Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The rapid development of information technology and its use in all areas has had a positive impact on all areas, and financial markets have had a share of this development through the use of an electronic trading system to settle transactions, enhance transparency and disclosure in all activities of these markets and revitalize their performance.
The reason for choosing this topic is that it is a very important topic for what modern technology addresses in trading operations in financial markets. It is worth noting that these innovations have eliminated the need for direct contact with people, but through the Internet and telephone networks, and the new technology has reduced the costs of building systems
... Show MoreCumhuriyet Üniversitesi Fen-Edebiyat Fakültesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi | Volume: 48 Issue: 2
This study was conducted on the effect of the sedimentary source (the sediments coming from both the Iraqi-Iranian borderline and the Tigris river) on the optical and textural features, especially sphericity and roundness of feldspar minerals (potassium and plagioclase types) in soils of the southern part of the alluvial plain. Eight pedons were selected to represent the study area, five of them represented sediments coming from the borderline, which included pedons of (Badra, Taj Al-Din, Al-Shihabi, Jassan, and Galati), while two of them represent the sediments of the Tigris River (Essaouira, Al-Dabouni), the pedon of Ali Al-Gharbi was represented the mixing area of sediments of all the floods coming from the borderline and the sediments o
... Show MoreThe research aims: to build a measure of the cognitive competence of coaches from the point of view of players of Iraqi Premier League volleyball clubs and extract scores and standard levels for it. In order to achieve the objectives of the research, the descriptive method was used using the survey method. As for the research sample, it was chosen intentionally, and was represented by volleyball players for the Premier League 2024-2025. The sample was divided into exploratory, constructive, and standardizing, and starting the construction procedures, which included finding the scientific foundations for the scale, in addition to extracting the modified standard score and levels for the sample of the main experiment for standardization. Amou
... Show MoreThe effect of Low-Level Laser (LLL) provided by green semiconductor laser with an emission wavelength of 532 nm on of human blood of people with brain and prostate cancer has been investigated. The effect of LLL on white blood cell (WBC), NEUT, LYMPH and MONO have been considered. Platelet count (PLT) has also been considered in this work. 2 ml of blood sample were irradiating by a green laser of the dose of 4.8 J/cm2. The results suggest a potential effect of LLL on WBC, PLT, NEUT, LYMPH, and MONO of people with brain and prostate cancer Key words: white blood cell , platelet , low-level laser therapy
The current study aims to investigate the effect of (SWOM) strategy on acquiring the psychological concepts of educational psychology course and its retention among education college students. To do this, a sample of (57) male and female student were intentionally selected from first grade, Kurdish department / college of education / Ibin Rushd of human sciences. The sample distributed on two classes, whereby the experimental group consisted of (28) student were taught according to the (SWOM) strategy while the control group made up of (29) student were taught based on the tradition method. The two researchers designed a scale included (50) item to measure students' achievement. The experiment lasted for ten weeks, SPSS was used
... Show MoreThe objective of the present work was to estimate water requirements and water use efficiency for Broccoli under normal irrigation conditions and sewage irrigation. Field experiment was carried out during the season 2018 at station/Sulaimni agricultural station/Bakrajo –College of Agricultural Sciences. The experiment included three treatments: River water irrigation in all season growth (I1), Sewage water irrigation in all season growth (I2), Alternate irrigation (one river irrigation followed by two sewage water irrigation) in all season growth (I3). The experimental Design was Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) w
The target of this study was to synthesize several new Ciprofloxacin drug analogs by providing a nucleophilic substitution procedure that provides new functionality at the carboxylic group location. The analogs were synthesized, designed, and characterized by 1HNMR, and FTIR. The synthetic path began from the reaction of ciprofloxacin drug with morpholine to give compound[B], ciprofloxacin derivative was linked with a variety of primary and secondary amines to give compounds[B1-B9]. The above-mentioned prepared compounds [B3 and B5] were applied to liver enzymes, and the increase in the activity of these enzymes was observed. In addition, a theoretical study was conducted to study the energies and properties of the prepared compounds.
Anti-tumor necrosis factor treatments for inflammatory bowel disease face challenges like primary nonresponse and secondary loss of response, often due to antidrug antibodies that increase drug clearance. The Fc-gamma receptors type3A (FCGR3A) (rs396991) polymorphism affects infliximab pharmacokinetics and immunogenicity. This study investigates its influence on trough levels, anti-infliximab antibody development, and clinical outcomes in Iraqi ulcerative colitis (UC) patients. This single-center study involved patients on maintenance infliximab therapy who were enrolled. Serum infliximab trough levels and anti-infliximab antibodies (antibodies to infliximab) (free and total) were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Genotyping
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