management, a concept of corporate governance it takes the internal mechanisms due to its key role and is important in the process of corporate governance and looking for building Effective mechanisms for this concept in light of laws and regulations that are available in the local environment and on the functioning of government institutions, Search has been applied in the Federal Board of Supreme Audit of Iraq (BSA) due to its particular importance as an institution control and as a awaits the societ
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