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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Plant Archives
Effect of two harrowing systems on decomposition of organic matter, some soil properties, growth and productivity of sunflower (helianthus annuus l.)
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Scopus
Publication Date
Fri Jan 22 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural & Statistical Sciences
EFFECT OF GROWING MEDIA, NUTRIENT SOLUTION AND CONTROL OF FLOWERING ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF THE CUCUMBER CULTIVATED BY THE SOILLESS CULTURE.
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Publication Date
Sun Jun 05 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Prevalence of Tonsillitis caused by Streptococcus spp. Among children and the effect of some Lactic acid bacterial (LAB) strain on it
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In this study 100 samples were collected from infected children with acute and chronic tonsillitis who attended to Al-Yarmook Teaching Hospital (ENT consultation clinic) from 5/12/2013 to 1/3/2014. The result of laboratory culture was positive in 67 samples. Depending on their cultural, morphological and biochemical characterization of bacterial isolate of them were identified as (37.31%) belonged to Streptococcus pyogenes and the diagnosis is confirmed by the use of Remel Rapid STR System, (34.32%) belonged to S.parasanguinis, (11.94%) S.mitis, (11.94%) S.oralis and (4.47%) S.thoraltensis . Results confirmed that cup assay gave highest inhibition zone after 24 hrs compare with well diffusion methods for suspension of L.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 17 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
The optical text in the cinema film Between the presence and absence Play for free mark: حسام الدين محمد عبد المنعم
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The light-based life in the universe, including the human derived concepts and meanings of the fear of darkness and evil, comfort and goodness of light, became constitute bilateral haunted man to this day in various concepts of life.Therefore reflect the light form artistic aesthetic in visual arts such arts Fine Photography and the other until the emergence of art cinema, as the use of lighting in cinema has produced high-energy in the composition of its values expressive and symbolic, where it became dark and light are the space visually moving the vehicles media kit for many within the work structure artwork. The research is divided into five chapters, the first chapter (the methodological framework) that included an introduction the

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 03 2020
Journal Name
Dissertation
An Economic And Environmental Analysis of the most Factors Affecting of Sustainable Agricultural Development In Iraq Through The Period 2000 -2017
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Publication Date
Fri Aug 12 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Research In Medical And Dental Science
Effects of Ozonated Water on Micro Leakage between Enamel and Fissure Sealants Prepared by Different Etching Technique (An in vitro Study)
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Effects of Ozonated Water on Micro Leakage between Enamel and Fissure Sealants Prepared by Different Etching Technique (An in vitro Study), Baraa M Jabar*, Muna S Khalaf

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 09 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Ovonic Research
The effects of CuO doping on structural, electrical and optical properties of CdO thin films deposited by pulsed laser deposition technique
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Thin films of (CdO)x (CuO)1-x (where x = 0.0, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5) were prepared by the pulsed laser deposition. The CuO addition caused an increase in diffraction peaks intensity at (111) and a decrease in diffraction peaks intensity at (200). As CuO content increases, the band gap increases to a maximum of 3.51 eV, maximum resistivity of 8.251x 104 Ω.cm with mobility of 199.5 cm2 / V.s, when x= 0.5. The results show that the conductivity is ntype when x value was changed in the range (0 to 0.4) but further addition of CuO converted the samples to p-type.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 15 2026
Journal Name
Modern Sport
The reality of technological leadership in youth and sports directorates in the southern region from the point of view of employees
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Publication Date
Mon Jun 15 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The validity of salivary microRNAs (hsa-miR-200a, hsa-miR-125a and hsa- miR-93) as oral squamous cell carcinoma biomarker
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Background: Oral squamous cell carcinoma represents the vast majority of oral cancer it is a common malignant tumor with an increasing incidence. Around the world, the 5 year mortality rate of oral cancer is about 50%. Thus novel biomarkers for early detection oral squamous cell carcinoma are needed. The level of three salivary microRNAs namely hsa-miR-200a, hsa-miR-125a and hsa- miR-93 were measured in saliva of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma and compared their levels in saliva of healthy control subjects to determine their potential as oral cancer biomarker. Materials and methods: The level of these three microRNAs was measured by using revers transcription, preamplification and quantitative PCR. Results: Only miR-200a presen

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 07 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The effect of different doses levels of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) on the kidney and liver in Albino male Rat. Histopathological study
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Objective: In this study ,the effects of silver nanoparticles (Ag NPs)were investigated on the liver and kidney tissues. Methodology: The produced nanoparticles have an average particle size of about 30 nm. Eighteen male albino rats were used by dividing them into three groups, each group comprise 6 rats. First group(control group) given food and water like other groups by liberty. Second group was tail injected by (AgNPs) at dose of (0.4 mg/kg. body weight/day). Third group was injected by (AgNPs) at dose of (0.6 mg/kg. body weight/day) for 15 days. All animals were sacrified at the end of experiment. The liver and kidney tissues specimens were fixed in 10% formalin and histological preparations were carried out then stained with H&E. Path

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