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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of electronic trading and central filing in the performance of the Iraq Stock Exchange for the period (2008-2018)
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The rapid development of information technology and its use in all areas has had a positive impact on all areas, and financial markets have had a share of this development through the use of an electronic trading system to settle transactions, enhance transparency and disclosure in all activities of these markets and revitalize their performance.

The reason for choosing this topic is that it is a very important topic for what modern technology addresses in trading operations in financial markets. It is worth noting that these innovations have eliminated the need for direct contact with people, but through the Internet and telephone networks, and the new technology has reduced the costs of building systems

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 30 2024
Journal Name
Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi Fen-edebiyat Fakültesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi
French Language in Iraq: Study of the Relationship between University Education and Social Activities (The Case of the University of Baghdad)
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Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi Fen-Edebiyat Fakültesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi | Volume: 48 Issue: 2

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 01 2025
Journal Name
Russian Journal Of General Chemistry
Synthesis, Antibacterial Activity, and Molecular Docking Study of Some New Azo Derivatives Based on 2(4-Aminophenyl)-5-Substituted 1,3,4-Oxadiazole
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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2021
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Ecology
Effect of sedimentary source on the properties of sphericity and roundness of feldspar minerals in some soils of the alluvial plain
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This study was conducted on the effect of the sedimentary source (the sediments coming from both the Iraqi-Iranian borderline and the Tigris river) on the optical and textural features, especially sphericity and roundness of feldspar minerals (potassium and plagioclase types) in soils of the southern part of the alluvial plain. Eight pedons were selected to represent the study area, five of them represented sediments coming from the borderline, which included pedons of (Badra, Taj Al-Din, Al-Shihabi, Jassan, and Galati), while two of them represent the sediments of the Tigris River (Essaouira, Al-Dabouni), the pedon of Ali Al-Gharbi was represented the mixing area of sediments of all the floods coming from the borderline and the sediments o

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 28 2025
Journal Name
مجلة علوم الرياضة
Building and codifying the Icelandic scale for coaches from the perspective of the aspirations of the Iraqi Premier League volleyball clubs
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The research aims: to build a measure of the cognitive competence of coaches from the point of view of players of Iraqi Premier League volleyball clubs and extract scores and standard levels for it. In order to achieve the objectives of the research, the descriptive method was used using the survey method. As for the research sample, it was chosen intentionally, and was represented by volleyball players for the Premier League 2024-2025. The sample was divided into exploratory, constructive, and standardizing, and starting the construction procedures, which included finding the scientific foundations for the scale, in addition to extracting the modified standard score and levels for the sample of the main experiment for standardization. Amou

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 31 2023
Journal Name
Oncology And Radiotherapy
The Effect of Green Low Laser (LLL) on the white blood cells on platelet on people on brain and prostate cancer
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The effect of Low-Level Laser (LLL) provided by green semiconductor laser with an emission wavelength of 532 nm on of human blood of people with brain and prostate cancer has been investigated. The effect of LLL on white blood cell (WBC), NEUT, LYMPH and MONO have been considered. Platelet count (PLT) has also been considered in this work. 2 ml of blood sample were irradiating by a green laser of the dose of 4.8 J/cm2. The results suggest a potential effect of LLL on WBC, PLT, NEUT, LYMPH, and MONO of people with brain and prostate cancer Key words: white blood cell , platelet , low-level laser therapy

Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The effect of (SWOM) strategy on acquiring the psychological concepts of educational psychology course and its retention among education college students
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The current study aims to investigate the effect of (SWOM) strategy on acquiring the psychological concepts of educational psychology course and its retention among education college students. To do this, a sample of (57) male and female student were intentionally selected from first grade, Kurdish department / college of education / Ibin Rushd of human sciences. The sample distributed on two classes, whereby the experimental group consisted of (28) student were taught according to the (SWOM) strategy while the control group made up of (29) student were taught based on the tradition method. The two researchers designed a scale included (50) item to measure students' achievement. The experiment lasted for ten weeks, SPSS was used

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 01 2019
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
The Role of Sewage Irrigation Management in Water Productivity, Growth and Yield Parameters of Broccoli in Al-Sulaimani government/Kurdistan region
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Abstract<p>The objective of the present work was to estimate water requirements and water use efficiency for Broccoli under normal irrigation conditions and sewage irrigation. Field experiment was carried out during the season 2018 at station/Sulaimni agricultural station/Bakrajo –College of Agricultural Sciences. The experiment included three treatments: River water irrigation in all season growth (I<sub>1</sub>), Sewage water irrigation in all season growth (I<sub>2</sub>), Alternate irrigation (one river irrigation followed by two sewage water irrigation) in all season growth (I<sub>3</sub>). The experimental Design was Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) w</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Dec 05 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis, Identification, Theoretical Study, and Effect of the New Heterocyclic System from Ciprofloxacin Derivatives on the Activity of Some Liver Enzymes
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The target of this study was to synthesize several new Ciprofloxacin drug analogs by providing a nucleophilic substitution procedure that provides new functionality at the carboxylic group location. The analogs were synthesized, designed, and characterized by 1HNMR, and FTIR. The synthetic path began from the reaction of ciprofloxacin drug with morpholine to give compound[B], ciprofloxacin derivative was linked with a variety of primary and secondary amines to give compounds[B1-B9]. The above-mentioned prepared compounds [B3 and B5] were applied to liver enzymes, and the increase in the activity of these enzymes was observed. In addition, a theoretical study was conducted to study the energies and properties of the prepared compounds.

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 27 2026
Journal Name
Medicine
Fc-gamma receptors type3A (rs396991) genotyping for predicting infliximab efficacy and immunogenicity in ulcerative colitis: An observational study of Iraqi cohort
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Anti-tumor necrosis factor treatments for inflammatory bowel disease face challenges like primary nonresponse and secondary loss of response, often due to antidrug antibodies that increase drug clearance. The Fc-gamma receptors type3A (FCGR3A) (rs396991) polymorphism affects infliximab pharmacokinetics and immunogenicity. This study investigates its influence on trough levels, anti-infliximab antibody development, and clinical outcomes in Iraqi ulcerative colitis (UC) patients. This single-center study involved patients on maintenance infliximab therapy who were enrolled. Serum infliximab trough levels and anti-infliximab antibodies (antibodies to infliximab) (free and total) were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Genotyping

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