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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2025
Journal Name
International Journal Of Physiology, Sports And Physical Education
The effect of compound exercises supported by information technology (GPS Ubiko and Polar verity senses) on the development of endurance in football players
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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Samples of Al Samarqandi’s Selection in some of Washing Laws and the touch of the Grecians Quran in his book (The scholars’ Masterpiece)
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The Research is interested in the detailed comparative study of certain selection of
Imam Alsamarqandi in some subjects of washing and touching the Gracious Quran.
The value of this study is that it is related to one aspect of the duties obliged on Muslim
like parity.
The study has tried to collect certain scholars’ opinions of eight doctrines with the
selection of Alsamarqandi to make a comp arson between them and to show how
Alsamarqandi is able to create legal laws from his sources to lead the researchers nto have
knowledge about the syllabi of the famous scientists.
Finally we ask God to bless to what is right and to accept this study and make it part of
our good deeds, Ameen.

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of Internal Audit Standards IIA`s in improving the local guideline and its reflection on the efficiency of internal audit performance
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The function of internal auditing has become an important function that aims at achieving objectives that are compatible with these developments and changes that have occurred in many countries in the world, which required the emergence of professional associations and institutes in the profession of internal auditing. Improve the guideline of the internal audit units issued by the Federal Audit Bureau to enhance the efficiency of internal audit performance in Iraqi government units. The researchers adopted the statistical method of proving the hypothesis by constructing a questionnaire that included three main axes: supporting the senior management in adopting the current guide, and the second being the importance of improving t

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2011
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Studying the Effect of Addition Particles of Alumina (Al2O3) and Zirconia (ZrO2), on Some Mechanical Properties for Matrix Composites (Al-Si-Mg) Alloy
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This study is concerned with the effect of adding two kinds of ceramic materials on the mechanical properties of (Al-7%Si- 0.3%Mg) alloy, which are zirconia with particle size (20μm > P.S ≥ 0.1μm) and alumina with particle size (20μm > P.S ≥ 0.1μm) and adding them to the alloy with weight ratios (0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8 and 1%). Stirring casting method has been used to make composite material by using vortex technique which is used to pull the particles to inside the melted metals and distributed them homogenously.

After that solution treatment was done to the samples at (520ºC) and artificial ageing at (170ºC) in different times, it has been noticed that the values of hardness is increased with the aging time of the o

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Evaluation the Effect of Velocity and Temperature on the Corrosion Rate of Crude Oil Pipeline in the Presence of CO2/H2S Dissolved Gases
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In this paper investigate the influences of dissolved CO2/H2S gases, crude oil velocity and temperature on the rate of corrosion of crude oil transmission pipelines of Maysan oil fields southern Iraq. The Potentiostatic corrosion test technique was conducted into two types of carbon steel pipeline (materials API 5L X60 and API 5L X80). The computer software ECE electronic corrosion engineer was used to predict the influences of CO2 partial pressure, the composition of crude oil, flow velocity of crude oil and percentage of material elements of carbon steel on the rate of corrosion. As a result, the carbon steel API 5L X80 indicates good and appropriate resistance to corrosion compared to carbon steel API

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 11 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Characterization of thermo-physical and hardness properties of unsaturated polyester resin hybrid nano composites Sihama Issa Salih1, Waleed Bdaiwi Salih2, Husam Sakin Hamad2
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In this work, two groups of nanocomposite material, was prepared from unsaturated polyester resin (UPE), they were prepared by hand lay-up method. The first group was consisting of (UPE) reinforced with individually (ZrO2) nanoparticles with particle size (47.23nm). The second group consists of (UPE) reinforced with hybrid nanoparticles consisting of zirconium oxide and yttrium oxide (70% ZrO2 + 30% Y2O3) with particles size (83.98nm). This study includes the effect of selected volume fraction (0.5%, 1%, 1.5%, 2%, 2.5%, 3%) for both reinforcement nano materials. Experimental investigation was carried out by analyzing the thermo-physical properties like thermal conductivity, thermal diffusivity and specific heat for the polymeric composit

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Identifying factors affecting the productivity of nursing service empirical research in Batool Teaching Hospital and the Hospital public of Baquba in Diyala province
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This research aims to measure the productivity of nursing services and recognize the reality of providing such services in some public hospitals in the province of Diyala, as well as identify the most important factors affecting the productivity of nursing services, and developer measure adopted by the researcher (Kien, 2012), which includes seven factors (workforce , management team, stimulation, pressure of working hours (time), material / equipment, supervision, safety), Used the experimental method in the search, one of the private scientific research curriculum depends primarily on the scientific experiment and study of the subject, or a scientific phenomenon, which provides an opportunity to learn the facts

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 15 2023
Journal Name
Bionatura
Study of the Effect of Diabetes Mellitus I on Bone Mineral Density of Upper and Lower Limbs by Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry
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Background: Bone mineral density (BMD) has been assessed using Dual-Energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA). This procedure is considered to be of vital importance in assessing the general condition of individuals concerning their skeletal mineralization. BMD is measured according to the results of the DEXA examination of the vertebral column and pelvis. Although diabetes mellitus (D.M.)is known to affect BMD, the information regarding this relationship is not currently particularly clear. Objective: This study concentrates on the point that the assessment of BMD for the vertebral column is insuffi-cient to give a realistic and correct picture of the mineralization of the remaining part of the skeleton. Besides, this study elicited a gen

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 19 2015
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Significance of the Folk Symbols and Their Influence on The National Identity (Chosen samples from the Contemporary Iraqi Pottery): زينب كاظم صالح
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The contemporary art culture is considered a resultant of preceding human civilizations from the early days. At the same time, it got closer to the local privacy, because the contemporary Iraqi potter worked hard to create new art, refusing to base his art on the early works, creating art pieces that contains properties to inherited art and their form significance, in order to create a new identity of his own, bringing an empowerment to his deepened civilization, with the goal to create national identity ideas from one hand, and entity and locality from another. Europeans also followed the direction of our civilization, such as (Picasso, Henry Moore, Barbra Hurth, Brankouzi, Hans Arp,..etc). From this point of view comes the importance o

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Oncology And Radiotherapy
The role of Modulation Complexity Score (MCS) of the VMAT and IMRT techniques in the treatment planning of left non-small lung cancer
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Background: Lung cancer is a common disease for patients over the age of 50 years, especially males due to smoking habits. This study aimed to compare the modulation complexity score (MCS) for the advanced treatment planning techniques which the intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Materials and Methods: Thirty patients who had non-small lung cancerous tumors on their left side participated in this study. The range ages were 68 to 98 years, the heights were between 151 and 182cm and they having weights from 46 to 79 kg. For Each patient will create two plans dial using two different techniques, which will be Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) and Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy

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