Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
Background: Dental implants provide a unique treatment modality for the replacement of lost dentition .This is accomplished by the insertion of relatively inert material (a biomaterial) into the soft and hard tissue of the jaws, there by providing support and retention for dental prostheses. Low level laser therapy (LLLT) is an effective tool used to prompt bone repair and modeling post surgery; this has referred to the biostimulation effect of LLLT. The aims of this study were to evaluate the immmunohistochemical expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and transforming growth factor -beta (TGF-β) in experimental and control groups with mechanical test. Materials and Methods: Thirty two adult New Zealand white rabbits use
... Show MoreThe main focus of research is on how to achieve the internal and external dimensions of corporate social responsibility through human resources management strategies, which is a major of research aimed. The main problem of this research was confirmed, which confirms that there is an unclear role for social responsibility, lack of human resources management strategies, and ambiguity of roles in the municipality under study. The diagnose of the problem and determining the gap between the internal and external dimensions of social responsibility and human resources management was identified, which attacked the researcher's attention to navigate in this subject, look for the reasons for the gaps and try to reduce them. The case study
... Show MoreBackground: There is a strong desire of adolescent to have a peer group and to be appreciated and also to become a member of this group which can affect one each other. There for; encourage, adapting,and imitating of friends and group consider as the main reasons behind starting of smoking among youngsters. Smoking habits in the family were found tobe acause of smoking pressure among adolescentas peer pressure. Smoking habit may be started before 18 years of age in most adult smokers.
Objectives: To study the effect of peer pressure and family smoking habiton the prevalence of smoking among secondary school students.
Type of the study: A cross
... Show MoreA histological study showed the wall of the stomach in Pica pica and Herpestes javanicus consists of four layers: mucosa, submucosa, muscularis externa and serosa. Also, the present study showed many differences in the histological structures of the stomach for each in both types. The stomach of P. pica consists of two portions: the proventiculus and gizzard, while the stomach of H. javanicus consists of three portions: cardiac, fundic and pyloric regions. The mucosa layer formed short gastric folds, named plicae. In the proventiculus of P. pica, sulcus is found between each two plicae, but the folds called gastric pits in the gizzard, which are full with koilin. Lamina properia in both types contained gastric g
... Show MoreThe process of transformation from the central economy to a free economy requires restructuring the economy according to a new economic philosophy that relies on activating the role of private economic activity in which private and medium-sized institutions occupy an essential axis for their active role in the economies of all countries, especially those countries that have directed towards the market mechanism and sector leadership. The special process of economic development and the role that commercial banks can play in advancing the financing of these projects by establishing specialized business incubators for financing.
What encouraged countries to pay attention to these institutions is the ease of
... Show MoreSince the introduction of the HTTP/3, research has focused on evaluating its influences on the existing adaptive streaming over HTTP (HAS). Among these research, due to irrelevant transport protocols, the cross-protocol unfairness between the HAS over HTTP/3 (HAS/3) and HAS over HTTP/2 (HAS/2) has caught considerable attention. It has been found that the HAS/3 clients tend to request higher bitrates than the HAS/2 clients because the transport QUIC obtains higher bandwidth for its HAS/3 clients than the TCP for its HAS/2 clients. As the problem originates from the transport layer, it is likely that the server-based unfairness solutions can help the clients overcome such a problem. Therefore, in this paper, an experimental study of the se
... Show MoreThis paper studies the investment project evaluation under the condition of uncertainty. Evaluation of investment project under risk and uncertainty is possible to be carried out through application of various methods and techniques. The best known methods are : Risk-adjusted discount rate , certainty equivalent method , Sensitivity analysis and Simulation method The objective of this study is using the sensitivity analysis in evaluation Glass Bottles project in Anbar province under the condition of risk and uncertainty.
After applying sensitivity analysis we found that the glass bottles project sensitive to the following factors (cash flow, the cost of investment, and the pro
... Show MoreResveratrol, (RES), a phytoalexin, is well-known for its anti-inflammatory and anti-oxidant properties. SEB, a superantigen, is known to trigger ALI and cause mortality. In the current study, we tested the effect of RES in a dual-dose model of SEB exposure that triggers ALI and causes 100% mortality in C3H/HeJ-mice. The data revealed RES attenuated SEB-induced ALI and prevented mortality. Forty eight hours post-SEB exposure, lung-infiltrating mononuclear cells were tested for microRNA expression profile to determine the epigenetic regulation by resveratrol. SEB-activated splenocytes were pre-treated with 50 μM of RES or vehicle for metabolic profile analysis by measuring oxygen consu
The effect of short range correlations on the inelastic longitudinal Coulomb form
factors for the lowest four excited 2+ states in 18O is analyzed. This effect (which
depends on the correlation parameter β) is inserted into the ground state charge
density distribution through the Jastrow type correlation function. The single particle
harmonic oscillator wave function is used with an oscillator size parameter b. The
parameters β and b are, considered as free parameters, adjusted for each excited state
separately so as to reproduce the experimental root mean square charge radius of
18O. The model space of 18O does not contribute to the transition charge density. As
a result, the inelastic Coulomb form factor of 18