Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
Abstract
This study aims to identify the extent to which the criteria of the American Council for Teaching Foreign Languages (ACTFL) are included in the English language books for the fifth and sixth graders. To achieve the objective of the study, a content analysis card was prepared, where the classification of language proficiencies was divided into five main levels (beginner, intermediate, advanced, superior, and distinguished) of the four language skills (listening, speaking, reading, and writing), The content analysis card consisted of (89) indicators distributed at the four levels of language skills as follows: Listening (17), speaking (33), reading (15), and writing (26). The study sample consisted of Engl
... Show MoreDensity Functional Theory (DFT) with B3LYP hybrid exchange-correlation functional and 3-21G basis set and semi-empirical methods (PM3) were used to calculate the energies (total energy, binding energy (Eb), molecular orbital energy (EHOMO-ELUMO), heat of formation (?Hf)) and vibrational spectra for some Tellurium (IV) compounds containing cycloctadienyl group which can use as ligands with some transition metals or essential metals of periodic table at optimized geometrical structures.
The result revealed that the peak of population density of cabbage aphid Brevicoryne brassicae was 523.20 individuals/plant on 21 March in edges of rapeseed field and was 1141.67 individuals/plant in center of the field. Results revealed that population density of cabbage aphid in rapeseed fields surrounded by cover crops significantly were low compared with that of monoculture rapeseed. The location of rapeseed plants (in edges or in center) significantly affected (p<0.05) the tested pest density, e.g. optimum density was 146.69 individuals/plant in the center of the field. Whereas was 93.32 in the edges. Effect of the interaction between location and surrounding vegetation was significant on aphid density, which their population densit
... Show MoreThe purpose of this research is to a treatment the impact of Views outliers to the estimators of a distributed arrival and service to the theory of queues and estimate the distribution parameters depending on the robust estimators, and when he was outliers greatest impact in the process of estimating the both distributions mentioned parameters, it was necessary to use way to test that does these data contain abnormal values or not? it was used the method ( Tukey ) for this purpose and is of the most popular ways to discover the outliers , it shows that there are views abnormal (outliers ) in the estimators of each of the distributional arrival and service, which have a significant impact on the calculation of these estimato
... Show MoreRecent reports provided evidence that epithelial to mesenchymal transition (EMT) and some matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) contribute to the invasion and metastasis of cancer cells. This study investigated the expression pattern of some EMT markers (E-cadherin and Vimentin) and some MMPs (MMP-2 and MMP-9) in transitional cell carcinoma (TCC). Fifty five paraffin embedded biopsies were included in this study. Expression pattern of E-cadherin and Vimentin was evaluated by immunohistochemistry while cytoplasmic mRNA expression of both MMP-2 and MMP-9 were determined by in situ hybridization. The expression of all markers were significantly increased with the increase of patient's age (? 50 years), and furthermore an increase in men expression
... Show MoreAbstract: Two different shapes of offset optical fiber was studied based on coreless fiber for refractive index (RI)/concentration (con.) measurement, and compare them. These shapes are U and S-shapes, both shapes structures were formed by one segment of coreless fiber (CF) was joined between two single mode (SMF) lead in /lead out with the same displacement (12.268µm) at both sides, the results shows the high sensitive was achieved in a novel S-shape equal 98.768nm/RIU, to our knowledge, no one has ever mentioned or experienced it, it’s the best shape rather than the U-shape which equal 85.628nm/RIU. In this research, it was proved that the offset form has a significant effect on the sensitivity of the sensor. Addi
... Show MoreThe subject of the strategic vision is of great importance to all companies because they live in an environment of rapid change in various areas of life. Supports the performance of its operations in a better way, towards appropriate strategic growth and achieving success. The research aims to determine the level of interest of the researched company in the research variables (strategic vision and growth strategy), and the importance of the research came in being an attempt to provide the theoretical and scientific foundations for the research variables (strategic vision and growth strategy). As for the research method, it was relied on the descriptive analytical method, relying on the questionnaire as a means of obtaining data from the
... Show MoreOne of the most important parameters determining structural members' durability and strength is the fire flame's influence and hazard. Some engineers have advocated using advanced analytical models to predict fire spread impact within a compartment and considering finite element models of structural components to estimate the temperatures within a component using heat transfer analysis. This paper presented a numerical simulation for a reinforced concrete beam’s structural response in a case containing Water Absorbing Polymer Spheres (WAPS) subjected to fire flame effect. The commercial finite element package ABAQUS was considered. The relevant geometrical and material parameters of the reinforced concrete beam model at elevated t
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