Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
A new (Reversed Phase- High Performance Liquid chromatography) RP-HPLC method with Ultraviolet-Visible spectrophotometry has been optimized and validated for the simultaneous extraction and determination of antioxidants present in Iraqi calyces of Hibiscus Sabdraffia Linn. The method is based on using ultrasonic bath for extracting antioxidants. Limit of detection in μg/ml of Vitamin C, Sabdaretine, Gossypetine, Hibiscetine, Anthocyanins, Dephinidin-3-glucoside were113.8294×10-6,123.0453×10-6,70.3681×10-6,59.6730×10-6,148.1710×10-6,and125.3481×10-6 respectively. The concentration of antioxidants found in dry spacemen of calyces of Iraqi Hibiscus Sabdraffia Linn. under study: Vitamin C, Sabdaretine, Gossypetine, Hibiscetine, Anthoc
... Show MoreThe scholars differed very much in determining the grammatical doctrine of Ibn Qaysan. It was said that he confused between the two sects and took the two groups(1) and that he took from Abu Abbas the fox and Abu al-Abbas almabrd(2).He was descended from the two sheikhs almbrad and fox(3), This research to find out his grammatical opinions in the tools and grammatical words that appeared in the Book of Resonance of Multiplication to the many reported by Ibn Hayyan in it, he has seen the books of Ibn Kisan did not reach us.
The collection of these opinions and analysis is important for the scholars. Because the books of Ibn Kaysan specialized in grammar have lost their most important, the books that are similar to the book of Ibn al-Ha
The aim of the current study is to identify the effectiveness of cognitive conflict strategy in comprehending reading among literary fifth students in literature and literature texts. The researcher uses experimental method with partial control. The sample consisted of (80) students distributed into control and experimental groups. The scientific material, the behavioral goals, the teaching plans, and the instrument of the research have been prepared (reading comprehension test) by the researcher.
The instrument's validity and reliability have been calculated and then applied to the sample. After treating the data statistically by using SPSS, the results have revealed that there is a statistically significant difference at the si
... Show MoreThe purpose of this study was to know the reality of motivational administrative methods for academic decision-makers in the faculties of physical education and sports sciences in Baghdad from the perspective of faculty members. To solve the nature of the current problem, the two researchers used the descriptive approach of the survey method. The two researchers determined their research community by limiting the sample to all faculty members in the faculties of physical education and sports sciences in Baghdad (Al-Mustansiriya University, Al-Jadriya Univeristy & Al-Waziriyah University). Their number reached 314 faculty members and the two researchers determined their research community by 90%, so the research sam
... Show MoreBackground: This in vitro study was carried out to evaluate the effect of various endodontic irrigants (sodium hypochlorite, ethylene diaminetetracetic acid and normal saline) on sealing ability of (Biodentine, mineral trioxide aggregate, and amalgam) used to repair furcal perforations. Material and methods: One hundred and twenty extracted human molars with divergent roots were used in this study. A standard root canal access cavity was prepared in each tooth and furcal perforation was made and was standardized by using k file size 100 instrument to get a perforation of (1.32mm) in diameter .The teeth were randomly divided in to three groups of 40 teeth according to the type of material used to repair the perforations (Group A: The furcal
... Show Moreفي هذا العصر - الذي داهمت في الأخطار لغة الفصاحة والبيان - يبقى القرآن الكريم أعظم حافظ للغة السليمة ، وأكبر معين لأهلها للحفاظ على ثرائها وبلاغتها ، فهي باقية ببقائه ما بقي الليل والنهار .
وهذا البحث يدور حول حفظ القرآن الكريم وأثره على لغة الطفل، ويتكون من مقدمة : وفيها بيان أهمية الموضوع ، وخطة البحث ، ومنهجه، وثلاثة مباحث:
المبحث الأول : فضل حفظ القرآن الكريم ، وفوائد حفظه إجمالاً ، والمبحث الثاني :
... Show MoreThe present study has conducted to investigate the effect of hot aqueous extract of seeds and leaves of fenugreek (Trigonella foenum-graecum) on embryonic development in Swiss albino mice morphologically , the results is showed throught dosage pregnant female orally after period 4, 8, 12days at the beginning of pregnancy by doses 100 , 200 , 300 mg/kg of body weight , the results showed normal period of pregnancy 21 days and abortion did not occur when the pregnant mice take the hot aqueous extract of leaves of fenugreek, but the pregnant mice that take the hot aqueous extract of seeds of fenugreek occurred abortion of embryos and showed some histopathological changes in ovaries and uterus such as congestion, hemorrhage, necrosis, odema,
... Show MoreSome major pollutants of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) those discharged as water produced (WP) from the AlAhdab oil field (AOF) in the ponds close to it may leak to the water resources around and eventually reaches the marshes which will affect its ecosystem. Thus, this work aims to track the availability of PAH in the water resources and the Main Outfall Drain (MOD) nearby. The determination of PAH was evaluated using “High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC)”. The mean concentration of sixteen PAH in the produced water within the field was relatively high (0.01 to 10.89 g/ml) with standard deviations of (0.10.9). While, PAH outside the field were gradually diminishes down to (0.01-0.039) x10-2 g/ml which exceeds th
... Show MoreThis study focused on the expression and regulation of BRCA1 in breast cancer cell lines compared to normal breast. BRCA1 transcript levels were assessed by real time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) in the cancer cell lines. Our data show overexpression of BRCA1 mRNA level in all the studied breast cancer cell lines: MCF-7, T47D, MDA-MB-231 and MDA-MB-468 along with Jurkat, leukemia T-lymphocyte, the positive control, relative to normal breast tissue. To investigate whether a positive or negative correlation exists between BRCA1 and the transcription factor E2F6, three different si-RNA specific for E2F6 were used to transfect the normal and cancerous breast cell lines. Interestingly, strong negative relationship was found b
... Show MoreThe mechanism for selecting the President of the Republic and his constitutional powers under the Constitution of the Republic of Iraq