Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The yellow scale insect
Introduction and Aim: Klebsiella pneumoniae is a Gram-negative bacterium responsible for a wide range of infections, including respiratory tract infections (RTIs). This research was aimed to study the antibacterial and anti-biofilm effect of AgNPs produced by Gram positive and negative bacteria on RTIs associated with K. pneumoniae. Materials and Methods: The biofilm formation of K. pneumoniae was determined by tube method qualitatively from select bacterial species characterized by UV-Visible spectroscopy. The antibacterial susceptibility of the bacteria AgNPs was tested for their antibacterial and antibiofilm activity on a clinical isolate of K. pneumoniae. Results: K. pneumoniae isolated from RTIs were strong biofilm prod
... Show MoreThe research aims to determine the impact of employees’ retention strategy on organizational memory. This research is historical, descriptive, and analytical. The sample consists of 158 faculty members in five private colleges in Baghdad. The technique used to analyze the data is SEM (Structural Equation Modeling), and SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences). The research concludes that the employees retaining strategy plays a vital role in retaining employees and hence maintains organizational memory. The findings and recommendations of this research assure the administrations of private colleges that employees retention strategy play a vital role in retaining its employee and hence maintains organizational memory. T
... Show MoreThe exercise of activities and sports are of great importance to public health and to maintain the ideal health weight as well as the psychological and mental comfort of humans. The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and participation of educated females in physical activities at the University of Baghdad hall for the years 2011-2016, and to show the factors that influence women's contribution to physical activities at the university by selecting 100 students of males and 100 females' students randomly. During the questioning questions and statistical analysis of the questioning to find out the reasons for the discouraging contribution of the women to the various physical activities and try to find solutions and r
... Show MoreThe research aims to how to deal with certain situation to ensure the continuous competitive excellence of business market under the situation of covid-19, especially how to deal with major challenges, identifying the capabilities of tourism industry, investigating the ability of tourism agencies to resist the dynamic change of both internal as well as external environment to ensure their sustainability.
The important here as the paper notice, is how to be efficient and trying to find solutions in order to grow and survive through choosing certain strategies that aligned the critical issues.
Thus to achieve this level, many scenarios planed that could adopt in case of such pande
... Show MoreWith the increase in competition between insurance companies in addition to the increasing numbers in the number of insurance companies, whose number decreased to (32) private companies until the end of the year (2020). The blue ocean at the level and its effects on increasing the market share. Therefore, the two researchers tested the hypothesis and the research concluded that there is a relationship A .Also the researcher put some recommendations the most prominent is that the invention is considered one of the successful strategies an d the company has to encourage the employees according to inventive thoughts
In this work, the preparation of new multidentate Schiff-base lig and and its metal complexes are described. The formation of the lig and{ 2,2`((5-methyl-1,3-phenylene)-bis-(oxy))-bis-N`(E`)-2- hydroxybenzylideneacetohydrazide}[H2L] was prepared from the reaction {2,2-((5-methyl-1,3-phenylene)-bis-(oxy))- di-(acetohydrazide)}[M]precursor and salicylaldehyde in a 1:2 mole ratio, respectively. The reaction of the lig and [H2L] with (Cr+3 , Mn+2 and Fe+2 )metal ions in a 1:2 (L:M) mole ratio. Ligand and complexes were characterised via spectroscopic analyses; [FT-IR, UV-Vis spectroscopy,(C.H.N) microanalysis, chloride content, thermal analysis(TG), electrospray mass, magnetic susceptibility and conductivity measurements. The characterisation d
... Show MoreResults showed high efficiency of the predator Chrysoperla carnea (Stephens) to attack and consume nymphal instars and adults of cabbage aphid, Brevicoryne brassicae (L.).The total average of the nymphal instars consumed by the larval stage of predator were 308.67, 285.9, 198.77, 154.7 for 1st ,2nd ,3rd ,4th nymphal instars respectively .While it was 110,107.9 for apterae and alatae respectively . Also, predation efficiency increases with the progress of the larval instars up to the third (last) which was the most voracious .The 1st instar nymph consumed by the larvae of the predator were 47,80,181.67 nymphs ,with predation rate of 14.71% , 23.75% and 50.13% for 1st ,2nd and 3rd larval instars